[초점] Yellen-Powell’s’Bitcoin Uprising’ overpowered…the bond market is still suspicious

[블록미디어] Fed Chair Jerome Powell is a man with no flashy speech. He was more caring than Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. Because that’s the role. When Yellen throws, Powell takes it and handles it. Baseball is a pitcher game, not a catcher game.

# Maintain ultra-low interest rate
There was nothing special about Powell’s remarks at the Senate hearing on Tuesday. In summary, it will take a while for the game to return to the level before the Corona Pandemic. Therefore, we maintain the ultra-low interest rate trend.

Let’s look at the market reaction. Dow, S&P Kang Bo-hap, Nasdaq fell 0.5%. It is significant that S&P ended its decline for 5 consecutive days. The NASDAQ also dropped to 4% and recovered even this much, so you did well.

The dollar index rose 0.11 to 90.12. Even if you look at the euro/dollar and dollar/yen, the dollar is strong.

“Inflation concerns grow, bond yields rise, the dollar loses power… “President Biden has a terrible situation that he doesn’t even want to think of, with a combination of Secretary Yellon and Chairman Powell.

# “Please be quiet until you pass the stimulus package”
The stimulus package, the $1.9 trillion bill, is set to be voted in the House of Representatives on Friday or Saturday. In the meantime, the financial market shouldn’t fluctuate. First of all it is success. There are reasons for both Yellen and Powell to appear.

We need to curb the rise in bond yields and silence the noisy bitcoins for a while. In particular, Elon Musk. Musk and his Bitcoin followers who were noisy buying bitcoins saying they were better than dollars must have been disgusting.

By the way, by the way. The bond market is not yet at the stage of peace. Maybe it’s more serious.

# Long-term bond yield rise
The 10-year Treasury Bond yield is 1.362%. It was down by 0.008 percentage points from the previous day. The interest rate went down, so the two combinations went as they wanted.

Let’s look at the 30-year Treasury Bonds. 2.2%. It increased by 0.02% point from the previous day. What is it? What is the interest rate of 1 or 2%? It seems like nothing from the point of view of the digital market, where a 10% surge and plunge every day are common.

In absolute terms, it is lower than the pandemic, and historically very low interest rates are correct. The problem is the difference between the rate of interest rate rise and the short and long termis.

# Policy power problem
Monetary policy only works on the shorter maturity side. With the power of money, central banks can push short-term interest rates. If that doesn’t work, you buy long-term bonds directly from the bond market. The Fed is doing it now.

Long-term interest rates reflect future inflationary pressuresDo it. It’s not too much of a concern’yet’, but the trend of rising 30-year interest rates faster than 10-year interest rates has not stopped.

This is a matter of policy power. If the long-term interest rate rises even though the Fed is pouring money, the market will not listen. We are more concerned about inflation. If the two combinations say “not that much”, there may be stronger words and stronger actions.

The bond market doesn’t seem to fully trust the two combinations.

# Stock market and Bitcoin $44,000
Let’s look at it for a second and go to the stock market. If Biden gets $1.9 trillion in hand, he’ll sprinkle that money. Inflation is a problem later, and you have to find where the money goes first. The hardest place due to the pandemic. Flight, accommodation and service. Technology stocks and growth stocks should be put aside for a while The same.

Representative airline. American Airlines Group increased 1.08% and Delta Airlines increased 1.26%. Let’s look at the cruise company that completely ruined its operations. The Royal Caribbean Group soared 4.43%. Financial stocks cannot be left out. Citigroup rose 1.86% and JPMorgan rose 0.80%. lodgment. Hyatt Hotel soared 3.34%.

Let’s look at Bitcoin related shares. Tesla fell 2.19%, MicroStrategy plunged 21.09%, PayPal fell 3.23%. Bitcoin is only breathing in the $48,000 range.

Microscopically, the question is where the bitcoin resistance line is. We must also carefully look at whether the policy power is maintained. Bitcoin is a rebel. Cryptoquant CEO Ju-Young Ju sees $44,000 as a strong resistance line. Please refer to the whale expert.

Chairman Powell is also present in the House on Wednesday.