Han Kyung-yeon’s BSI survey result recorded 96.6… 4.9p higher than the previous month
The economic experience of domestic companies in February this year recorded 96.6, an increase of 4.9 points (p) from the previous month. This outlook is interpreted as reflecting the expectations of the true phase of the third corona19 epidemic. The outlook for January earnings (97.1) also rose 3.7p MoM, but the negative outlook remained dominant.
The Korea Economic Research Institute (Kyung-Yeon Han), affiliated with the National Federation of Entrepreneurs, announced on the 26th that the result of a Business Survey Index (BSI) survey conducted on 600 companies in terms of sales was found as such.
BSI is an indicator that examines the judgment of a company’s current business situation and its future prospects. In general, if the index is over 100, it is judged that the economy is good, and if it is less than 100, the economy is judged to be bad.
According to Han Kyung-yeon, the perceived economy of the non-manufacturing industry, including the service industry, was 98.8, up 11.9p from the previous month. However, the manufacturing industry recorded 94.9, down 0.3p from the previous month.
In the case of the non-manufacturing industry, the positive outlook expanded, focusing on the construction industry (105.4) and wholesale and retail distribution (102.3). Han Kyung-yeon analyzed that the expectations for improved consumer sentiment and increased business orders were reflected in the calming phase of the third corona19 epidemic.
In the manufacturing industry, it was found that some seasonal factors, such as a decrease in the number of working days due to the Lunar New Year holidays, were reflected, leading to a relatively sluggish outlook.
However, in the case of major industries such as semiconductors and petrochemicals, the overall outlook was good. The forecasts for electronics and communication equipment (104.2), including semiconductors, and petrochemicals (103.3), exceeded the 100 mark for two consecutive months. In the case of automobiles (91.2), it rebounded 13.8p from the previous month.
Han Gyeong-yeon explained, “The improvement in earnings, such as the recent strong exports of flagship items, served as a positive factor for companies to recognize the economy.”
Looking at the outlook by sector, △domestic (93.4) △Exports (92.4) △Investment (96.3) △Employment (96.6) △Funds (96.1) △Profitability (96.1) △Inventory (99.5). It scored less than 100. In the case of inventory, if it is over 100, it means an excess of inventory and is classified as a negative answer.
Han Kyung-yeon explained, “Although the investment and employment prospects are still below the 100 line, investment and employment rose by 7.0p and 6.5p compared to the previous month, recovering the level before the Corona 19 crisis.”
Han Kyung-yeon analyzed that expectations for easing uncertainties, such as the inauguration of US President Biden and the commercialization of the Corona 19 vaccine, were reflected in the investment and employment sector.
Meanwhile, the January earnings forecast was 97.1, up 3.7p from 93.4 in the previous month, but it was still below the 100 line.
By sector, all sectors such as △domestic demand (95.3) △export (97.1) △investment (92.1) △employment (97.6) △financing (97.1) △ profitability (98.2) △inventory (101.3) were below the baseline of 100.
Gwang-ho Choo, head of the economic policy department, Gyeong-yeon Han, said, “The economic outlook is showing a positive trend, centering on key industries, as uncertainties at home and abroad have eased.” It is necessary to prepare an active policy for this.”
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