[2021 코로나시대, 생존이 곧 전략②] “The KOSPI 3000 era will open”…Donghak ant still hungry

The power of corporate profit growth + liquidity… Stock prices move up the KOSPI target
Vaccine supply advances semiconductor supercycle… Increased earnings forecast significantly
New IT technology themes such as 5G and foldable are also promising

In The News Reporter Seo-Jung Kimㅣ Last year, the domestic stock market was recorded as a year that remains in history. Not only did the KOSPI exceed an all-time high despite the big bad news of Corona 19, but it also showed extreme volatility, ranging from 1400 to 2800 points. Daejangju Samsung Electronics broke through 80,000 won and stood in front of a road that it had never been to.

Stock prices are generally predicting that the new year’s stock market will continue to rise. It is expected that companies’ profits will improve on the back of the economic recovery, and abundant global liquidity will support the market. In the case of domestic stock markets, so-called’Donghak Ant’ is leading the power of liquidity.

Of course, there are voices of concern that there is a valuation burden as it has shown a sharp rise in the short term. We believe that if companies’ performance improvement is not as good as expected, they may be under pressure to realize profits. It is also a major variable at what point Corona 19 will enter an end phase due to the vaccine effect.

◇ Donghak ants led the Gyeongja year stock market… Shall we try hard for the new year?

At the center of the domestic stock market last year were millions of Donghak ants. Donghak ants quickly emerged as the central axis of the Korean stock market, sweeping over 60 trillion won of stocks a year without surrendering to the constant sales tax of foreigners and institutions.

According to the Financial Investment Association, over 5.6 million new stock accounts were opened last year. Individuals’ credit loan balance has risen to around 19 trillion won, which is twice the level of the beginning of the year.

As a result, there are also concerns that the speculation fever in the stock market caused excessive bubbles. Historically, it is a view that there are many cases in which stock prices have plummeted due to an instantaneous burst of bubbles when credit volumes are excessive.

However, given that stock deposits, which can be called stock market funds, are still over 60 trillion won and the trend of low interest rates continues, the observation that the huge money move will continue this year is predominant.

An official from the financial investment industry said, “Amid the trend of zero interest rates, funds that were tied to real estate and bonds continue to flow into the stock market.” “It is expected that individual smart money will be pushed to the stock market again this year.”

◇ Performance growth added to liquidity… “The KOSPI 3000 era will open”

The stock market is also facing a friendly environment as large-scale money-offs are made around the world to overcome the Corona 19 crisis. The so-called’liquidity market’ is in full swing.

In the new year, this liquidity is expected to have a positive effect on the stock market rise. Ahn So-eun, a researcher at IBK Investment & Securities, predicted that the Fed’s willingness to continue monetary easing, confirmed again at FOMC in December, will support the stock market.

This explains that low interest rates and liquidity conditions are bridging the gap between stock prices and fundamentals. Researcher Ahn said, “Considering the lag between vaccinations and the impact of re-proliferation in winter, the gap between stock price fundamentals will continue.” “If liquidity conditions continue, the stock market adjustment will be limited.”

Along with this liquidity, the earnings forecasts of domestic companies are continuously rising, which is a background for the positive stock market outlook. KB Securities raised its net profit in the securities market to KRW 135 trillion and presented this year’s KOSPI estimate at 3200 points.

Lee Eun-taek, a researcher at KB Securities, said, “This year’s KOSPI net profit was raised by 52% compared to the previous year, and “Vaccine dissemination faster than originally expected is speeding up the semiconductor supercycle. “In addition to the strengthening of the weakening dollar trend, the strength of commodities and currencies in emerging economies will boost earnings estimates for the secret and domestic sectors.”

◇ Semiconductor pulled, 5G foldable pushed

The question is whether you can meet these elevated eye levels. Experts predict that while semiconductors are at the forefront, IT technology stocks such as 5G and foldable will record high earnings growth and meet the increased stock market valuation.

Semiconductor, which belongs to two-top domestic stock market (Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix), is expected to play a central role in raising the level of profits of domestic companies this year. Of this year’s net profit consensus of 129 trillion won, semiconductors account for 42 trillion won.

It is also positive that the growth rate of semiconductor exports has steadily improved recently. The year-on-year growth rate of cumulative exports for three months reached a low of -3.9% in May this year, and has been on the rise, recording 12.7% in November.

Jongwoo Yoo, a researcher at Korea Investment & Securities, recommended a portfolio centered on Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and front-end equipment makers, saying, “DRAM prices are expected to rebound from the first quarter of this year and NAND will also turn upward from the second half of this year.”

New IT technology themes such as 5G and foldable are also counted as promising sectors. The stock prices of these sectors have declined as they did not show any remarkable performance last year, but it is highly likely to become the leading stock this year.

Kim Sang-ho, a researcher at Shinhan Financial Investment, analyzed that “The 5G theme is expected to increase operating profit by 235% next year due to the resumption of investment by three domestic telecom companies and the start of full-fledged 5G investments in Japan and China, mainly in the US.”

“Foldables are expected to increase their operating profit by 55.0% and 43.8%, respectively, due to the launch of popular foldable phones and the rebound in shipments.” I have it.”

Accordingly, the domestic stock market is expected to see fierce competition for yields starting from the new year based on the power of liquidity and expectations for economic improvement. In particular, as in last year, attention is paid to how far the propaganda of the Donghak ants will continue after pressing foreigners and institutions.