[2020년 산업계 결산 ⑥조선·해운] In the first half,’Amul’ in the second half,’Rebound’… “I’ve raised my expectations for next year”: Bridge Economy, a partner in the age of 100

HMM’s 24,000 TEU ultra-large container ship’HMM Algeciras’ built by Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering. (Photo courtesy = HMM)

The shipbuilding and shipping industries this year were the same in that they received a direct hit from Corona 19, but the results were quite different. Although the shipbuilding industry has suffered from a shortage of work due to the crisis of order-taking since 2016, the shipping industry has enjoyed an unprecedented boom due to a surge in freight rates.

Initially, the shipbuilding industry expected the demand for eco-friendly new constructions to increase thanks to the favorable effects of the International Maritime Organization (IMO) strengthening environmental regulations this year. . As orders for large-sized ships such as LNG carriers and container ships of 10,000 TEU or higher have declined significantly, domestic shipbuilders, which have been receiving orders mainly for high-value-added ships, have suffered a more pronounced decline in earnings. In particular, in June of this year, Qatar State Petroleum Corp. and domestic shipbuilding’Big 3′(Korea Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering, Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering, Samsung Heavy Industries) signed a dock reservation contract related to the construction of more than 100 LNG carriers, but it did not lead to short-term orders.

The domestic shipbuilding industry surpassed China in 2018 and 2019, ranking first in global orders, but this year, it has remained in second place after falling behind China. According to Clarkson Research, a shipbuilding and shipping analysis agency in the UK, the cumulative global ship orders from January to November this year was only 14.47 million CGT. This is a 43% decrease compared to the same period last year, and a 55% decrease compared to 2018. Among them, Korean shipbuilders ordered only 5.25 million CGT (35%), about 11 percentage points behind China, which received 6.66 million CGT (46%) orders.

In the shipbuilding industry, orders and actual results occur at a lag due to the nature of the industry. This year’s order cliff could lead to a shortage of work within a year or two. What is encouraging is that global orders have recovered since summer. Particularly this month, news of large-scale orders, centered on the Joseon’Big 3′, continued. Until the summer vacation, these shipbuilders achieved annual order targets of 6-20%, but after that, large contracts including LNG carriers continued, and the rate of achievement soared to 65-90% based on recent standards. Expectations for large orders for additional LNG carriers from overseas, including Qatar, are high.

In addition, this year, the sale of medium-sized shipbuilders, which has remained a long-standing homework, has been on the rise. Following the sale of last year, Seongdong Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering, which completed the procedure this year, has sold for sale mid-sized shipbuilders managed by state-owned banks such as Daeseon Shipbuilding, Hanjin Heavy Industries, and STX Offshore & Shipbuilding. Each of them selects a preferred negotiator and is preparing to sign the main contract.

On the other hand, the shipping industry had a lockdown shock from each country in the early stages of Corona 19, but as the shock subsided after the summer, the freight rate increased due to the increase in cargo volume. Global container carriers predicted the impact of Corona 19 and adjusted the fleet, but rather, the phenomenon that supply could not keep up with demand occurred as the volume of cargo increased. The Shanghai Container Freight Index (SCFI), a representative index indicating the level of freight rates for container ships, exceeded 2,000 points for the first time in history in the second half of the year, and each time the highest figures were updated. With this fare effect, nationalized ocean carriers such as HMM and SM Merchant Marine are expected to achieve record-breaking performance this year. In particular, as freight rates continue to rise, we are optimistic that earnings will continue to improve until next year.

Reporter Jeon Hye-in [email protected]