[취재파일] Shaky conservative public sentiment… Mayor of Seoul passport, opposition to the mayor of Busan?

Various public opinion polls are pouring out ahead of the by-election of the Mayor of Seoul and the Busan Mayor in April. The number of approval ratings for each candidate appears, and’differences’ between competing candidates appear, making it difficult for candidates to stand up. However, since there is a range of error from the position of reporting, if it is within that range, it cannot be easily judged that who is leading or superior, and of course, it cannot be expressed. However, it is a trend that is mainly seen in the poll results.

The hottest issue ahead of the by-election of the mayor of Seoul, which is more than 50 days left, is also’unification’. SBS asked about the suitability of the pan-passport and pan-opposition candidates in the New Year’s polls following the New Year’s poll in January, as it was interested in who will be the representative opposition players.

First of all, in terms of suitability for pan-passport candidates, the Democratic Party Park Young-sun 30%, Woo Sang-ho 9.8%, the Open Democratic Party Kim Jin-ae 2.1%, and the Time Transition Cho Jung-hoon 0.3% (Initially, the Open Democratic Party candidate Jeong Bong-ju was also included in the survey, but was excluded after the finalization of candidate Kim Jin-ae. Refer to). Candidate Park increased by 11.6 percentage points, and Candidate Woo increased by 4 percentage points, while Candidate Kim did not show much difference.

	January polls	New Year’s opinion poll
Park Young-sun	18.4%	30.0%
Sangho right	5.8%	9.8%
Kim Jinae	2.2%	2.1%

In particular, more than half of the Democratic Party supporters chose Park candidate (Park Young-sun 50.7%, Woo Sang-ho 16.7%). In the January poll, the Democratic Party’s supporters chose 31.7% Park and 10.4% Woo Sang-ho, and Park’s rise was even greater. In late January, after Park officially made the run, the Democratic Party’s support base seems to be remarkable.

The relevance of candidates for pan-optics with a sharper’unification’ issue was Ahn Chul-soo, the National Assembly representative 27%, the power of the people, Na Kyung-won, former lawmaker 15.5%, and Oh Se-hoon, former Seoul mayor 11.8% (hereinafter referred to as candidate). The public opinion that Ahn was the pan-opposition candidate remained, but the trend has changed a bit. Compared to the January polls, candidates Ahn Chul-soo and Oh Se-hoon did not show much difference, but Na Gyeong-won rose 8.1 percentage points.

	January polls	New Year’s opinion poll
Ahn Cheol-soo	26.9%	27.0%
Na Kyungwon	7.4%	15.5%
Oh Sehun	12.1%	11.8%

Looking at the characteristics of each respondent, among the supporters of the people’s strength, Ahn Cheol-soo 31.7% and Na Gyeong-won 31.5%. In the January poll, the votes of the supporters of the people’s strength were 42.1% Ahn and 17.3% Na Kyungwon. Candidate Ahn was down 10.4 percentage points, while Candidate Na rose 17.5 percentage points. As a result, it can be analyzed that the likelihood of the candidate is rising among those who support the people’s strength.

As the number of candidates narrowed, we also looked at the results of a virtual confrontation between the opposition candidates. Press ahead ▶ [여론조사] In the face-to-face match between Park Young-seon and Ahn, Cheol-soo, I also told you about the super close match within the margin of error. The result was a confrontation between Park Young-seon and Ahn Chul-soo.

When analyzing by party support, 82.3% of Democrats supported Park, and 12.4% chose Ahn. This is a relatively favorable result for Ahn, compared to only 4.6% of the people’s strength and the people’s party supporters, who chose Park. In addition, as a result, if the opposition is unified from the opposition to Ahn Chul-soo, it is also possible to predict that there will be fewer departures from the opposition vote.

	Park Young-sun	Ahn Cheol-soo
Democratic support	82.3%	12.4%
The support of the people’s strength	4.6%	81.3%
The supporters of the National Assembly	4.6%	83.7%

Changes in public sentiment about the results of the by-election are also detected. In the January survey and this New Year survey, I asked which of the opposition parties would win. He asked the mayor of Seoul and Busan to predict whether the passport or the opposition will take all of them, or whether they will win one by one.

The percentage of winning all opposition was 7.3 percentage points higher. However, when compared to the January poll, the public sentiment has changed. The opposition victory prediction decreased by 8.9 percentage points, and the so-called’draw’ prediction ratio increased by 7.8 percentage points. ▶ [여론조사] ‘Opposition victory’ 30.3% vs’Passport victory’ 23%

To analyze the trend further, 28.1% of the opinion polls in January said that they would win one place in the Democratic Party support group, but in the New Year’s poll, it increased 7.5 percentage points to 35.6%. Among the supporters of the people’s strength, the ratio of predicting the opposition victory from 78.5% to 64.8% fell by 13.7 percentage points compared to the January survey and the New Year’s survey, and the expectation of winning one place increased by 9.7 percentage points from 6.1% to 15.8%. It is analyzed that the opinion poll reflects the fact that the Democratic Party supporters are seeing hope that they can realistically win the Seoul Mayor’s election, and the people’s supporters have a sense of crisis that they can lose in Seoul due to the unclear opposition of opposition.

In summary, the current trend is that candidate Park Young-seon is ahead of the passport in the by-election of the mayor of Seoul, and the support of Candidate Chul-soo Ahn remains in the opposition. However, public sentiment can change at any time. In particular, the biggest variable in the opposition is whether or not the unity is actually achieved. The beautiful unity in the opposition is a winning card, but the opposite is a critical hit. In addition, in the situation of the opposition candidate Park Bing-in, the vote of the Justice Party supporters who did not vote for the by-election due to the party representative’s sexual misconduct is also a point to watch.

► January (New Year) poll

Investigation request: SBS / Investigation agency: Ipsos / Investigation date and time: 2020.12.28-30

Detailed information, including the entire questionnaire, can be found at the Central Public Opinion Review Committee.

► New Year’s opinion poll

Investigation request: SBS / Investigation agency: Ipsos / Investigation date and time: 2021.2.6-9

Detailed information, including the entire questionnaire, can be found at the Central Public Opinion Review Committee.