[차이나인사이트] Taiwan in the Biden-Xi Jinping Era will be the first battleground in the US-China clash?

“Currently, the world’s largest collision risk area is Taiwan. When China and Taiwan collide, the United States will send aircraft carriers to aid Taiwan’s defense, and China will encourage Russia to prevent US forces from entering East Asia. As a result, Europe is also caught up in the phone.” This is the view of Wolfgang Isinger, chairman of the Munich Security Council (MSC). The Taiwan Strait is rocking.

Taiwan is rapidly emerging as the battlefield of the US-China conflict during the era of US President Joe Biden. In the background, complicated bilateral relations are struggling so that it will not be strange any time an armed conflict erupts.

In addition, China’s ambition to achieve the unification of Taiwan in order to realize the Chinese dream of building the world’s strongest country, and the US position that Taiwan cannot be surrendered in order to suppress the rise of China in the 21st century collided fiercely. It is rocking.

First, let’s start with the bilateral relationship, which increases the wave height. The spring days of both sides ended with President Cai Ing-wen appeared in Taiwan in 2016. Former Kuomintang president, Ma Ying-ji-wu, stabilized both sides with a three-dollar policy that denied reunification, independence, and armed forces.

In particular, the continent and Taiwan shared the perception with China that they were’one China’. However, Tsai Ing-won from the Democratic Party is different. I hope to have a Taiwan-centered view of history and separate from China and become independent. Whenever I can, I want to erase China.

It is natural that harsh words come out in China. Chinese President Xi Jinping said on January 2, 2019, “We will do our best in peaceful reunification, but we do not promise to give up the use of force.” It is a declaration that he will use force whenever necessary.

China has since stepped forward to neutralize the middle line of the Taiwan Strait. The normalization of crossing the midline of Chinese fighters is ongoing. Originally, the middle line was driven to Taiwan, but in terms of air supply, it was set by the U.S. for fear that the Taiwanese air force of Wusei-don Zhang Zeshi would attack the continent.

But now the situation is reversed. If China crosses the middle line and opposes it, and Taiwan crosses the line, the concept of the middle line disappears. This is the sea that China wants. This is because, as Beijing thought,’the civil war is not over yet’, and the Taiwan issue can be thoroughly transformed into a domestic issue.

As such, the instantaneous Taiwan Strait is emerging as the largest gunpowder depot that will cause a clash between the US and China. US Indo-Pacific Command Commander Philip Davidson said at a US Senate hearing earlier this month that “Taiwan is an ambitious target for China and the threat will become apparent in the next six years.

Why did you say’within 6 years’? The next six years is 2027. 2027 marks the 100th anniversary of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army. Xi Jinping emphasized “the goal of 100 years of struggle for Gungun” at the party conference last year. What should be the goal of striving for the Gungun 100 years?

The Chinese military name has the answer. The Chinese army is called the Liberation Army. After the liberation of the continent, it was once renamed as the’National Defense Force’, but it was renamed as the Liberation Army again because it failed to fulfill its historical mission to liberate Taiwan.

This is the background of the saying that China will invade Taiwan in 2027, the 100th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Liberation Army. 2027 is also a very important year politically for Xi Jinping, who seeks to take office for a long time. Xi Jinping, who became number one through the 18th party conference in 2012, will end the second term in power in 2022.

In the past, the 3rd and 4th generation leaders, such as Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao, had only ten years in office. However, Xi Jinping is not satisfied. Next year, the 20th Party Congress is expected to serve three consecutive terms, and in the fall of 2027, the 21st Party Congress is expected to challenge four consecutive terms.

Is there anything more about the justification of Xi Jinping’s four consecutive years than trying to free Taiwan and achieve China’s unification? The United States pays attention to this point. In order to suppress the rise of China, the unification of Taiwan must first be prevented.

Taiwan, which looks like a sweet potato, connects China’s East China Sea with the South China Sea. It is also a key point for China to expand into the Pacific Ocean. The Northern Tropic Route passes through near Chiayi city in central and southern Taiwan, separating Northeast Asia from Southeast Asia.

The fact that Taiwan was invaded by Spain and the Netherlands, which were attempting to advance into Northeast Asia in the past, is largely due to Taiwan’s geographical advantage. In addition, in the sense of’enemy enemy’s friend’, Taiwan’s hostile relationship with China in the US’s East Asian strategy exceeds that of Korea and the Philippines.

The international relations in Northeast Asia are complicated by the international politics of multilateral relations where conflicts of interests between countries are encountered. However, the Taiwan issue appears as a confrontation of bilateral relations in which the US can directly influence foreign politics, which focuses on China’s domestic politics.

The Taiwan issue is directly related to China’s identity, and the United States directly exerts pressure on it to increase the effectiveness of the public containment policy. In addition, Taiwan, where Western values ​​such as freedom and human rights are embodied, also functions to pressure China’s national system.

The current political situation in Taiwan, which is friendly with the US and Japan, is also in the interests of the United States. In the past, the United States preferred the Nationalist Party, which wanted to maintain the status quo between the two sides. I didn’t think I was happy with the Democratic Party, which was trying to overcome the status quo. However, the Democratic Party is more welcome now when it has to press on China.

Of course, China is trying to avoid interference from other countries, saying that the Taiwan issue is a Chinese domestic issue in the extension of the national and public civil war. However, after China’s plan for peaceful unification, the’one country’s two regime’, was revealed as a failure through the Hong Kong crisis, it became difficult to view the Taiwan issue as a framework for one country and two systems.

Taiwan is quite different from Hong Kong. If Hong Kong was a British colony, Taiwan served as a permanent member of the United Nations until 1971, and still maintains diplomatic relations with several countries. It also has a close relationship with Southeast Asian countries through the New South Direction Policy.

China claims that Taiwan is a “part of the sacred land,” and there is a limit to the domestic issue of Taiwan. After all, the Taiwan issue means that China must engage in an international war similar to a civil war with the allied forces between Taiwan and the United States and Japan.

Taiwan is a “non-sunken aircraft carrier” that checks China for the domestic affairs that China will most hurt in the United States. The problem is that the more the U.S. tightens the chain of checks against China, and the more Xi Jinping increases his ambitions for reunification, the greater the likelihood of a US-China conflict. The Biden-Xi Jinping era is going like that now.

Jin-ho Kim Professor, Department of Political Surgery, Dankook University