[코인시황] What is the reason for the 11% decline in Bitcoin?

Muyao Shen

CoinDesk Bitcoin Price Index (BPI)
CoinDesk Bitcoin Price Index (BPI)

■ As of 10 am today, Bitcoin (BTC) was traded for about 53744 dollars each. This is a decrease of about 9.75% in 24 hours.

■ Over the course of 24 hours, the price of bitcoin has been in the range of $54790 to $66,695.

■ Looking at the price chart, the bitcoin price stayed at the 10-hour and 50-hour moving averages. According to technical analysis, this is a sign of solidity.

Bitcoin trading chart on Coinbase.  Source = Trading View
Bitcoin trading chart on Coinbase. Source = Trading View

Bitcoin showed the largest decline in two weeks after an individual investor-led price hike over the weekend. Analysts noted that institutional investors’ participation was sluggish.

The price of bitcoin, which fell to $54790 yesterday morning, rose slightly at 6 o’clock this morning to $56671. Nevertheless This is an 11% decline from the all-time high of $61556 on the 13th.

John Wilcock, CEO of Digital Asset Exchange Blocktane, “Yesterday’s sell-off began right after the Asian exchange opened.”“I see it as a result of these local traders starting a new week and repositioning themselves.”

According to Skew, a cryptocurrency derivatives analyst firm, the size of Bitcoin outstanding pledges on major retail platforms hit new highs over the weekend. However, the size of the bitcoin futures contract pending contract at the institution-oriented Chicago Commercial Exchange (CME) was lower than at the end of last month, when the price of bitcoin first surpassed $58,000.

The total amount of unsettled bitcoin futures at major exchanges OKX, FTX, Kraken, Binance, Deribit, Bybit, BitMEX, Bitfinex, and Huobi.  Source = Skew
The total amount of unsettled bitcoin futures at major exchanges OKX, FTX, Kraken, Binance, Deribit, Bybit, BitMEX, Bitfinex, and Huobi. Source = Skew
The volume of bitcoin futures trading and the size of outstanding contracts in institution-oriented CME.  Source = Skew
The volume of bitcoin futures trading and the size of outstanding contracts in institution-oriented CME. Source = Skew

Trading company QCP Capital said in a weekly report released on the 15th, “Bitcoin surpassed $60,000 on the 13th and recorded an all-time high is related to the closing of the traditional financial market that has suppressed Bitcoin over the weekend.” “It delivers a hopeful message that the pursuit of ordinary investors can induce a price increase,” he said.

“The funding rate for Bitcoin indefinite futures (the average cost of maintaining a long position on the exchange) has risen to 200% on an annual basis,” QCP Capital added. “This is considered unsustainable.”

The lack of support from institutional investors arising from the recent price surge was also evident in the coinbase premium. Coinbase Premium is an indicator of the difference between the bitcoin price on the Coinbase exchange expressed in US Dollars (USD) and the Bitcoin price on Binance Exchange expressed in Stablecoin Tether (USDT).

This indicator fell to negative over the weekend, which means that demand from institutional investors is insignificant. This is in stark contrast to the soaring participation of institutional investors during the last month’s price surge.

Co-founder of cryptocurrency exchange Huobi said, “Bitcoin broke through the $30,000, which was considered a psychological upper limit in January, and immediately exceeded $50,000 in February. The surge was accompanied by strong demand from institutional investors.”

Coinbase Premium vs.  Bitcoin spot price.  Source = Cryptoquant
Coinbase Premium vs. Bitcoin spot price. Source = Cryptoquant

Bitcoin trading volumes on the eight major exchanges included in CoinDesk 20 have remained at the same level. This is in contrast to the soaring in trading volume from the price surge last month.

Bitcoin daily trading volume on 8 major exchanges.  Source = CryptoCompare
Bitcoin daily trading volume on 8 major exchanges. Source = CryptoCompare

Ether, bitcoin and coincident decline

Ether/Bitcoin trading pair ratio on Binance.  Location = Trading View
Ether/Bitcoin trading pair ratio on Binance. Location = Trading View

Ether (ETH) traded at around $1,720 this morning at 10 o’clock. Compared to 24 hours ago, the price is down by about 8.44%. As such, the price of Ether is still largely dependent on the price of Bitcoin.

The Ether-Bitcoin trading pair ratio, which rose to 0.046 at the beginning of last month, has fallen to 0.030 since last weekend.

QCP said in a recently published report that “Ether, affected by the falling bitcoin price, failed to exceed the $2,000 mark.” It was predicted that “the performance will be significantly lower than that of Bitcoin.”

Like Bitcoin, Ether’s spot trading volume also remained unchanged, unlike in the surge at the end of last month. Small price increases are usually considered a short-term phenomenon.

Daily spot trading volume of Ether on 8 major exchanges.  Source = CryptoCompare
Daily spot trading volume of Ether on 8 major exchanges. Source = CryptoCompare

In the derivatives market, the amount of outstanding Ether futures contracts on major exchanges increased to $6.3 billion. However, this is less than $7.1 billion at the time of breaking $2,000 last month.

Total outstanding Ether futures commitments on major exchanges.  Source = Skew
Total outstanding Ether futures commitments on major exchanges. Source = Skew

This story originally appeared on CoinDesk, the global leader in blockchain news and publisher of the Bitcoin Price Index. view BPI.

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