[2021 뉴노멀] One of the three global electric vehicles’K battery’… Run again this year

▲ LG Chem electric vehicle battery. ⒸLG Chemical

LG Energy Solutions achieved the first place in annual cumulative battery usage for the first time in March last year, and remained the No. 1 in the global market until August. However, CATL reversed from September and held first place until November.

CATL is a company that has been ranked first in the electric vehicle battery sector for three consecutive years since 2017 with full support from the Chinese government. The battery usage gap between the two companies widened from 0.3GWh in September last year to 1.8GWh in November.

CATL, which began supplying batteries for Tesla Model 3 sold in China in the second half of last year, is expanding orders as the Chinese government extended its EV subsidy support policy for two more years.

An industry insider said, “CATL occupies about 50% of the market share in the Chinese electric vehicle battery market, and it is expected to continue to increase its share in the Chinese market, which is a’sloping playground’ with a differentiated subsidy policy.”

Japan’s Panasonic ranked 3rd with a cumulative 22.3GWh (19.2%) from January to November last year, while Samsung SDI and SK Innovation ranked 4th and 5th with 6.8GWh (5.8%) and 6.5GWh (5.5%), respectively. Occupied.

The cumulative market share of all three’K Battery’ companies was 33.9%, which is twice as high as 16.6% in 2019. It means that more than three of the top 10 global electric vehicles are equipped with batteries from domestic battery manufacturers.

In the new year, the rechargeable battery industry is expected to emerge in the full-fledged electric vehicle era.

In a recently published report, Hana Financial Research Institute analyzed that the market share of domestic companies in the secondary battery manufacturing industry is increasing due to targeting overseas markets such as Europe, supplying to new automobile companies, and increasing production capacity.

Accordingly, the sales of domestic secondary battery makers are expected to increase by more than 30% this year, thanks to economies of scale from the expansion of electric vehicle batteries and a good global market position.

The global rechargeable battery market is one of the industries predicted to have the most rapid growth thanks to the expansion of the spread of electric vehicles. In particular, this year’s environmental regulations are expected to intensify and competition for electric vehicles by each manufacturer is expected to intensify.

Looking at the trends of global automakers, it can be seen that competition for electric vehicles is intensifying, and the growth of the electric vehicle battery industry is bound to increase.

Tesla, a leader in the electric vehicle market, is expanding its supply worldwide. Three German automakers, including Mercedes-Benz, BMW, and Audi, are also planning to produce electric vehicles in earnest from this year, and it is reported that the proportion of electric vehicles will further increase depending on the market situation.

Hyundai Motor Company is also planning to release the first car Ioniq 5 based on the electric vehicle-based platform E-GMP. Kia Motors will also use this platform to release an electric vehicle CV (project name) this year.

▲ Current status of battery production bases for electric vehicles by three battery companies. Data = each company. ⒸKorea Enterprise Evaluation

LG Energy Solutions is in the midst of preparations for the next-generation battery mass production system. It is aiming for mass production in the second half of the year.

This year, it plans to supply a high-efficiency high-nickel battery that raised the proportion of nickel to 90% to Tesla. It is reported that the product will be installed in Tesla’s next-generation model’Y’.

This NCMA (nickel, cobalt, manganese, aluminum) battery, which has increased nickel content and lowered the proportion of cobalt, is more competitive than existing products in terms of efficiency and cost. It is also possible to secure a driving distance of 600㎞ or more when the battery is installed.

SK Innovation continues to invest aggressively. Recently, it is building a’financial story’ while confirming capital input for additional US investment. SK Innovation is promoting the construction of an additional plant 2 in addition to the battery plant 1 under construction in Georgia, USA. 3 trillion won was invested in the construction of the US battery production line.

When the plant construction is completed in 2023, SK Innovation will have a production capacity of 21.5 GWh in the US alone. It is 80.5GWh level on a company-wide basis. SK Innovation is building production capacity with a target of 100GWh by 2025.

Samsung SDI also plans to expand its growth in the battery field, starting with the next-generation battery’Gen 5′. Samsung SDI will begin mass production of the Gen5 battery at the Goed plant in Hungary. This battery, which is applied with a high-nickel NCA cathode material, is characterized by a higher energy density and lower manufacturing cost than before.

Samsung SDI is expected to enjoy both top-line growth and profit improvement on the back of cost reduction effects from the launch of new batteries and sales expansion centered on European customers such as BMW.

Accordingly, the earnings outlook for the three companies is also bright. Since the second quarter of last year, LG Energy Solutions has been continuously increasing the trend of profit growth, and sales are expected to exceed 18 trillion won in 2021.

Samsung SDI also has high expectations for a turnaround. Already in the third quarter of last year, the electric vehicle battery division reached the break-even point, making it clear that the first surplus was achieved. SK Innovation is also expecting to achieve mid-3 trillion won in sales.

Kim Hyun-soo, a researcher at Hana Financial Investment, analyzed that “many of the battery companies that have been investing in cost have reached the break-even point on a quarterly basis from the second half of last year, and the margin increase rate will improve in earnest from this year.”

However, △the EU’s policy to reduce dependence on batteries in Asia, △internalization of batteries by finished car makers, △stability issues such as fire accidents, and △lawsuits between domestic companies remain a task to be overcome.

The EU Commission and each European government have formed the’Battery Alliance’, an industry promotion policy, with a sense of crisis that their dependence on batteries made in Korea and China is high, and have fostered the battery production chain.

Swedish startup North Volt, funded by Volkswagen and BMW, plans to mass-produce batteries with low greenhouse gas emissions using hydroelectric power in Sweden starting this year, and is setting up a joint plant with Volkswagen in Salzgitter in northern Germany.

PSA, a French automobile giant, also decided to establish a joint venture with Saft, a subsidiary of oil company Total and a battery manufacturer, to build a plant with a scale of 24 GWh each in France and Germany. The projects of Northbolt and PSA are supported by the European Commission and the German and French governments.

Automakers are also becoming competitors by entering the battery business. Tesla, who mentioned the internalization of batteries several times, set the goal of securing production capacity of 10GWh in 2022 and 3TWh in 2030 at last year’s’Battery Day’.

GM set up a joint venture for electric vehicle batteries with LG Chem, and Volkswagen is also promoting its own battery production by establishing a joint plant with a Swedish battery company.

Recently, General Motors (GM), Ford, and Apple are pushing forward related projects with the goal of producing self-driving passenger cars by 2024. It is expected to apply self-developed battery technology to this vehicle.

An industry official said, “With the expansion of the spread of electric vehicles in each country this year, the demand for electric vehicle batteries will continue to grow steadily.” I plan to do it.”