[2021 전망]①”The nationwide house price and total rent will continue to rise next year”

△E-Daily 2021 house price forecast survey result (total 32 respondents)

[이데일리 하지나 기자] Experts predict that both house prices and rental prices will rise next year. In particular, 9 out of 10 predicted an increase in house prices in the Seoul and metropolitan areas. Experts assessed that there are still insufficient measures to supply’young-cheol’, such as the government’s pre-subscription to the third new city and supply of private rental housing.

On the 29th, EDaily conducted a 2021 real estate forecast survey conducted by 32 experts from various fields, including real estate information companies, academia, and construction companies, ahead of the New Year, and 87.5% (28) said, “Next year house prices in Seoul and the metropolitan area will rise. Will”. There were 3 and 1 respondents who answered’both’ and’down’. The percentage of experts who said that local house prices would rise was also 59.4% (19 people).

Experts pointed out the supply shortage and the jeonse crisis as the background of rising house prices. It is explained that while the number of occupants in Seoul is expected to decrease next year, it will raise the trading price due to the rise in jeonse prices and lockdown.

At the same time, experts selected Gangnam, Seocho, Songpa (Gangnam 3 district) and Mapo, Yongsan, Seongdong-gu (Mayongseong) as notable areas next year. Respondents who pointed to’the metropolitan area including regulated areas’ also showed that 40.6% (13 people). It is believed that investment sentiment could return to the metropolitan area by designating regulated areas across the country.

Experts suggested’activating maintenance projects such as reconstruction and redevelopment’ in downtown Seoul as an additional supply measure. Of the 23 experts who answered that there was a lack of supply measures, 85.2% of the 23 respondents (multiple responses possible) answered this way. Next, large-scale housing site development (29.6%), such as the green belt lift, and residential improvement projects (25.9%), such as the Urban Regeneration New Deal project were followed.

△E-Daily survey result of 2021 total price forecast (total 32 respondents)

In particular, the nationwide average of 6.54% this year (KB Kookmin Bank’s statistics) rises, the jeonse value is predicted to continue to rise next year, raising concerns. 93.8% (30) of respondents said that next year’s rent in Seoul will increase due to the low interest rate, increased holding tax burden, and the implementation of a new lease law (receiving the right to apply for contract renewal and the monthly tax limit). In the provinces, 59.4% (19 people) predicted an increase in the rental price.

“The core factors that directly and indirectly affect real estate are the real economy, policy, supply and demand, interest rates, liquidity, psychology, and overseas real estate trends.” “The steeply rising jeonse price is also a leading indicator and is expected to act as a pressure to increase the trading value.”

However, some opinions that the real estate market will stabilize from the second half of the year, as the capital gains tax and comprehensive real estate tax are strengthened from next June, with the emergence of quick sales centered on the volume of multi-homed people and corporations. Seo Won-seok, a professor at the Department of Urban Planning and Real Estate at Chung-Ang University, said, “Government regulations and reinforced real estate policies such as the strengthening of the transfer tax will continue next year,” he said. “The house prices in Seoul and the metropolitan area will remain flat.”