▲ A bird’s-eye view of Hanam Gyosan district, the 3rd new city. Photo = Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport
[한국금융신문 장호성 기자] The rise in house prices and the chaos in the cheonsei market, which rose sharply last year, are expected to continue this year as well.
As a result of the KB Real Estate survey, the increase in house prices in 2020 last year was 8.35%, the highest level in 14 years. The result of the government-affiliated Korea Real Estate Agency survey is also different, but it is 5.5%, the highest level since 2011.
The intention to block speculative demand was good, but the failure of the real estate policy, which only suppressed demand without sufficient supply, is pointed out as a key cause.
Some point out that the lease law, which took effect with the intention of protecting tenants, in turn aggravated the chaos in the jeonse market and encouraged the’panic buying’ of homeless people.
◇ Is there a limited increase in trading prices? Jeonse market unrest is ongoing
The Korea Institute of Construction Policy and Construction (Keon Jeong-yeon) predicted that the nationwide home sales price would increase by 2% this year. Although the upward trend will continue, the momentum has softened rather than last year’s surge.
It is analyzed that the price increase will be limited as the price of the house has already risen significantly last year, and this year, the demand for housing purchases has decreased and the price increase power weakened due to the government’s supply plan.
However, with the release of 50 trillion won of land compensation, including the 3rd new city, there is a forecast that funds will flow back into the real estate market until next year and the next year.
As the Corona 19 pandemic prolongs, there are many concerns that low interest rates will inevitably continue for the time being, and such liquidity will intact to real estate.
▲ Map of the 3rd new city. Photo = Homepage of the 3rd new city
Image enlarged view
Contrary to the trading market outlook, the outlook for the cheonsei market is also uncertain this year. Due to the lease law, conflicts between landlords and tenants emerged on the surface, and the phenomenon of lockdown in jeonse properties intensified, and the jeonse market was greatly unstable.
In particular, from June of this year, the’Jeon-Month Report System’ is applied in which the lease contractor reports the lease deposit and contract information to the government office where the rental contract is located within 30 days when contracting for a house lease such as jeon or monthly rent transactions. The tenant’s power becomes stronger.
It is pointed out that further confusion will be inevitable if the rent to cheonsei report system is even implemented in a situation where the jeonse market is intensified with the previous lease 2 law alone.
The rate of change in monthly jeonse prices rose 0.1~0.4% until June, before the lease law was enforced, but rose to 0.51% in July after the lease law was enforced. In November, it recorded 1.02%, the highest since October 2011 (1.10%).
An expert in real estate said, “The government is overly believed in the goodwill of the market in making real estate laws.” It’s like that,” he said.
However, with the improvement of the three lease laws, Chang-Hum Byunclose
Chang-Hum ByunCollect articles The minister has expressed his will to push the policy.
Minister Byeon said in a response to a personnel hearing submitted to the National Assembly last year, “The 3rd Lease Act is necessary to guarantee the right to live for tenants.” “If I take office as the Minister of Land, I will make up for the problems in implementation and settle the system early.” .
The lack of occupancy is also expected to fuel market uncertainty. According to the Real Estate 114 survey, the number of apartment occupants nationwide this year was 2,65594 households, a decrease of 26.5% (9,5726 households) from last year.
Park Won-gap, a senior real estate expert at KB Kookmin Bank, said, “There is a word to ask the jeonse market about the price of the house next year.” “If the jeonse price is not stable, the rise in the house price is difficult to calm down.”
Senior Expert Park predicted, “If demand for avoidance of cheonsei breakdown turns to the purchase of mid- to low-priced apartments, there is a high possibility that the trading market, which had been reduced sharply due to the regulatory effect, will resurrect and a market with an advantage in selling will be formed and the house price will rise again.”
◇ Despite the government’s strong will to’expand supply’, it could not be expected… Severe supply cliff expected this year
In 2020, despite the government’s firm commitment to’expand supply’, the housing market only supplied 282,214 households, which accounted for only 90% of the original target of 314,000 households.
‘Housing construction permit performance’, a leading indicator of housing supply, is also on the decline. According to e-Nara statistics, the number of housing permits has continuously declined from 765,000 units in 2015 to 726,000 units in 2016, 653,000 units in 2017, 554,000 units in 2018, and 488,000 units in 2019. .
Last year, the number was 32,6237 until October, which was also a decrease from the same period of the previous year, 35,3972.
To make matters worse, the shortage of housing supply in the metropolitan area, where the population is gathering, is getting worse.
According to the National Territorial Research Institute’s National Territorial Issue Report, “Medium and Long-Term Housing Supply Prospects and Implications,” the housing completion performance is expected to continue to decline until 2022, taking into account the difference in supply time (2 to 3 years) of housing permit performance.
Housing completion performance has gradually increased since 2011 after the global financial crisis, but due to the decline in housing permit performance, 2018 has peaked and turned into a decreasing trend.
As a result of the Korea Institute of Land, Infrastructure and Transport’s housing supply forecast, it is expected that between 2023 and 2027, an annual average of 287,000 units will be supplied in the metropolitan area, and an annual average of 820,000 units in Seoul will be supplied.
This uncertainty in the supply of housing in the metropolitan area is expected to be resolved only after 2023, when the supply of housing in public housing areas in the metropolitan area such as the 3rd new city is completed.
Therefore, the Korea Institute of Land, Infrastructure and Transport pointed out that “it is very important that the housing supply plan is carried out without a hitch.” It is suggested that there is a need to provide quality housing through continuous public housing security.”
As a result of the survey on the real estate platform, the estimated quantity for sale in 2021 is about 233,000 households, but some construction companies have not yet set a sale schedule, so the expected supply of apartments in 2021 is expected to be further expanded.
Large complexes with more than 2,000 households sold in 2021 were mainly redeveloped and rebuilt. On July 29, 2020, the upper limit on the sale price of private residential land will be applied, and most of the apartments in large complexes, which did not reach an agreement on the sale price between HUG and members, have been postponed to 2021.
After the full-scale pre-sale price limit system was implemented, there were many business sites that could not set a schedule, but the pre-sale market is expected to continue to gain popularity as pre-sale prices come out cheaper than the market price.
However, caution is required as there are changes in the pre-sale market such as changes in the subscription system and advance subscription.
In particular, in January, the requirements for special supplies for newlyweds and the first of their lives are eased. The average monthly income is changed from 100% (double-income to 120%) to 130% (double-income) to less than 130% (double-income).
The income standard for special supply for the first time in life is also reduced to 130% or less for public housing and 160% or less for private housing. In addition, from the complex applying for the approval of recruitment after February 19th, the residence duty period of the limited sale price limit in the metropolitan area is applied.
In the case of public housing, less than 80% of the market price (selling price in the neighborhood) is 5 years, 80% to 100% of the market price is 3 years, and for private houses less than 80% is 3 years, and 80 to 100% of the market price is 2 years. This happens.
Currently, there is a mandatory period of 3 to 5 years for only public housing and public housing, which has been extended to private housing and public housing.
◇ Will the government’treasure card’ be a signal to expand supply and pre-subscribe to the 3rd new city?
Of the 59,539 units scheduled to be sold in the second half of this year, 24,400 units are pre-subscription apartments for the third new city. In the second half of 2021, pre-subscription is expected to proceed in earnest.
The pre-subscription for the 3rd new city is the government’s trump card to overturn public opinion on the’lack of housing supply’. In fact, there are many eyes that see it as one of the hottest potatoes in the pre-sale market this year.
Starting with Gyeyang in Incheon in July-August, pre-subscriptions are scheduled for Namyangju Wangsuk, Goyang Changneung, Bucheon Daejang, and Gwacheon district.
Compared to neighboring apartments, the amount of supply is cheaper, and since a significant portion of the total amount is supplied by special supply, it is expected that opportunities for homeless people in the metropolitan area will expand.
The government is operating a’subscription notification service’ through the website of the 3rd new city. ‘Subscription Notification Service’ is a service that informs the applicant of the application schedule of the district by text 3 to 4 months in advance when the contact information and the district of interest are registered.
Opinions such as the desired area entered when applying for the subscription reminder and the reason for preference of the district of interest are also reflected in the district plan.
All public apartments that are subscribed in advance in the 3rd new town are subject to the sale price ceiling system.
As the average subscription competition rate of apartments that applied the pre-sale price ceiling system among pre-sale apartments in the metropolitan area in 2020 was high, the competition rate for pre-subscription in the 3rd new town is expected to be high.
However, pre-subscription winners must maintain the housing-free requirement until the time of this subscription, or cannot apply for pre-subscription for other pre-sale housing.Therefore, they must carefully check the pre-subscription conditions and restrictions upon winning before applying.
Reporter Jang Ho-sung [email protected]