[한은 미리보기]Anticipation of an unbeatable increase in house prices… Will the highs continue?

Gangbuk apartment viewed from Namsan. (Photo = Yonhap News)

[이데일리 원다연 기자] Next week, the Bank of Korea will release the consumer sentiment index this month. It is noteworthy whether the housing price forecast index, which showed a record high last month, will continue to rise.

On the 29th, the BOK will release statistics on the December Consumer Trends Survey. In last month’s survey, the consumer sentiment index (CCSI) was 97.9, showing an uptrend following the transfer.

If the consumer sentiment index is higher than 100 based on 100, it means that consumers’ sentiment is more optimistic than the long-term average (2003-2019), and if it is lower than the long-term average (2003-2019), they are pessimistic. However, last month’s statistics did not reflect the impact of the third re-proliferation of Corona 19 in Korea.

Since the re-proliferation of Corona 19 in Korea at the beginning of last month, the spreading trend has continued to deteriorate, and the distancing stage has been continuously adjusted upward. In the metropolitan area, steps 1.5 to keep distance on the 19th of last month, the second step on the 24th of the same month, the second step strengthened on the 1st of this month, and the 2.5th step on the 8th were implemented. This month’s consumer sentiment index is expected to decline again, reflecting this impact.

Among the consumer trend surveys, the housing price forecast index is also noted. Last month, the housing price outlook consumer trend index (CSI) reached a record high of 130, up 8 points from the previous month.

Housing Price Forecast CSI is a survey of opinions on housing prices one year later. If it is greater than 100, it means that the number of households who responded that the housing price will rise is greater than the number of households who responded that it will decline.

The housing price forecast CSI fell to 117 in September after hitting 125 in July and August. However, after rebounding to 122 in October, the trend continues to rise, showing expectations of an unbreakable increase in house prices.

Weekly press plan

△28th (Mon)

12:00 Regional Economic Report (December 2020)

12:00 Selected as market maker for the 2021 KRW/yuan direct trading market

△29th Tuesday

06:00 December 2020 Consumer Trend Survey

12:00 Trade Index and Terms of Trade for November 2020

12:00 Recent management price trend and future outlook

△30 days (Wed)

06:00 Checking conditions for demographic changes in the post-corona era

06:00 December 2020 Due Diligence Index (BSI) and Economic Sentiment Index (ESI)

12:00 The impact of changes in the participation structure of Korea’s global branch offices on exports

12:00 Weighted average interest rate for financial institutions in November 2020

△31st (Thursday)

12:00 Lee Joo-yeol, President of the Bank of Korea, New Year’s Address

△ 3 days (Sun)

12:00 Overseas Economic Focus Paper: 7 Issues That Will Determine the World Economy Direction in 2021