[줌인] The rosy prospect of’Don Tree Sister’ overcoming bad news from China

Input 2021.03.23 10:35

The share price of Tesla, an electric car maker in the US, rose more than 6% during the day on the 22nd (local time) and rebounded successfully. It is none other than’Money Tree Sister (Cash Wood)’ who rescued Tesla from the recent decline. Ark Invest, an ETF (listed-indicated fund) manager, led by him, offered Tesla’s target price of $3,000 last week. This is the highest number among Tesla-related analyzes to date, with the highest price of $1,200 before.

According to Bloomberg et al., Tesla’s share price ended at $670 on the US New York Stock Exchange, up 2.31% compared to the battlefield. The closing price on the 19th was $654.87. Tesla’s share price surged more than 6% on the same day, approaching $700, but last-minute sales poured out and did not increase the rise.

Reuters analyzed that Tesla’s share price hike was driven by an “optimistic report” by ArcInvest.

In an investment note released on the 19th, Arc Invest predicted that Tesla’s share price will reach the $3,000 range by 2025 and will record at least $1,500 even in a bear market. It is assumed that Tesla will create a fully autonomous vehicle within the next five years and expand the’Robo Taxi’ service based on this. If this prediction is true, Tesla’s market capitalization will exceed 3 trillion dollars (about 3380 trillion won). ArcInvest saw a 50% likelihood that Tesla will create a fully autonomous vehicle within this period.

Ark Invest believes that Tesla’s stock price can reach $4,000 in the’best scenario’ in which Tesla succeeds in commercializing autonomous vehicles faster than this. In addition, Tesla’s electric vehicle sales are also forecast to reach 234 billion to 367 billion dollars by 2025. Tesla recorded total sales of $31.5 billion last year, up 28% from the previous year.

Arc Invest’s rosy outlook also offset the bad news that the Chinese government imposed a ban on Tesla vehicles on military and state-owned employees. The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on the 19th that various data collected through Tesla cameras and sensors could be dangerous to national security. Reported that they were instructed not to drive Tesla electric vehicles.

The industry that received the news analyzed that it was similar to the reason mentioned when the US sanctioned Huawei, a telecommunications equipment company in China, and that China was actually taking retaliatory measures. In this case, Tesla’s future will never be bright, relying on the Chinese market for 25% of its total sales. On the 19th, when the actual WSJ report came out, the US and China ended the first high-level talks held after the inauguration of the US administration Joe Biden without even a joint announcement.

However, Wall Street still categorizes Tesla as a bubbly sport. In the market, it has been said that Tesla will launch a robo taxi service from 2015, but there are still no signs that Tesla can realize this. Tesla is selling an autopilot package that includes the Fully Autonomous Driving (FSD) option, but recently told California state authorities that drivers must continue to supervise new city street features when operating the package.

In this regard, Nicholas Collas, co-founder of market analyst DataTrack Research, told Bloomberg, “To reach a market cap of $3 trillion, Tesla must support the profitability of its business model.” He pointed out, “I can’t go to 1 trillion dollars, let alone 3 trillion dollars,”

There are also steadily pointing out that ArcInvest should not be overlooked as Tesla’s most ardent supporter. You can’t immediately believe what influential shareholders say in the company. It is reported that ArcInvest currently owns $2.5 billion worth of Tesla shares. With a value of $24 billion, Tesla’s share of the fund is the highest at 10%. ArcInvest also revealed that it bought more Tesla shares last month, when Tesla stock prices plummeted.