[2021전망] Will Corona 19 be caught… Early termination agent even if vaccination from the first quarter

Everything has changed 180 degrees since January 20 this year, when the first Korean coronavirus infection (Corona 19) confirmed.

Looking at the situation of Corona 19 in Korea, confirmed cases were intermittently initially centered on immigrants from China, but it started in earnest with group infections in Daegu and Gyeongbuk, and then spread to all over the country through the metropolitan area. Continues.

It is not an exaggeration to say that this year literally remains a’lost year’, causing enormous damage to the economy and society as a whole.

Due to the unprecedented infectious disease, it has become a daily routine for all citizens to wear masks wherever they go, both indoors and outdoors, and elementary, middle, and high school students take online classes at home as much as going to school.

In addition, overseas travel was virtually stopped, and it was even banned from gathering more than five people at restaurants nationwide.

Even earlier this year, few people predicted that the fight against Corona 19 would be such a long’long-term battle’. The opinion that the Corona 19 virus is genetically similar to the SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) virus that was prevalent in China from 2002 to 2003, and that it will disappear naturally when hot and humid summer comes.

However, regardless of the season, this’unknown virus’ has infiltrated all of our daily lives for almost a year, and is now spreading faster.

Despite the government’s continued reinforcement of’social distancing’, the spread does not stop, and it will take at least half a year to form collective immunity through vaccines that will be introduced sequentially from the first quarter of next year. Do.

◇ Three major trends this year… Continued’long-term war’ in the spread of daily infections

The domestic Corona 19 epidemic situation can be roughly classified in three stages. It is two pandemic and one fashion.

From February to March, when a large number of confirmed cases in Daegu and Gyeongbuk were poured out, it is the period of the’first pandemic’.

On February 18, after the first confirmed cases related to the Shincheonji Church of Jesus Campus (Shincheonji) Daegu Church were discovered, the number of new confirmed patients per day increased to the level of hundreds, and the cumulative number in this area increased to about 8,000 in one month.

August to September, when the number of confirmed cases increased in the metropolitan area, belongs to the’second epidemic’ period.

With the Sarangjeil Church in Seongbuk-gu, Seoul and the Liberation Day downtown rally, confirmed cases began appearing one after another and spread across the country. In addition, more than 20% of patients with’unknown infection route’ who do not know when and where they were infected, and the number of confirmed patients aged 60 years or older, who are particularly vulnerable to infection, increased, followed by critically ill patients and deaths.

In response to the first and second epidemic, the quarantine authorities succeeded in breaking the spread of Corona 19 through the operation of multi-use facilities and’social distancing’, which limits contact and gathering between people.

In addition, the crisis of collapse of the medical system was prevented by establishing a’life treatment center’ for the treatment of rapidly increasing asymptomatic and mild patients by cutting off additional transmission links by quickly finding and quarantining confirmed patients through aggressive diagnostic tests.

These measures have also garnered global attention, gaining the nickname’K-Defense Prevention’.

◇ ‘3rd pandemic’ in progress… Breaking the most daily record

After that, Corona 19 seemed to show a brief lull, but from mid-November it showed a sharp increase again.

Until the beginning of November, the number of new confirmed patients a day remained around 100, but after exceeding the 200 mark on the 14th of the same month (205), it increased steeply in a stepwise fashion and rose to 500 on the 26th (581).

In particular, this month’s spread was even more intense, surpassing the 1,000 mark for the first time since the domestic Corona 19 epidemic on the 13th (1,30 people), and on the 25th of Christmas, it broke the record with 1,241 people.

In terms of scale, it has already exceeded the first pandemic (peak on February 29, 909 people) and the second epidemic (August 27, 441 people).

During the previous two outbreaks, patients were poured into a specific group, but this time, group infections are occurring simultaneously and repeatedly through daily spaces such as family and acquaintance meetings, school, and work. From the standpoint of the quarantine authorities, the’front line’ to be dealt with is much wider.

The government raised the distance between the metropolitan area and the non-metropolitan area to 2.5 stages and 2 stages, respectively, and designated the’special quarantine period during the year-end and New Year holidays’ (12.24 to 2021.1.3), banning meetings of 5 or more restaurants nationwide, winter sports facilities, and sunrise. High-intensity measures are being taken, such as closure of attractions, but it is unknown whether the spreading trend will be reduced.

Some experts predict that there may be more than 2,000 confirmed cases a day.

◇ From the first quarter of next year, it takes time for the introduction of vaccines and’collective immunity’… “It is important to reduce the number of confirmed cases through proper quarantine”

In this situation, as the news of the introduction of the Corona 19 vaccine is delivered, there is also expectation that the Corona 19 will end next year.

The government has signed contracts with three pharmaceutical companies, including AstraZeneca, Johnson & Johnson-Jansen, and Pfizer, which are developing vaccines. The AstraZeneca vaccine will be introduced in the first quarter of next year, the Janssen product in the second quarter, and the Pfizer vaccine in the third quarter. The total number of vaccines supplied to Korea through the three pharmaceutical companies is 26 million.

The government is also planning to secure an additional 10 million people each through the’COVAX facility’, an international project for joint purchase and distribution of Vaccines with Modena.

It plans to purchase a total of 46 million vaccines.

In the case of the Korean Corona 19 vaccine, all four privately developed vaccines have been approved for clinical trials, but it will take time to develop them.

The government is currently establishing a specific vaccination plan according to the vaccine introduction schedule.

Yang Dong-gyo, Director of the Medical Safety Prevention Bureau of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said at the previous briefing, “We are establishing an inoculation plan in consideration of the timing of supply and the characteristics and effectiveness of vaccines. Is the goal.”

Even if vaccination begins, the Corona 19 epidemic does not end immediately. The government and experts agree that it takes more than half a year for’collective immunity’ to develop after many vaccinations. Until then, the number of confirmed cases must be reduced through thorough quarantine.

“It will take half a year for the formation of group immunity and 9-10 months for the formation of group immunity,” said Son Young-rae, head of the strategic planning team of the Central Accident Control Headquarters. It is important to prevent and stabilize the situation.”

Kim Moran, a professor at the National Cancer Center, said in a call with Yonhap News, “The US and UK have begun vaccination, but the number of patients is not immediately decreasing.”

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