[투자노트] Samsung Electronics said’Zonber’ may not be the answer

Input 2021.03.05 08:25 | Revision 2021.03.05 08:34

20 years ago, at the end of February 2001 Samsung Electronics (005930)The stock price was 3740 won (adjusted share price by face-to-face split). Simply calculating, if you invested in Samsung Electronics on that day, you will increase the return rate of about 2103% based on the closing price (82,400 won) on the 4th. Investors who saw the rate of return through the Donghak ant movement further strengthened the perception that Samsung Electronics stocks were collected from the past. In January, Jurin (stock + children) who belatedly bought Samsung Electronics, which broke the highest price every day, and was bitten on the 96th floor (equal to 96,000 won), will also say, “For more than 5 years,’Zonber (a sweet word meaning to endure to the end)’ That’s why I promise.

There is an analysis that makes this’John Verdan’ anxious. In a recent conversation with a researcher at a quant securities company (analyst), he cautiously said, “The belief that’if you bury Samsung Electronics, a leader of the Korean stock market and a superior stock, will someday become money’, it may not be the right belief.” . What does this mean to Samsung Electronics, which has continued to break historical highs until the beginning of this year?

His argument is this. Looking at the history of Samsung Electronics’ stock prices, the stock price/net asset ratio (PBR·share price/net assets per share) has rarely exceeded three times, but it is now more than twice the PBR level. It is approaching the top of the PBR band. He said, “Since 1982, Samsung Electronics’ historical peak has always been at the 3x PBR level,” he said. “It is not common for Samsung Electronics to exceed 2.5x PBR.” Based on the closing price on the 4th, Samsung Electronics’ PBR is about 2.09. As of now, Samsung Electronics’ PBR is 3x at KRW120,000. Several securities companies set target prices for Samsung Electronics at 90,000~120,000 won.

PBR is the value obtained by dividing the market capitalization by equity capital, and is an investment method that analyzes the fair price of stocks. If a company’s PBR is less than 1x, it means that its current share price is lower than the value at which the company went bankrupt or sold all of its assets and liquidated. If the PBR is low, the stock is undervalued, and if it is high, it is considered an overvalued stock. Because of this, investment experts often advise “go away when the PBR is low.” “The PBR band is a simple yet powerful investment tool,” Lee said.

For a company to break through the top of the PBR band, the company itself must structurally change and grow. However, since it is difficult for most companies to change realistically, the PBR band is used as an intuitive investment tool in business cycle stocks. “Samsung Electronics is now gradually entering the top of the PBR band,” Lee said. “Now, it is time for investors to determine whether Samsung Electronics can undergo structural changes or whether it will stagnate in the face of the business cycle again.”

However, it is too early to give up expectations. This is because DRAM and NAND semiconductor prices are expected to rise in earnest from 2Q, improving supply and demand and improving earnings. Kim Dong-won, a researcher at KB Securities, predicted, “From the second quarter of this year, the quarterly operating profit of Samsung Electronics is expected to recover to the 10 trillion won level for the first time after 12.4 trillion won in the third quarter of 2020.” Shinhan Financial Investment Researcher Choi Do-yeon also said, “The memory semiconductor industry is expected to improve very quickly,” and said, “There is no reason why Samsung Electronics, the number one memory semiconductor company, will not participate in the stock price rally, and the stock price has already been sufficiently rested.”