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| ▲ On the morning of the 28th, Shin and his family are participating in a full test at Antioch Church in Seo-gu, Gwangju, where the new coronavirus infection (Corona 19) group was confirmed. | |
| Ⓒ Yonhap News |
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The COVID-19 group infection from IM Mission is making the quarantine authorities embarrassing. The announcement of the new’social distancing adjustment plan’, originally scheduled for the 29th (today), was also postponed to the 31st. Previously, the government was considering downgrading social distancing, but the group infection initiated by IM Mission became a significant variable.
Just a week ago, the number of confirmed cases decreased to 300 on the 1st, but recently rose again to 500. The key is to determine whether the recent rise is only a temporary event or a precursor to the 4th pandemic. Prime Minister Jeong Sye-gyun expressed his concern at a meeting of the Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasures Headquarters on the 29th, saying, “It is difficult to determine as a temporary phenomenon caused by a large-scale group infection from the IM Mission, and some experts interpret it as a precursor to a pandemic.”
Currently, the government says that it is “a situation that is ambiguous to judge (whether it is a temporary phenomenon or the beginning of the 4th pandemic)” (Yoon Tae-ho, head of the quarantine and prevention headquarters of the Central Accident Recovery Headquarters). Since the fluctuation of the patient epidemic situation for a day or two is also an important analysis data, the government’s position is to make more time to judge.
If this is the outpost of the 4th pandemic, distancing easing is bound to be very cautious. This is more so because it is ahead of New Year’s Day, when a nationwide movement is expected. However, since the difficulties of small business owners have reached the extreme, there are also high voices that the regulation by distancing even a small amount should be released.
Experts have not concluded that the current situation is’recurrent’. However, the atmosphere is cautious about easing social distancing.
[이재갑 교수] “Until the Lunar New Year holidays, we must keep the current trend”
Lee Jae-gap, professor of infectious medicine at Hallym University’s Gangnam Sacred Heart Hospital, said, “Until the New Year holidays, the current trend must be maintained. If the quarantine is relaxed, the number of confirmed cases will inevitably increase. Was diagnosed. Professor Lee said, “It is true that self-employed people are in a difficult situation right now,” but he said, “But we have to think about whether the backlash will be more severe: lowering the level now and then raising the number of confirmed cases again, or extending the distance stage now. “He said.
He added, “It cannot be said that it is an ambiguous situation. Since it is an important moment in the Corona 19 epidemic, the current stance should be maintained even if it is difficult.”
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| ▲ The health club operated by trainer Kim Gwang-yeon, the chairman of the Korea Personal Trainer Council located in Seongnam, Gyeonggi-do, has closed with the implementation of the Corona 19 Social Distancing Phase 2.5. Currently, instructors are opening the door to check the equipment. | |
| Ⓒ Lee Hee-hoon |
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[김동현 교수] “It was breathtaking, but… I wonder if we are preparing for the 4th pandemic”
Professor Dong-Hyun Kim of the Department of Social Medicine, Hallym University School of Medicine (Chairman of the Korean Epidemiology Association) said, “After the first outbreak, the base level of confirmed patients is one place, after the second outbreak, there are 50 to 100 people, and after the third outbreak, 400 to 500 people.” “In this situation, when the 4th outbreak comes, the number of confirmed patients rises out of control, and I am curious if the government is preparing for that part.”
Professor Kim said, “If there are 400 to 500 people, it seems that they can respond well to quarantine right now, but if the number of confirmed cases is not lowered, a crisis will inevitably come,” he said. “So, we have to take a conservative approach to adjusting the distance.” Revealed.
He said, “It’s a golden time to revive the third crisis and fix the problems that were revealed at the time,” he said. “It’s not about the day-to-day confirmation, but looking ahead and preparing for the situation where ‘2000 confirmed cases’ appear. We have to do it now,” he suggested.
Professor Kim emphasized, “There is a need for support measures that can reduce complaints from self-employed persons while strengthening and maintaining quarantine. It is necessary to set up business restrictions through consultation with the industry, not through the existing one-way type.” In particular, he argued, “It is a problem that compensation for self-employed people has been treated as a political battle for so far,” and he argued, “As it is clear that the discontinuation of business of self-employed people contributed to quarantine, large-scale support should be provided as in Japan and Europe.”
[정기석 교수] “National sacrifice is a big situation… 10 family gatherings should be allowed”
Hallym University professor Jeong Ki-seok (former head of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) predicted that the number of confirmed cases will not increase rapidly for the time being.
Professor Jeong said, “IM Mission is just one group infection case,” he said. “Because the quarantine measures so far prevented a major explosion, it is expected to decrease gradually for the time being.”
However, Professor Jeong added, “When you take down the distance step, you have to do it carefully. The 2.5 step in the metropolitan area must be maintained.”
However, Professor Jeong suggested that the ban on private gatherings with more than 5 people should be eased. He said, “In a situation where the people’s pain and sacrifice are great, it is correct to allow family gatherings for less than 10 people even if they refrain from outside gatherings or dinner parties. Instead, the government has taken the blind spots in violation of quarantine measures in step 2.5. It must be properly managed,” he added.
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| ▲ On January 24, 127 students and faculty members were diagnosed with Corona 19 at the IM Mission IEM International School located in Daeheung-dong, Jung-gu, Daejeon. The photo shows the police and quarantine authorities working on the transfer of confirmed patients to the Asan Life Therapy Center and closing the building on the 25th. | |
| Ⓒ Oh My News Jang Jae-wan |
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[정재훈 교수] “The 4th pandemic will eventually come, the goal is to delay the timing”
Jeong Jae-hoon, a professor in the Department of Preventive Medicine, Gachon University School of Medicine, said, “It is good for the quarantine authorities to keep the level of 2.5 and keep the sense of crisis, but if the people are to endure, it is necessary to lower the stage of distancing.” In order to do so, step mitigation needs to be taken gently and slowly.”
According to mathematical modeling, the peak of the 4th pandemic predicted by Professor Jeong is between March 4th and April 23rd. The pandemic won’t happen right now, but he argues that this point should be delayed as much as possible.
Professor Jeong said, “The 4th pandemic will eventually come, but it is the solution to delay the timing as much as possible.” “I emphasized.