[2021 증시 진단] KOSPI 3000 “second quarter” advantage… Upper and lower> Upper and lower

Ahead of the’Year of the Cow’ in the new year of 2021, a parade of vehicle lights continues behind the bull statue in front of the Yeouido Financial Investment Association, Yeongdeungpo-gu, Seoul. 020.12.27/News1 © News1 Reporter Song Won-young

Five out of 10 heads of research centers at major domestic securities firms predicted that this year’s KOSPI index will hit the highest level in the second quarter (April to June) with the trend of’up and down’. The reason is that the first half of the year is the time when the economic recovery momentum strengthens due to the vaccine vaccination against Corona 19.

On the other hand, the three heads of the research center predicted that the peak in the fourth quarter (October-December) will be set amid a’low and low’ trend, reflecting factors such as increased inflation pressure and resumed short selling. If short selling is in mind in March, it is predicted that corrections could come in the first and second quarters.

1 day <뉴스1>Eun Kyobo Securities (Kim Hyung-ryul), Mirae Asset Daewoo (Seo Cheol-soo), Samsung Securities (Oh Hyun-seok), Shin Young Securities (Kim Hak-gyun), Shinhan Financial Investment (Yun Chang-yong), SK Securities (Choi Seok-won), KB Securities (Shin Dong-jun, Yoo Seung-chang), Kiwoom Securities (Kim Ji-san ), Hana Financial Investment (Cho Yong-jun), Hyundai Motor Securities (No Geun-chang), etc., surveyed about the prospects of the New Year’s stock market.

As a result, Hyundai Motor Company, Shinhan Investment Corp., SK Securities, Kiwoom Securities, and Hana Financial Investment Corp. answered that the stock market for next year shows a high and low trend, and is likely to reach a high in the second quarter. On the other hand, three companies, KB Securities, Kyobo Securities, and Samsung Securities, predicted that the KOSPI index will show high and low, and will record the highest in the fourth quarter. Mirae Asset Daewoo and Shinyoung Securities did not provide index and quarterly forecasts.

◇Looking up and down> Up and down… “KOSPI goes up to 3300”

Kim Ji-san, head of Kiwoom Securities Research Center, who presented the trend of’up and down’ and the outlook for the highest in the second quarter, said, “Export and economic momentum will peak in the second quarter due to the corona 19 vaccine.” “Semiconductors, chemicals, automobiles, etc. “The earnings outlook is on an upward trend.”

“Based on the base effect, the export growth rate is expected to peak in the second quarter, and the KOSPI peak will be formed at a similar time,” said Cho Yong-joon, head of Hana Financial Investment Research Center. Presented ~2850.

Noh Geun-chang, head of Hyundai Motor Securities Research Center, said, “As the expected performance of major companies in the first half is expected to exceed market expectations, the KOSPI index will record a high in the second quarter, showing a high and low trend.”

On the other hand, Oh Hyun-suk, head of Samsung Securities Research Center, who predicted’up and down’, said, “It is judged that the global asset market sentiment has been near overheating since the end of October last year with affirmations related to the approval of the use of Corona 19 vaccine in major countries and the initiation of vaccination and stimulus for mid- to long-term policies. said.

Kyobo Securities Research Center Director Kim Hyung-ryul said, “It is expected to reach the highest level in the fourth quarter as the KOSPI rise continues until 2022.” Shin Dong-jun and Yoo Seung-chang, heads of the KB Securities Research Center, said, “The stock market is expected to be adjusted from the end of the first quarter to the beginning of the second quarter due to increased inflation pressure and the resume of short selling.

KB Securities, Hyundai Motor Securities, Shinhan Financial Investment, and Kiwoom Securities predicted that the top of the KOSPI would exceed the 3000 line this year. Among them, KB Securities presented the top of the KOSPI as the highest 3300 line among major securities companies. Shinhan Investment Corp. (2400~3200), Hyundai Motor Securities (2500~3000), and Kiwoom Securities (top 3000) also viewed the possibility of the KOSPI 3000 era.

Yoon Chang-yong, a researcher at Shinhan Financial Investment, said, “Expanding quantitative easing by the Fed, increasing fiscal expenditures in each country, and improving the semiconductor industry are driving up the stock market.” “The semiconductor industry seems to have confirmed its bottom last year and turned around, and there is a possibility that profits will rise until next year. It is high,” he explained.

Hana Financial Investment (2450~2910), SK Securities (2450~2900), Samsung Securities (2100~2850), and Kyobo Securities (2200~2800) fell below 3000.

On the afternoon of the 30th, the last trading day of the stock market in 2020, the KOSPI index increased 52.96p (1.88%) compared to the previous day on the electronic board of the Korea Exchange in Yeouido, Yeongdeungpo-gu, Seoul to 2873.47. The KOSPI index, which started off weakly, pushed to the 2809 line during the intraday, but increased its rise thanks to the inflow of foreign net buying. It hit an all-time high for 4 consecutive trading days. 2020.12.30/News1 © News1 Reporter Min Kyung-seok

◇”Expectation for economic recovery and positive for corporate profit growth”… What are the negative factors?

The heads of research centers at securities companies cited expectations for an economic recovery, increased profits of domestic companies, improved semiconductor industry conditions, and inflows from individual investors as positive factors for this year’s stock market.

Noh Geun-chang, head of the Hyundai Motor Securities Research Center, said, “The recovery of the semiconductor economy and the preference for risky assets arising from the weak dollar will be a positive factor in the stock market.” Hak-gyun Kim, head of the research center for Shinyoung Securities, said, “Improving growth rates, increasing corporate profits, and funding the stock market. Monetary policy favorable to the mobility and asset markets is positive for the stock market environment.”

“KOSPI has in common that it renewed the reported price when switching from a liquidity market to an earnings market after the crisis,” said Cho Yong-joon, head of the Hana Geumtu Center. “As the stock restocking cycle (reconstruction period after inventory decline) in anticipation of an economic recovery, Corporate profits will enter an upward trend.”

The government’s New Deal policy is also expected to play a positive role in the stock market. “As the possibility of continuing the 0% interest rate increases for the time being, the relative attractiveness of the stocks will be effective,” said Yoon Chang-yong, head of the Shinhan Gold Investment Center. “New Deal policy-related stocks, which are invested in earnest from next year, will benefit.”

However, there are concerns that the increased valuation burden as the KOSPI index marched to an all-time high could be negative. The resumption of short selling in March, the Biden administration’s big tech regulation, and the re-emergence of the US-China conflict were also cited as negative factors.

SK Securities Research Center head Choi Seok-won said, “Stock prices have risen, and political conditions such as conflict between the US and North Korea can affect the stock market.” Hak-gyun Kim, head of the Shinyoung Securities Center, said that the stock market’s valuation and inflation burdens were negative. I chose it as an element.

Shin Dong-jun and Yoo Seung-chang, heads of KB Securities Center, said, “Since President Biden took office, there is a high possibility that anti-monopoly regulations on tech dinosaurs will begin in earnest, and as the issue of replacing the chairman of the Fed at the end of this year is highlighted, the direction of monetary policy may be uncertain.” After the stock market was adjusted, short selling and reopening were also negative factors.”

Seo Cheol-soo, director of Mirae Asset Daewoo Research, said, “For certain sectors, expectations are reflected ahead of time, leading to signs of overload, and the possibility of a small cycle peak in the first half of the IT sector, the possibility of strengthening US protection trade and intensifying conflict with China are also negative.”

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