[주간증시 전망]Departing in January with anticipation for the’KOSPI 3000 Era’… “There is still room for rising

[아시아경제 오주연 기자] Although the domestic stock market is burdened by the surge in November and December of last year, an analysis that there is still upside potential in January of this year is drawing attention.

According to KB Securities on the 3rd, this year’s KOSPI net profit is expected to increase 52.3% from the previous year to 13.6 trillion won. As vaccination for the novel coronavirus infection (Corona 19) is accelerated, the semiconductor super cycle is also moving from 2Q to 1Q, and profit estimates for secret and domestic sectors are being raised. It is believed that the steep dollar weakness is fueling the rebound in commodity prices, which is a catalyst for profit recovery in the secret sector.

In this atmosphere, the January stock market predicted that there was no clear “external force” to suppress the bull market, and expectations for “4th quarter results” and “Biden government” would work positively. It is analyzed that the 4Q earnings surprise rate is high, and that President Joe Biden, who will be launched this year, will rapidly pour out policies that are differentiated from the previous government.

Lee Eun-taek, a researcher at KB Securities, said, “There is a possibility that the KOSPI, which has surged in the short-term, will be in a short-term lull due to exhaustion of materials such as vaccines and additional stimulus measures, but it is not a situation that needs to realize profits.” “There are two good news that will lead the stock market’s rebound in January,” said Lee, and predicted that the fourth quarter results will turn out to be a surprise, and expectations for the Biden government will move the market from mid-January. As risks to watch out for in the month, he cited the re-proliferation of Corona 19 and lockdown policies such as banning going out due to this, and the US elections in Georgia.

Samsung Securities presented an estimate of the January KOSPI band between 2750 and 2950. It is explained that the below neutral air current is inevitable in the global macro environment during the year-end and New Year holidays, including the US 4Q GDP. In addition, the US Senate elections in Georgia, scheduled for the coming 5th, have the potential to have a ripple effect that limits biden’s new government policy expectations and reignites political uncertainty. It is explained that this will lead to a slowing momentum in domestic and overseas stock markets.

However, this year’s KOSPI target band was raised to the 2700~3300 line. Samsung Securities researcher Kim Yong-gu said, “The process of narrowing the distance between the hot sentimental and the cold reality may weaken the momentum of the stock market’s rise in January, but this year, KOSPI has developed a corona vaccine and treatment, Expectations for an economic recovery are strengthening, and the current earnings momentum is at the top of the global market. Considering the earnings visibility secured by the semiconductor super cycle and the expectation of an earnings growth trend driven by the economy and policies, the top of the KOSPI this year is raised to the 3300 line. “This is possible.”

In addition, “The current consensus on operating profit of KOSPI in 2021 is a preliminary fact that the possibility of a rapid earnings normalization to the level of 186 trillion won in 2017, which was the starting point of a major bull market.” It means I can.”

Reporter Oh Joo-yeon [email protected]