[경제전문가 신년 설문]
“The wrong policy is’reconstruction regulation’
Supply should be increased by raising the floor area ratio.”
Seven out of ten economic experts predicted that the real estate market will continue to be unsettled in the new year. This is because there is no sign that the problem of supply-demand mismatch triggered by the 3 lease law due to the shortage of supply in the city center will be easily resolved. Experts strongly advised that the new Minister of Land, Infrastructure and Transport Byun Chang-heum should increase the supply of quality urban housing through deregulation on redevelopment and reconstruction.
According to a New Year’s survey of 100 experts from Seoul Economic Daily on the 31st, 73 respondents said,’Market unrest will continue in 2021′. Next, 13 people predicted that’it will stabilize from the first half of June 1, the standard date for imposing the comprehensive real estate tax,’ and 6 people thought that it was’depending on additional government measures.’ This is contrary to the government’s expectation that the market will be caught by multi-homeowners pouring out their products as a punitive taxation that tightens loans and greatly increases the tax rates such as tax, acquisition tax, and capital gains tax. In the market, there is a widespread view that unrest in the jeonse market continues as supply and demand fluctuates, and house prices continue to rise in the capital area.
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Experts analyzed that despite the current government’s countermeasures 24 times, the jeonse riots and the ‘Young Kol’ frenzy were largely influenced by the side effects of the 3 Lease Act in a situation where urban supply was insufficient. To the question (multiple answers) asking’Most Wrong Real Estate Policy’, the most common answers cited’Lack of supply in the city center (63%), including strengthening reconstruction regulations’ and’Enforcement of the 3rd Lease Act (60%)’. Next,’Too frequent real estate measures (39%)”Public rental supply policy that is far from preference for real demand (33%)”Restriction of demand such as strengthening loan regulations (28%)’ It was in the order of’Vertical tax rate increase (25%)’.
As a plan that Minister Byeon must urgently promote to stabilize the real estate market, the majority of them agreed to “expand the supply of high-quality housing in hand”. One expert said, “It is necessary to increase the floor area ratio and expand supply where there is demand,” while another said, “It is necessary to actively promote reconstruction and redevelopment in the city.” It means that simply increasing the number of rental homes is not all about it, but it means that you should focus on the local supply that people prefer.
Some pointed out that it is necessary to distinguish between speculative demand and real demand while opening a retreat while minimizing market intervention. One expert stressed that “excessive regulations and taxes on real estate should be lowered,” and another expert suggested that “temporarily lift the heavy duty transfer tax for multi-homeowners to induce an increase in the supply of property.” It is interpreted to mean that shifting the government-centered public housing supply policy toward the private sector will help stabilize the market.
/ Sejong = Reporter Hwang Jeong-won [email protected]
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