[2021 부동산 전망] “Absolute shortage of supply…the price of houses will rise next year”

The rise in house prices, which rose sharply this year, is expected to continue next year. This is because ultra-low interest rates and abundant circulating funds are stimulating the real estate market, and there is an absolute shortage of occupants in Seoul.

According to Real Estate 114 on the 27th, the number of apartments in the country next year will be 276,649 households, which will decrease by 25% from this year (36,2815 households). Compared to the average supply volume for the last five years (2016-2020), this is a 30% decrease.

In particular, the number of apartments in Seoul next year is 28,931 households, which is a 41% drop from this year’s (48,860 households).

Lim Byeong-cheol, senior researcher at Real Estate 114, said, “The continuing imbalance in supply and demand for cheonsei is expected to act as a pressure to increase sales along with the increase in jeonse prices.” “With the effect of the new lease method, jeonse property lockdown is expected to continue. “It seems to be a factor.”

Myung-sook Ahn, head of the Real Estate Investment Support Center of Woori Bank, said, “The government is giving a signal that the supply is continuously increasing, but it is true that the number of occupants will decrease from next year.” It can act as a.”

Whether or not the global economy recovers after Corona 19 and changes in liquidity in the market are considered variables to be noted in the real estate market next year.

Young-jin Ham, head of Jikbang Big Data Lab, said, “The base interest rate was lowered twice this year, and low interest rates, abundant liquidity, and rising jeonse prices acted as downward rigidity to support the trading price. The absence of alternative investment destinations continues.”

Shin Jeong-seop, vice president of Shinhan Bank’s Real Estate Investment Advisory Center, said, “It seems that the corona-related risks will be mitigated next year, but it will take time for the real economy to recover,” he said. “In one year, the base rate was cut by 75bp. It is difficult to finish the liquidity market enough to change preferences,” he predicted.

However, it is analyzed that the rise like this year will be limited due to the economic slowdown due to the prolonged Corona 19 and the increase in multi-homed sales due to the burden of ownership tax.

The Korea Institute of Construction Policy and the Korea Institute of Construction Policy estimates that next year’s housing sales price will increase by 2% and the Woori Financial Management Research Institute by 2.71%. This is lower than this year’s increase rate (7.44%).

Professor Shim Gyo-eon of Konkuk University said, “Basically, consumer sentiment changes rapidly depending on supply and demand in the real estate market.”

KB Kookmin Bank’s senior expert real estate expert Park Won-gap also said, “The real estate market was’bad’ in 2020, but the rise is expected to decrease in 2021,” he said. “The method of pursuing purchases in short-term soaring areas can be dangerous.”