[코인시황] Bitcoin futures premium increase: 22-25% including FTX

■ As of 9:30 a.m. today, Bitcoin (BTC) was traded for about 58174 dollars each. That’s a drop of about 1.76% over 24 hours.

■ Over the course of 24 hours, the price of bitcoin has gone between $57241 and $59,484.

■ Looking at the price chart, the bitcoin price was below the 10-hour and 50-hour moving averages. According to technical analysis, this is a bearish signal.

Bitcoin futures premium steadily increasing

Recently, the market’s interest is focused on altcoins, which have recorded a three-digit and even four-digit growth rate. In comparison, the price of bitcoin is relatively inactive.

Last week, Bitcoin remained relatively unchanged, moving between $55,522 and $60,102. On the other hand, Ether rose by more than 20%, surpassing $2100, breaking a new high.

However, investment in futures products has steadily increased in the bitcoin derivatives market in recent weeks.

Derivatives exchanges centered on individual investors such as FTX, BitMEX, Deribit, Binance, etc. The annual futures premium rate averaged 22-25%. On the other hand, it was about 13% on the Chicago Commercial Exchange (CME), which is focused on institutional investors. The annual futures premium rate is usually used as a measure of a bull market for investments.

This increase in futures premiums (the gap between futures and spot prices) is more and more recent despite the relatively low bitcoin performance. Many individual investors are optimistic about the market.It is interpreted to mean that there is a problem.

“Investors are holding on to expect higher prices,” said Bendick Noheim, senior researcher at Arcane Research.

However, as the uptrend increases, the risk of rapid buying is also increasing. In the bitcoin market, a whopping $27.5 billion long position was liquidated during the first quarter of this year. Arcane Research analyzed this as “reflecting the enormous leverage that occurred as the bitcoin price surged earlier this year.”

“A significant increase in futures premiums means that the market’s confidence has risen too much and leverage has increased. This is a very worrisome topic. This situation usually leads to large liquidations and sharp price drops, so investors should consider ways to eliminate the risk.”

Ether and altcoins

■ Ether (ETH) traded for about $2120 as of 9:30 this morning. Compared to 24 hours ago, the price is down by about 0.13%.

■ Over the course of 24 hours, Ether prices ranged between $2045 and $2151.

■ Looking at the price chart, the Ether price exceeded the 10-hour and 50-hour moving averages. According to technical analysis, this is a bullish signal.

Altcoins, including Ether, continued to outperform Bitcoin. Ether has been trading at more than $2,000 ever since it hit a record high the day before.

Simon Peters, a cryptocurrency analyst at eToro, said, “The recent surge in Ether prices stemmed from the announcement that Visa will support US dollar coin (USDC) payments.”

“A significant amount of Ether is tied to the DeFi project and the Ethereum 2.0 deposit. This drastically reduced the amount of Ether traded in the market, and the announcement of Visa led to an increase in demand, leading to an increase in prices.”

As of April 6, the amount of Ether tied to DeFi is more than 10 million, which is an increase of 7 million from three months ago. Also, about 40,000 are deposited in Ethereum 2.0.

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