[통화보고서] The 70% rise in house prices is due to domestic factors such as shortage of supply + rising jeonse prices.

An analysis found that 70% of the increase in real estate prices was largely due to domestic factors such as a shortage of supply and an increase in demand due to the increase in jeonse prices. On the other hand, 70% of the rise in stock prices was due to foreign factors.

It is believed that a sharp rise in the price of assets such as houses and stocks can lead to an increase in private debt, leading to asset inequality and financial imbalance.

According to the Monetary Credit Policy Report published by the Bank of Korea on the 11th and submitted to the National Assembly, 71% of the housing market volatility was due to domestic factors. This is lower than that of the United States (87%), Finland (85%) and New Zealand (77%), but far higher than that of the United Kingdom (28%).

On the other hand, the proportion of domestic factors in stock price volatility was only 28%, which was a contrast. On the other hand, the global factor reached 72%.

In the case of the housing market, data for each quarter from the first quarter of 2006 to the second quarter of 2020 were analyzed in the case of the stock market by using the weekly data from January to December 2020 in 15 countries. will be.

We judged that the recent rise in housing prices was caused by concerns over shortage of supply and rising jeonse prices. In particular, a decrease in the supply of new apartments in the metropolitan area was affected by a decrease in sales due to the expectation of an additional increase in housing prices.

In this regard, vice-president Park Jong-seok said, “The rise in house prices was driven by increased demand and concerns about supply shortages. In particular, the number of apartments in Seoul last year decreased. There is a part where the supply of new apartments has decreased. In addition, the disappearance of sales as expectations for rising prices increased. “As the jeonse price rises, the conversion of cheonsei demand to buying and selling, centered on mid- to low-end homes, also acted as a pressure to increase housing prices in terms of demand.” He added, “We need to see what effect the government’s housing supply policy will have.”

Meanwhile, the recent increase in asset prices was evaluated. It is analyzed that optimistic expectations for economic improvement were compounded with easing fiscal and monetary policies.

In particular, the recent rise in housing prices is closely linked to the increase in private debt, so he was concerned that it could act as a risk factor for the financial system and macroeconomics.

Deputy Governor Park said, “There is a possibility of deepening the financial imbalance as household loans increase,” and “Monetary policy will maintain the easing trend, but we are also watching financial stability.”