[정치]April’s political watershed on the Korean peninsula… paying attention to three major variables including the US policy toward North Korea

[앵커]

As North Korea is gradually raising the level of pressure, such as successive missile launches and talks, there is a high prospect that next month will be a watershed for the situation on the Korean Peninsula.

In particular, it is an analysis that the biden administration’s decision on North Korea policy and Kim Il-sung’s birthday are at the crossroads of rising tensions and seeking dialogue.

Reporter Lee Kyo-jun.

[기자]

As a final step in the Biden administration’s review of North Korea policy, a meeting of the Japan-Korea Security Officers will be held in Washington this week.

The key is whether the peace process on the Korean peninsula can be restarted or whether the three countries can narrow the disagreement.

[김현욱 / 국립외교원 교수 : 일본은 제재 압박, 그리고 완전한 비핵화를 위해서 1단계 스몰딜에 대해서 일본은 상당히 강하게 반대하는 입장이기 때문에 어느 쪽 입장이 채택될지…]

The US government is expected to come up with a new policy toward North Korea as early as mid-next month after coordination with its allies.

At the first press conference after taking office, President Biden maintained a cautious attitude while warning of a principled response to North Korea’s provocation of ballistic missiles.

[조 바이든 / 미국 대통령 (25일 기자회견) : 동맹과 파트너들과 협의하고 있고 대응이 있을 것입니다. 긴장 고조를 선택한다면 우리는 그에 따라 대응할 것입니다.]

Accordingly, whether or not North Korea provokes additional provocations is expected to be a variable that will determine the level of US response.

The inflection point is predominantly around the solar day on the 15th of the following month.

This is because there is concern that the anti-US atmosphere will be heightened and the pressure will continue through armed demonstrations.

[남성욱 / 고려대 통일외교학부 교수 : 북한 입장에서는 미국의 추후 동향을 살펴보면서 500km 내외의 단거리 도발은 언제든지 할 가능성을 배제할 수 없습니다.]

However, as can be seen from the fact that Kim Jong-un has adjusted the pressure level, such as not directly observing the missile launch, the possibility of resumption of talks between the US and the United States is also open.

In addition, the movement of solidarity between North Korea and China against the US amid intensifying conflict between the United States and China is also considered a variable.

If North Korea and China speed up the strengthening of anti-US solidarity in the economic and military fields following the oral exchange of letters between the leaders, it could affect the flow of dialogue between the two countries.

In this regard, whether or not trade between North Korea and China resumes is expected to be a measure of the pace of North Korea’s close contact with China.

YTN Kyojun Lee[[email protected]]is.

[저작권자(c) YTN & YTN plus 무단전재 및 재배포 금지]