“A new game in Northeast Asia, China will be defeated and Japan will rise”

The world and geopolitics of each student

The world and geopolitics of each student
Written by Peter Jaihan
Translated by Jisoo Hong
Kim & Kim Books

Two weeks have passed since US President Joe Biden took office. Biden has committed a lot of change, but compared to the days of his predecessor Donald Trump, it still seems to be the same. In particular, the trend of the United States gradually taking its steps away from the world order is expected to become even more pronounced in the Biden government. World Geopolitics Strategist Peter Jaihan wrote 『The World and Geopolitics of Each Student』 is a book that predicts changes in the world order under the premise of this’absence’ of the United States, which has been’patrolling’ the world so far.

We are most interested in the game change in Northeast Asia. Jaihan never agrees that China will soon catch up with the United States. Rather, China insists that it is likely to fail and that the success story will end. Even within 10 years.

According to Jaihan’s perspective, China is facing a crisis of interlocking in finance, consumption, energy, raw material import, product export, and manufacturing. Like the United States, China has no capacity to use force as needed to secure raw materials and export markets, or to diversify the domestic economy. When the fantastic combination of conditions that have made China’s rise so far possible is torn down, China will experience a terrible fall of intensity equivalent to a dazzling injury. These conditions have always been out of control of China in the past and are still the case, so the fall of China is a fixed fact, and it is only when it will be.

On the other hand, it is giving generous evaluation to Japan. Japan, which had a severe experience of’lost 30 years’ after the New York Plaza Agreement in September 1985, seems to have started reactivating the superpower mode. Japan has already moved away from an export-oriented economy, and has become a master of desourcing by relocating production facilities to other countries and selling products to that country’s market. It is free from the disadvantages of exchange rates, military and political obstacles, and tariff barriers.

What will the Northeast Asian order look like in the Biden era? The appearance of the US nuclear port, Mo Reagan. [사진 미 해군]

According to Jaihan, the United States unofficially selected Japan as the leader of the Asian region to replace the United States. The United States has officially urged the Japanese government to reinterpret the constitutional provisions restricting military action so that Japan can deal directly with China. The United States is also making Japan as fictitious as possible through information sharing and military technology transfer. Jaihan’s view is that when the conflict ends in Asia, a fundamentally new order in which Japan has the upper hand will begin.

In that case, the most extreme change in the situation will be experienced by South Korea and North Korea. When Russia declines, the US withdraws, and China is at a crossroads between collapse or retreat, most of the options disappear. Jaihan says it would be the smartest option to find a way to virtually converge economically with the emerging Japan.

Japan is the only country that can help Korea to solve structural economic problems, Jaihan argues, that it is the only country that can help keep access to foreign markets. I don’t know how Jaihan’s proposal will be accepted in Korea, but serious preparations should be made for changes in international dynamics following the re-emergence of Japan.

This book predicts’chessboard changes’ not only in Asia, but in almost all parts of the world. The unsuccessful superpower Russia, headwind Germany, France trying to become a leader, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey’s struggle for hegemony in the Middle East were also analyzed in depth based on knowledge and knowledge.

Reporter Han Kyunghwan [email protected]