49.5% “Expected to change regime to No”… Both the presidential election and the presidential election turned to public sentiment [입소스]

The prospect of winning the opposition in the Seoul and Busan mayoral elections in April and the presidential election in March next year came out on the 1st. Particularly in the middle class, this opinion was empowered. Disciplinary action against Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-yeol, soaring real estate prices, legislative independence, failure to quarantine the novel coronavirus infection (Corona 19), and securing latent vaccines appear to have acted as bad factors.

Ipsos, a research specialist, asked SBS from December 28th to 30th, targeting 1001 men and women aged 18 and over nationwide, asking “how to predict the outcome of the by-election”, and as a result,’the opposition will win’ 39.2% of the respondents predicted that it was out of the margin of error (the sample error was ±3.1% points at the 95% confidence level). On the other hand, 24.3% of respondents predicted the victory of the ruling party, and 21% said they will take one place each.

In particular, among the respondents who classified their political orientation as’moderate’, 44.5% of the respondents answered’opposition victory’, which was 25.6 percentage points ahead of the ruling party’s victory (18.9%). As for the meaning of this election, 51.5% of the respondents said that it was’intermediate evaluation of the current government’, higher than that of’the election for the right person for local administration’ (44.9%).

Regarding the results of next year’s presidential election, 49.5% of the opinions that’it is desirable to change the government to the opposition party’ appeared, ahead of’recreation of the ruling party’ (42.8%). Similar to the by-election, among respondents with a moderate tendency, opinions expecting a’regime change’ (54.5%) were 19.3 percentage points higher.

Among the people mentioned as candidates,’TOP 3′, including Gyeonggi Governor Lee Jae-myung (23.6%), Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-yeol (18.5%), and Democratic Party representative Lee Nak-yeon (16.7%), fought fiercely within the margin of error.

After that, independent lawmaker Hong Joon-pyo (4.1%), former lawmaker Seung-min Yoo (4.0%) from the People’s Power, former Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon (3.2%), Justice Party lawmaker Shim Sang-jeong (2.3%), Prime Minister Jeong Se-gyun (1.5%), Justice Minister Chu Miae (1.2%) followed by Won Hee-ryong, Jeju branch (0.8%). Prime Minister Chung made a statement on SBS Radio on the same day to the effect that he asked him not to be included in the polls list, but he added his name to this poll.

The party approval rate was 35.4% for the Democratic Party, 24.1% for the People’s Power, 7.9% for the Justice Party, 5.1% for the People’s Party, and 4% for the Open Democratic Party.

Meanwhile, 54% of the respondents said that President Moon Jae-in was “doing wrong” regarding the conduct of state affairs, which was the lowest ever recorded by the broadcaster. ‘You’re doing well’ was 41.3%, down 10.1 percentage points from July last year.

In addition, when asked about the appropriateness of President Moon’s attitude toward the disciplinary process of President Yoon, 54.6% of the respondents said,’It was not an attitude to be responsible, and it was inappropriate to apologize late.’ The response was 41.6%.

Regarding the disciplinary action against Yoon, led by Minister Chu, 53.4% ​​of respondents said that it is unfair for political purposes to retire. On the other hand, 39.2% of the respondents answered that it is fair to respond to the suspicion according to the law, which was 14.2 percentage points lower.

The survey was conducted by wired/wireless telephone interview (wired RDD 10%, wireless 90%). The response rate is 15.1%. For more information on the survey, refer to the Ipsos homepage and the central election poll deliberation committee homepage.

Reporter Seok-Hyun Ko [email protected]