[환율전망] USD weakening expected ‘1108~1114 won’

On the 23rd, foreign exchange experts predicted that the won-dollar exchange rate would fluctuate in the consolidation zone.

◇ Kim Yu-mi, Researcher at Kiwoom Securities = On this day, the NDF dollar-won exchange rate is expected to start rising by 1 won to 1112.66 won per month.

Last night, the New York Stock Market closed mixed tax due to the burden of rising government bond rates. A sense of wariness caused by rising interest rates is limiting the overall preference for risky assets. Germany’s February IFO Economic Expectation Index recorded 94.2, exceeding both the previous month (91.5) and the market forecast, raising expectations for an economic recovery. The news that the UK will gradually ease the blockade, starting with school in early March, supported the strength of the pound.

◇Sungji Jeon, Researcher of Samsung Futures = Despite the decline in the Nasdaq index, the dollar declined as European indicators continued to improve and Powell’s parliamentary report continued. The US 10-Year Treasury Bond yield rose 2.6bp to 1.370% after approaching 1.4% intraday.

The yuan environment has become somewhat more complicated. The yuan, which had been relatively strong at the beginning of the year, is experiencing weakness before and after the Lunar New Year holidays, and volatility is appearing. The recent rise in tensions between the US and China, increased volatility in the stock market amid concerns about Chinese austerity, and indications of China’s expansion of overseas investment are believed to be factors of yuan volatility. The spread of COVID-19 vaccines in the U.S. and the U.K. and expectations for normalization have been a factor that dilutes the relative strength of China.

Despite the weak US dollar overnight, concerns over risk appetite from rising US interest rates and a weak renminbi are expected to provide support for the dollar-won exchange rate. However, on the previous day, Hyundai Samho Heavy Industries delivered news of overseas ship orders worth KRW 298.8 billion, which could continue to pressure from the top. On this day, while Powell’s parliamentary report is scheduled, foreigners in the stock market and the yuan exchange rate are expected to fluctuate at the beginning of the 1110 won range.