Photo = Hankyung DB
Last year, the fertility rate fell to a record low of 0.84. Korea has the only birth rate in the world that started in 2018, but last year it broke to 0.9. The’population dead cross’ has also begun, with more deaths than births.
At this rate, it is observed that the time of the total population decline (2029) will be faster than originally expected. There is also a growing concern that the demographic structure will be aging, the economic dynamics will decline, and it will fall into a swamp of low growth.
Korea’s fertility rate, the world’s’overwhelming last’
According to the “2020 birth and death statistics” released by the National Statistical Office on the 24th, the total fertility rate last year was 0.84, down 0.08 from the previous year (0.92), the lowest level since statistics began in 1970. The total fertility rate is the average number of births a woman is expected to have in her lifetime.
‘A country that never gives birth to a child in a lifetime’ has already become a reality in 2018 (0.98 people). However, instead of improving here, it worsened and reached the 0.9 mark last year.
Korea’s low birth rate is unprecedented in the world. According to United Nations (UN) demographics, Korea is the only country with a total fertility rate below 1 last year among 198 countries. Puerto Rico, ranked 197th, also has 1.2. Korea’s fertility rate is less than half of the world average (2.4).
The number of births was a new record low. The number of babies born last year was 272,000, down 31,000 from the previous year (303,000). The number of births remained in the 400,000 range for 15 years from 2002 to 2016. However, after falling to 358,000 in 2017, it fell to 200,000 in just three years.
Last year, the death toll was 305,000. The number of deaths was 33,000 more than that of birth, resulting in a natural decline in the population, a so-called’dead cross’. It is also the first time ever. The natural decline of the population was predicted by the decrease in the number of residents registered last year.
Total population decline may be faster than 2029
The problem is that the rate at which the low birth rate is becoming more serious is faster than the forecast by the National Statistical Office. The National Statistical Office predicted the number of births last year at 292,000 in the’Future Population Estimation’ released in 2019. Actually, there were 20,000 fewer than this. This is because the annual birthrate decrease rate slowed to 11.9% in 2017 → 8.7% in 2018 → 7.4% in 2019, but then increased to 10.0% last year. Last year’s total fertility rate was also estimated by the National Statistical Office at 0.90, but in reality it was only 0.82.
This is why there are observations that the timing of the expected decline in the total population in 2029 will also accelerate. Of course, the total population must be considered in addition to the births and deaths in Korea, as well as foreigners. This is because the total population statistics includes foreigners staying longer than 3 months, unlike the resident registration population. Korea has more than 50,000 international net inflows every year. However, even if the international net inflow is maintained above a certain level, there are concerns that the total population will decrease from the mid-2020s as the rate of birthrate decline is too rapid.
This observation is also supported by a significant decrease in the number of marriages, which can be used to estimate the number of future births. The number of marriages last year was 214,000, down 10.7% from the previous year. The rate of decline (7.2%) has been greater than in 2019. It is interpreted as the effect of the increased number of delayed and canceled marriages due to the spread of the novel coronavirus infection (Corona 19).
“I can’t solve the low birth rate just by giving welfare”
There is also growing criticism that the economic and social risks resulting from the low birth rate and aging population will increase. The biggest problem is that as the workforce structure in industrial sites is aging, economic dynamism and productivity decrease. There are many analyzes that the fundamental cause of Japan’s long-term recession that began in the 1990s, the so-called’lost 20 years’, is the decline in economic vitality due to the aging population structure. James Liang, a world-renowned demographer and chairman of Trip.com, China’s largest online travel agency, said in his book’Population Revolution Leading Innovation’. “The key reason Japan fell into a long-term recession is aging.” As the number of startups decreased, it was impossible to introduce innovations such as Walkman and digital cameras in the past.”
The proportion of the population aged 25-49, the core working-age population with the most active economic activity, is expected to be 36.9% last year. It is similar to Japan in 1990 (36.3%). The National Statistical Office predicts that the population aged 25 to 49 will drop to 32.5% by 2030, but if the trend is now, the rate of decline is likely to be steeper. The timing of entry into an’ultra-aged society’, where the proportion of the 65-year-old population exceeds 20%, could be earlier than expected in 2025.
Korea still maintains its economic innovation at a high level due to the struggles of companies such as Samsung Electronics, LG, and Hyundai Motors, but there are concerns that innovation will inevitably decline if the aging workforce increases. In addition, when the total population decreases, side effects such as contraction in consumption and visibility of deflation will increase.
The government is not unaware of the risk of low birthrate and aging population. From 2006 to last year, a budget of 305 trillion won was allocated only to resolve the low birth rate and aging population. Nevertheless, it is pointed out that the fact that the situation worsens rather than improves is due to being buried only in short-term solutions focused on welfare enhancement. The child allowance, which was newly established in 2018, is representative. It is a project that gives 100,000 won per month to children under the age of 7, and there have been constant criticisms of “Will you give birth to a child by giving 100,000 won?”
Professor Cho Young-tae of the Graduate School of Health at Seoul National University said, “The low birth rate is due to problems such as the lack of quality jobs, the shortage of housing, and the concentration of the population and industry in the metropolitan area.” “Do” he emphasized.
Some point out that the expansion of immigration is also inevitable. It means that it is difficult to raise the fertility rate in a short period of time, so it is necessary to actively induce young manpower from overseas, such as Europe and the United States. However, a common point of experts is that it is necessary to lead the improvement of economic productivity by inducing immigration focusing on high-skilled talent rather than simple labor manpower.
Reporter Seo Min-joon [email protected]