Among the so-called’Big 3′, the next presidential candidate, including Gyeonggi Governor Lee Jae-myung, former Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-yeol, and Democratic Party representative Lee Nak-yeon, experts predicted the possibility of Lee’s election as the highest. Newsis·Yonhap News·News 1
Experts in opinion polls and political consulting analyzed that Gyeonggi Governor Lee Jae-myeong is most likely to be elected in the presidential election held in March next year. This is the result of a prediction of the possibility of winning the so-called’Big 3’candidates (Jaimyeong Lee, Nakyeon Lee, Seokyeol Yoon) conducted by the JoongAng Ilbo targeting 10 experts in politics and election analysis a year before the presidential election (March 9, 2022).
[대선 D-1년] Analysis of the possibility of winning the’Big 3’and the dark horse
Nine out of 10 experts answered that the Governor’s chances of being elected are the highest at this time. The other one predicted the possibility of winning the election of Governor Lee and former prosecutor general Yoon Seok-yeol as’joint number one’. There was no expert in this survey who saw the highest likelihood of the election of the Democratic Party’s representative with Lee Nak-yeon.
As the Governor’s rival, there were more experts, including former President Yun. Of the nine people who predicted the Governor as’one single’, four responded in the order of’Jae-myeong Lee> Seok-yeol Yoon> Nak-yeon Lee, and three were’Jae-myeong Lee> Nak-yeon Lee> Seok-yeol Yoon. The other two responded with’Jae-myeong Lee> Seok-yeol Yoon = Nak-yeon Lee.
Graphic = Reporter Kim Kyung-jin [email protected]
Among the so-called’sleep dragons’, Prime Minister Jeong Sye-gyun was investigated as the most influential competitor. “In the 2022 presidential election, it was a response to a request for a maximum of four people (dark horses) who could be elected in addition to the’Big 3′.” Prime Minister Jung said that 8 out of 10 experts were’possibly elected’. Former lawmaker Yoo Seung-min and Roh Moo-hyun-dan, chairman of the People’s Power, five people each named’dark horses’, followed by Gyeongnam Governor Kim Gyeong-soo and Jeju Governor Won Hee-ryong (recommended by four each).
The investigation was conducted by sending a written questionnaire from the afternoon of the 4th to the morning of the 7th from the afternoon of the 4th when former President Yun announced his intention to resign. In December 2006, the JoongAng Ilbo conducted a survey on the possibility of winning the’Big 3’for 10 experts in the same manner a year before the 17th presidential election, the possibility of the election of former President Lee Myung-bak was ahead of former Presidents Park Geun-hye and former Prime Minister Ko Gun-hye. Appeared, and this was consistent with the actual presidential election results.
◇ Experts who participated in the survey
The inflection point for Lee Jae-myung’s approval rating is April-May
As of the present time, the possibility of Lee Governor’s election was the highest, but experts pointed out that “there is still a lot of liquidity.” This is because the year before the presidential election is not a short period, and important political schedules such as the re-and-by-election (April) and the Democratic National Convention (May) are ahead.
Regarding Gyeonggi Governor Lee Jae-myeong, which is the most unrivaled approval rating among passport candidates this year, experts predicted that “the approval rating may have an inflection point after the Seoul Mayor’s by-election in April.” The photo shows Governor Lee greeting with the attending lawmakers at the Gyeonggi-do National Assembly Policy Council held at the Conrad Hotel in Yeongdeungpo-gu, Seoul on the 3rd. Reporter Oh Jong-taek
In particular, 6 out of 10 experts advised to pay attention immediately after the re-election on April 7. “If the ruling party wins the by-election of the mayor of Seoul, optimism in the passport spreads, and the push up of’Lee Jae-myung’s opponents’ may be in full swing.” (Sang-il Lee, Director of Casestat Consulting), “If you win the by-election, Governor Lee and CEO Lee will be accompanied by approval ratings. It is an analysis that it is rising, but the extent of the rise on the side of this representative will be greater”
Regardless of the results of the re-election, there was also an opinion that “between April and June, when the presidential candidate’s primary election is officially made, will be the biggest crisis and inflection point for this governor” (Cheol-ho Bae, Senior Expert Real Meter).
The reason is that there is a high possibility that intensive checks will begin on the governor before the contest begins in earnest. “In the process of the party’s presidential election, the profile of the pro-moon party’s judgment is revealed, and there is a high possibility that Lee Jae-myung will collide with the mainstream theory and insurrection” (Yoon Tae-gon, head of The Moa Political Analysis Office), “If Chairman Yoo Si-min appears or Governor Kim Gyeong-soo is found not guilty in the Supreme Court, There was also a prospect that Big Bang is coming in the passport composition” (Park Hae-sung, CEO of TV Ridge).
It is also noteworthy that the approval rating of former President Yoon, who has recently entered the presidential race in earnest, is also noteworthy. Jang Seong-cheol, director of the consensus and debate, said, “There is no clear competitor in the opposition, and the rise in the approval rating of former President Yun will continue due to corruption issues such as the LH incident.” In this case, “In this case, the Yanggang composition of Governor Lee and former President Yun will inevitably be strengthened. “No.”
The presidential election issue is economic and real estate Political reorganization is also a hot topic
The economic issue was most often cited as an issue that will lead the competition for the presidential election for one year. “Economy has always been a major issue in the presidential election, but the issue of increased national debt over the past two years and temporary increase in welfare for the future will be mixed, and it will become more prominent in the next presidential election” (Policom CEO Park Dong-won).
Among the economic issues, not a few cited real estate and basic income as core issues. “The real estate issue will stimulate the judgment sentiment of non-partisan voters” (Lee Jun-ho, CEO of STI), “Basic income is an issue that changes the basis of the economic and welfare system, so it will shake the presidential election itself” Came out.
Economic issues, including real estate issues, are considered to be key issues that will lead the competition for the presidential election next year. On the 4th, seedlings are planted at the site in Gwarim-dong, Siheung-si, Gyeonggi-do, a land suspected of buying LH employees. Reporter Oh Jong-taek
Many opinions pointed out political reform, including opposition, as the biggest issue of the presidential election. Lee Sang-il, director of KStat Consulting, said, “If you win as Candidate Se-hoon Oh, we will hold the presidential election centering on the power of the people, but if Ahn Chul-soo becomes the representative of the National Assembly Party or the ruling party wins the Seoul mayoral election, it will lead to reorganization of the opposition. “In this case, the development process itself is the main variable of the presidential election,” he said.
The role of former President Yun in the process of political reform is also noteworthy. President Choi Jin-in, president of the Leadership Research Institute, said, “The sentiment of preferring an integrated and centered leader is expanding.” “2.5 Zone Big Tent,” in which centers from the current government, such as former Deputy Prime Minister Kim Dong-yeon, combine with the existing politics, led by former President Yoon and former Deputy Prime Minister Kim Dong-yeon. It is also possible.” CEO Park Dong-won (Polycom) said, “With the addition of former President Yoon, there is a possibility that the’Anti-Moon Solidarity’ opposition reorganization theory rather than the existing progressive and conservative composition has emerged.”
Reporters Oh Hyun-seok and Nam Soo-hyun [email protected]
