[2021년 부동산전망]② “5~10% increase in full set value” after the leasing law continues

[편집자 주] Despite the government’s high-strength real estate market regulation, house prices in 2020 surged to the highest rate ever. In 2021, low interest rates are continuing, and it is expected to act as an anxiety factor, such as a decrease in the number of occupants and an increase in the number of one or two people. The aftermath of the lease law is also acting as a catalyst for an increase in jeonse prices. Through 30 real estate experts, we forecast the real estate market in 2021 and the policy impact of the new Minister of Land, Infrastructure and Transport Byun Chang-heum.

[서울=뉴스핌] Reporter Lee Dong-hoon = The jeonse crisis caused by the shortage of jeonse property is expected to continue in the new year. The aftermath of the Leasing Act continues, and the implementation of the monthly rent limit system for leases, and the decrease in occupancy quantities are likely to affect market uncertainty.

The government’s plan to meet the jeonse crisis by supplying 110,000 households for public rental housing over two years will begin in earnest from 2021. However, there are many observations that one or two households are the main targets, and even in a residential environment, it is less than an apartment and will not have a significant impact on solving the jeonse crisis. As the charter problem continues, the demand for mid- to low-priced apartments in the outskirts of Seoul, Gyeonggi-do, and Incheon is expected to increase further.

◆ 97% of experts and 5% or more of national total price increase

As a result of a survey of 30 real estate experts from academia, research institutes, and industry by NewsPim, 29 experts predicted that the nationwide rental price would increase in 2021. One expert predicted consolidation, but there was no opinion that it would decline.

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As for the rate of increase in the total price, 22 experts were the most likely to jump around 5%. Next, the opinion that scored more than 10% was followed by 7 people. There was only one opinion.

The rate of increase in the total price expected by experts is similar to that of 2020, the largest increase in nine years. According to the Korea Real Estate Agency, the rate of increase in national jeonse prices in 2020 (as of December 14th) is 6.9%. In the metropolitan area, Incheon rose the most with 9.42%, followed by Gyeonggi-do 8.9% and Seoul 4.19%.

The main reason for the continued unstable jeonse price was the side effects of the lease law enforcement. In fact, as worldwide drugs are guaranteed for 4 years (2+2), the landlords are calling up the market price significantly. As the demand for jeonse continued to decline in a situation where the volume of goods declined, the quoted price skyrocketed.

When asked if the lease law had an effect on the cheonsei market out of 30 experts, 19 answered’very yes’. Eleven people answered’yes’, an opinion that had some influence. No one commented that there was no impact.

There were many reactions that the market would be more unstable if the rent to cheonsei system, one of the three lease laws, was implemented in June. Compared to the ceiling on rent for cheonsei and the right to apply for contract renewal, the impact on the market is small, but there is room for a higher rate of converting cheonsei into monthly rent or reverse tax by landlords, whose tax burden is increasing.

17 out of 30 people (57%) answered that the rent to cheonsei system will affect the cheonsei market. There were 10 experts who answered that there was no impact, and 3 people thought that it would affect them slightly. It is believed that 67% of experts believe that the cheonsei market will become more unsettled by reporting the rent to cheonsei.

Lee Sang-woo, CEO of Invade Investment Advisory, said, “There is a severe supply-demand imbalance in the jeonse market and there is no immediate solution, so the jeonse price is expected to rise by more than 10%.” There is room for further anxiety,” he said.

Lee Chang-moo, a professor at Hanyang University’s Department of Urban Engineering, said, “It will be difficult to prevent the rise in jeonse prices due to the decrease in the amount of occupancy and the impact of the lease law, etc.” .

◆ Influence in the full-fledged supply of 114,000 households for public leases is insignificant… “Tenants to the outskirts”

Given that it is difficult to increase the supply of jeonse in a short period of time, the opinion that the anxiety sentiment cannot be resolved quickly is dominant.

There were many views that the government’s plan to supply 114,000 public rental housing units in the metropolitan area by 2022 will not have a significant effect on resolving the cheonsei crisis.

21 out of 30 experts expected the expansion of public rental housing to have little effect on the cheonsei crisis. There was one response that it would not work at all. Eight experts thought it would have a positive effect on resolving the jeonse crisis.

Public rental housing promoted by the government is to increase the quantity by utilizing the vacancy of public institutions and hotel/office remodeling. Due to the nature of public lease, most of the scales that one or two people can live in, and hotel remodeling is an opinion that it is unclear whether or not it will attract jeonse consumers due to the relatively poor living environment.

As a result, there have been many observations that the demand for mid- to low-priced apartment purchases will continue to emerge without being able to overcome the jeonse crisis. Recently, due to the burden of jeonse, demand has been rushing to mid-priced apartments in the outskirts of Seoul, Gyeonggi-do, and Incheon. As demand slumped, house prices also rose.

28 out of 30 predicted that the phenomenon of tenants moving in search of mid- and low-priced properties in the new year will increase from the previous year. Two predicted similar levels, and no expert predicted a decline.

“The number of apartment occupants is expected to decrease by 16% compared to the previous year, and the impact of the 3rd Lease Act is significant, so it is difficult to solve the problem of cheonsei in a short period.” “The demand for mid- to low-priced apartments will inevitably increase.”

◇ List of 30 survey participants (in alphabetical order)

▲ Sang-cheol Ko, Inha University Graduate School of Policy Visiting Professor ▲ Kang-Soo Kwon, Director of Korea Startup Real Estate Information Institute ▲ Professor Kwon Dae-jung, Professor of Real Estate Department at Myongji University ▲ Kwon Il Real Estate Information Research Team Leader ▲ Kim Kwang-seok Real Media Representative ▲ Kim Deok-rye Research Fellow, Ssangyong E&C Research Fellow ▲ Kim Dong-wook Senior Vice President of Marketing at Ssangyong E&C ▲ Kim Byung-ki Real House Sales Evaluation Team Leader ▲Kim In-man Kim In-man Real Estate Economic Research Institute ▲Kim Tae-seop Director of Housing Industry Research Institute ▲Kim Hak-Ryeol, Real Estate Research Institute Director ▲Park Won-Kap, KB Kookmin Bank Real Estate Chief Expert Committee ▲Seo Jin-hyung, President of Korean Real Estate Association (Professor, Kyungin Women’s University) ▲Seon Jong-pil, Sangga News Raida Representative ▲Song Woong-seop Head of Real Estate Brokers Association Seoul Northern Branch ▲Shim Gyo-Eon Professor of Real Estate Department at Konkuk University ▲Ahn Myeong-sook, Head of Woori Bank Real Estate Investment Support Center ▲Yang Ji-young, R&C Research Center Manager ▲Woo Byeong-tak, Shinhan Bank Real Estate Investment Advisory Center Team Leader ▲Yoon Ji-Hae Real Estate 114 Senior Researcher ▲Lee Dong-Hyun Hana Bank Real Estate Advisory Center Director Sang-Woo Lee, Invade Investment Advisor ▲ Eun-Hyung Lee Senior Researcher, Korea Institute for Construction Policy ▲ Chang-Moo Lee Professor of Urban Engineering, Hanyang University ▲ Hosang Lee, Head of Korea Housing Construction Association ▲ Byeong-cheol Lim Real Estate 114 Senior Researcher ▲ Geun-seok Jang Ji-seok Auction Team Leader ▲ Geun-ho Cho Samsung C&T Managing Director ▲Ham Young-jin Jikbang Big Data Lab Director ▲Hong Chun-wook Professor, Sejong Cyber ​​University

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