[2021 테크기상도] Semiconductors, which are also good at corona, will start stretching in the new year

Input 2020.12.31 06:00

It was a year in which major industries in many countries were hit by a direct hit due to the prolonged COVID-19 outbreak of demand decline and supply disruption. There is a cautious prospect that the global economy will rebound in a V-shape once the corona 19 vaccination is made in earnest around the world this year. Our industry is also expected to be a better new year than this year thanks to the economic recovery in developed countries, which are major export markets.

Many experts believe that the non-face-to-face economy activated through Corona 19 will accelerate even after the end of the infectious disease. This is expected to have a direct impact on semiconductors, smartphones, and games, which are the main export items of Korea. The Chosun Biz ICT team prepared a New Year’s weather forecast for six major tech industries, including △semiconductor, △display, △smartphone, △TV and home appliance, △internet, and game. We ask for your interest. [편집자 주]

[신년기획] ① Semiconductor
Semiconductor exports to Korea are expected to increase by 10% from this year to $102.7 billion
Non-face-to-face economy activated by Corona 19, memory demand likely to increase due to full-scale 5G
Samsung, the first system semiconductor sales expected since its inception thanks to the foundry of 20 trillion won

It is predicted that semiconductor exports, which account for about 20% of Korea’s exports, will exceed 100 billion dollars next year. Annual export of 100 billion dollars of semiconductors has been in three years.

Recently, semiconductor exports have been growing for 5 consecutive months despite prolonged Corona 19 and China’s Huawei sanctions. Accordingly, it is estimated that the annual market size will reach 97.8 billion dollars this year. It is similar to the size of the market in 2017 (US$ 97.9 billion), when demand for semiconductor chips began to increase in earnest with the start of the big data era. This is why there are expectations that the semiconductor supercycle (long-term boom) will begin in earnest in the new year. The Korea International Trade Association predicts that the semiconductor market in 2021 will increase by 10% from this year to 107.2 billion dollars (about 118 trillion won).

Ahn Ki-hyun, executive director of the Korea Semiconductor Industry Association, said, “The 5G (5th generation mobile communication) service, which was delayed due to Corona 19, will be expanded in earnest, and as telecommuting and online education have become a new standard in life, Exports of all semiconductors will increase,” he predicted.

◇ Samsung·SK Hynix’s operating profit doubles next year

Global market research institutes also predict that the semiconductor market will grow next year. The average of the market size predicted by the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics Organization (WSTS), Omdia, and Gartner for next year is $47.1 billion (about 520 trillion won), which is expected to increase by 8% from this year. Overall, the demand for semiconductors is expected to increase, but it is believed that supply will not be able to keep up.

When this happens, the price of semiconductors rises, and Samsung Electronics (005930), SK hynix (000660)The performance of the same companies also improves. Taking a look at F&Guide and Shinhan Investment Corp., the operating profits of Samsung Electronics’ semiconductor division and SK Hynix, which are evaluated to be good at Corona 19 this year, are expected to nearly double next year (See graphic below).

In particular, the industry sees that the DRAM boom, which has greatly affected the performance of the two companies, will drive this growth. Market research firm Trend Force predicts that the demand for server replacement will increase DRAM prices due to the increase in demand for smartphones and the launch of Intel’s new central processing unit (CPU).

System semiconductors, especially foundries (semiconductor consignment production), are also observed to have full-scale results from next year. The industry estimates that Samsung Electronics’ sales in the system semiconductor division, which was less than 15 trillion won in the past five years, increased to close to 17 trillion won this year and will reach 20 trillion won for the first time since its inception next year.

Samsung Electronics is promising that it will invest 133 trillion won by 2030 to diversify its memory semiconductor-centered portfolio to become the world’s No. 1 in system semiconductors. It is observed that the fruits of these efforts will begin in 2021. Trend Force predicts that Samsung Electronics, which is pursuing TSMC in the global foundry market, will increase by 1 percentage point from this year’s estimate to 18%.

Professor Park Jae-geun of Hanyang University (President of the Korea Semiconductor Display Technology Association) said, “When the 5G era begins in earnest, the demand for CPU and graphic processing units (GPU) in the data center market is inevitably increasing as the data usage explodes. “Samsung has no choice but to make an achievement in that there are only two places, TSMC and Samsung Electronics in Taiwan.”

◇ Beginning of the Biden era… US-China semiconductor hegemony war is a variable

However, experts point out that the trade dispute between the US and China is always a variable to pay attention to in the global semiconductor market. The US has imposed high-strength sanctions against Huawei, which is at the forefront of China’s semiconductor industry, in order to continue its leadership in the semiconductor market.

The United States has a new administration for Joe Biden in the new year. In the industry, as the US semiconductor hegemony cannot be taken away, the Biden administration is also seeing that it will have to maintain a similar trend. It is the degree of difference between the level and method of sanctions.

Even inside China, the view that the Biden administration does not expect to take a sharply different route to China from the Trump administration is dominant. On the premise of personal opinion at a recent video forum for media exchange between Korea and China, “Biden administration is expected to take an external position afterwards because there is not a lot of time required for solving domestic problems.” The line of sanctions on the industry will not change soon and will continue.”

Another task is to continuously stabilize the global supply chain of semiconductor materials, parts, and equipment that is being upgraded by Japanese export regulations. Professor Park Jae-geun said, “As the supply chain of small, deputy, and chiefs entering semiconductors is still unstable, two-track efforts must be continued to support the pursuit of advanced countries and to foster small, deputy, and chief technology for new technologies.”