[정치][취재N팩트] Unification negotiations continue to suffer at the last minute… public opinion polls are inevitable

[앵커]

As the negotiations for the unification of the opposition candidates for the mayor of Seoul are struggling, the opinion poll, which was scheduled to be conducted for two days starting today (17th), is also disrupting.

The people’s strength and the working-level negotiations on both sides of the People’s Party are currently negotiating at the last minute, but they are still unable to narrow their disagreements over key issues such as the phrases of public opinion polls.

Connect with reporters to the National Assembly. Reporter, manager!

First, let’s start with the progress of the negotiations.

Since this morning, the working-level negotiations of both sides have met. Have you reached a conclusion?

[기자]

In the morning, I was wondering if there would be a conclusion, but it’s still in the dark.

The power of the people who continued the tug-of-war until late last night, the negotiators of both sides of the Nationalist Party, met again this morning.

We met our heads all morning, but we couldn’t reach an agreement and decided to meet again later at 3pm.

Let’s see it for yourself.

[정양석 / 국민의힘 사무총장 : (협상이) 막바지지만 진행 중에 있고요. 오늘 3시에 전체 협상팀이, 양당 협상팀이 다시 만나서 좀 조율을 하도록….]

As it passed this morning, which was selected as the negotiating marginal line, a setback was inevitable in the polls that were decided to be conducted for two days from today.

The negotiating team also admitted that it was physically difficult to conduct a poll today.

After all, the only time left is one day tomorrow.

[이태규 / 국민의당 사무총장 : 단일후보 등록을 19일 날 6시까지만 하면 되니까, 거기에 필요한 시간, 물리적 시간을 확보할 수 있다고 생각을 합니다.]

[앵커]

The biggest reason for the increase in negotiations until the last minute is also the questionnaire survey, right?

[기자]

Yes, this is the biggest reason the tug of war continues.

You’re going to put a question in the poll questionnaire.

At first glance, it seems like a simple problem, but as the difference is determined by 0.01%, it is a part that the candidate cannot withdraw.

Looking at the composition, the power of the people is asking about the suitability of the candidate, that is, who is the right candidate for the mayor of Seoul, and the National Party is insisting to ask this question, who is the competitive candidate as the mayor of Seoul?

Candidate Se-Hoon Oh is a good fit, and Candidate Ahn Cheol-soo has a clear advantage in competitiveness.

At first glance, it sounds like a similar question, but if you look at the actual poll results, the candidate vote rate varies considerably for each question.

So far, six times head-to-head, we have reached a certain degree of agreement to ask about suitability and competitiveness together, but we are not able to narrow the disagreement in detail as to how far we will mix them.

Candidate Se-Hoon Oh, on the morning of the 17th, CBS radio’Kim Hyun-jung’s News Show’ complained that Ahn’s side brought out a phrase in the form of a’virtual confrontation’ that had never been written in political history.

In response, Lee Tae-gyu, secretary general of the People’s Party, refuted that “virtual confrontation” is the most concise and effective polling method used by media companies, and that they are not familiar with this.

The two sides have confronted whether or not to specify the party name and party preference in the polls, but the agreement has been reached until the party name is written in part by reflecting the claims of the people’s power.

[앵커]

Another issue is the subject of investigation?

[기자]

Yes, as the negotiations approached the last minute, the question of how to select the polls has emerged as a new issue.

Specifically, it is how to determine the ratio of wired and wireless phone numbers, but as it is a factor that can shake the results of the investigation, the fight is fierce.

First of all, the people’s strength is to increase the proportion of wireless phones that are used by all ages, but also to include 10-20% of fixed-line phone numbers. We are confronting that we have to write.

In general, it is a common belief that landline telephones are advantageous for conservatives, and wireless is advantageous for intermediate and progressive parties.

This is because the higher the wireless rate, the higher the probability of receiving a response from the economically active youth, but landline phones are more likely to be answered by the elderly and other inactive populations.

Lee Tae-gyu, Secretary General of the People’s Party, argues that it is appropriate to use the safety number provided by the election committee in this election, but the people’s power came out with something completely unfamiliar.

I asked the polls, but they say that there is no correct answer.

In the election process like this this time, it is said that in terms of sampling consistency, receiving a safe number provided by the NEC can reduce disputes.

In fact, it is a reality that organizations such as Real Meter and Gallup are generally investigating a mixture of wired and wireless phones.

In the end, I think it should be viewed as a matter of how both sides view compromise rather than right or wrong.

[앵커]

Originally, it was decided to conduct a public opinion poll for two days from today, and to decide on a single candidate by the deadline for registration the day after tomorrow (19th). Will there be any disruptions if the negotiations are delayed like this?

[기자]

As the negotiations are delayed, it is expected that a disruption will be inevitable in the schedule of the polls agreed between the candidates.

As mentioned earlier, even if an agreement is reached within today, there is only one day tomorrow for the actual poll.

There will be practical difficulties as the investigation period has been reduced, but it is physically possible.

Two public opinion polls have already been established.

It is difficult to confirm specifically which agency was selected because it is highly confidential, but industry observations that the NEC safe number must be applied at least a week in advance to receive it, so that all preparations have already been made and only the negotiation result will be awaited.

Then, at 6 pm the day after, there will be no problem in deciding a single candidate before the deadline for registration.

However, even with a time limit for unification based on the cause of the opposition championship victory, headwinds seem inevitable if the negotiations are distorted due to mutual disagreement.

YTN Vice President in the National Assembly so far[[email protected]]is.