[정치][인터뷰투데이] Recorded the highest pre-voting rate ever…Where will the election D-2 match?

■ Progress: Anchor Jaeyoon Lee, Anchor Seungmin Lee
■ Cast: Taeksoo Lee / Representative of Real Meter

* The text below may differ from the actual broadcast content, so please check the broadcast for more accurate information.

[앵커]

4.7 The re-election by-election is now two days ahead. Based on the re-election, this pre-voting ended with the highest turnout ever, and both parties are interpreting it in their own favor.

[앵커]

Let’s take a look at the high pre-voting rate, which one will benefit you, and how it will affect the actual voting results with an expert. Lee Taek-soo is the representative of Real Meter. Hello?

[이택수]

Hello.

[앵커]

There was a pre-voting last Friday and Saturday. It was the highest among the past by-elections. Also, the pre-voting was higher than in the 2018 local election. How can you interpret the cause?

[이택수]

This is an election for the mayors of Seoul and Busan. Because about a quarter of all the voters are included, the vote is close to the national election. And it has been reported a lot over a long period of time.

Another thing is that the conservatives had a very low approval rating, so there was a story that it was a slanted playground before the next presidential election, but now it is worth trying again in the conservative camp. Because of that, the pre-voting rate increased.

And because the voting day tomorrow, which is the main voting day, is not a holiday, so it rained a lot. In the case of rain, it is difficult for parents in their 30s to 40s who have children to go to play, so I wonder if they went to the polls a lot.

[앵커]

Pre-voting is actually a lot of active supporters who say they will not change their minds even if any suspicions or new issues arise until the voting period.

Which side will this part be advantageous? Of course, it’s not easy to predict, but how can you interpret it if you make a careful guess?

[이택수]

Pre-voting was about 25-26% based on the last general election. 2030 and 40 generations vote a lot. So, in the case of the last general election, the Democratic Party approval rate was clearly higher than that of the main vote. In this case, especially in their 40s and 30s, which can be called swing boaters, they used to be swing boaters in the past, but nowadays, they say that the 20s are swing boaters.

That’s why, when looking at the results of the polls released until the end, the Democratic Party’s approval rating was relatively higher in those in their 30s and 40s compared to other age groups.

In the case of 20s, unlike in their 30s and 40s, similar to those in their 50s or 60s, candidate Oh Se-hoon leads or Park Hyeong-jun leads.

That is why the 2030 and 40 generations responded to the polls saying that they would relatively more pre-voting, but in the past, Democratic candidates are a little more advantageous.

However, in this by-election, those who have the advantage of the people’s power are also appearing since their twenties, so the pre-voting rate is high and low.

[앵커]

However, with the pre-voting rate, the pre-voting rate is now classified as a distinction. I am arguing in this way that this is in favor of each other’s Yeona Yana and Sudang. Jongno-gu had the highest pre-voting rate in Seoul. Does it have any special meaning?

[이택수]

In fact, in the case of Jongno, it was already No. 1 in the entire district of Seoul at the time of the last general election. The pre-voting rate reaches the mid-30% level. Therefore, the regions with high pre-voting are the first, regions with high interest, and regions with high interest in voting, and the other is the distinction, regions that were tight during the last general election. The same is true of Dongjak-gu.

Areas known to be a little taut had high pre-voting rates. Similar to the last general election, the pre-voting was high in areas with tighter interest and organization in the order of Jongno and Dongjak.In fact, it is difficult to determine which party candidate is advantageous when analyzing only by region and distinction. Actually, you need to know the information for each class.

Local information is coming out right now, but the voter turnout by class actually comes out a few months after the vote is over. So, it seems difficult to determine which candidate will be advantageous for now.

[앵커]

But, have you not actively encouraged pre-voting without having to be in this election? At the same time, there were a lot of certification shots, but in the case of Democratic Party lawmaker Goh Kohn-jung, this was a controversy due to the fact that this photo was posted on social media by voting for certification with his bare hands, right?

[이택수]

The gap is so big right now, and because the poll results came out just before the public announcement deadline, first of all, the supporters were gathered to come to the polls. In particular, it is possible for the progressive and democratic parties, which show strong advance voting, to do so.

The problem can be said to be a strategy to collect rabbits, but now the problem is that the middle class, which can be called a swing boater, or the 20’s, should be absorbed as the supporters of the Democratic Party, which may be a bit limited in that respect.

Since there are more negative articles than positive articles, those parts can be helpful for pre-voting, but it can be said that these parts may not be helpful for the main vote.

[앵커]

In addition to the problems of Rep. Kohn Jung-jung, it seems that candidate Park Young-sun was broadcasting on YouTube at an internet debate or the like. Isn’t there a controversy over election law violations because the voting observers say that there are many Democratic votes? Will these controversies help mobilize votes, or will it make headwinds?

[이택수]

At the time, YouTube broadcasts were broadcasted by the hosts and PDs of YouTube broadcasts that the progressives mostly watch. Perhaps the representative of the public opinion polling agency who made the remarks thought that the progressives mostly saw it and made a remark, but it seems that it was a wording to lead the rabbit to the polling place when pre-voting as much as possible.

However, I will repeat that, as such parts have continued to appear afterwards due to negative reports, so the inflow of the middle class into the support layer is limited or there is a possibility that it will have an adverse effect.

Since then, hasn’t the people’s power filed a complaint with the National Election Commission? Such a part is likely to be a little counterproductive to the expansion of the middle class, so I think we should look at it like this.

[앵커]

I think we must see how these controversies affected the votes the day after tomorrow. On the other hand, wasn’t yesterday the holiday before the last vote?

As a result, both the opposition and the opposition candidates made an all-out campaign. If you look at the movement of the two candidates yesterday, I wonder if we can see the final strategy. How can I analyze it?

[이택수]

When looking at the areas I went to, candidates Park Young-sun was Nowon and Dobong, and Oh Se-hoon was Songpa and Seocho. Nowon and Dobong are areas where the Democratic Party was strong during the past general elections, which can be said to be the rabbits of the party.

Songpa and Seocho, where Candidate Se-Hoon Oh attended, were areas where the people’s power was relatively strong, but the pre-voting was for those who couldn’t vote for the main vote, or voted as a very active and highly involved group in politics. Therefore, it seems that it was such a strategy that the candidates or those in the camp exposed as much as possible to those people and made a lot of pre-voting.

After having a TV debate in the afternoon today, there is not much time left, so the vulnerable district will be able to do it. Candidate Se-hoon Oh will probably do a lot in that way.

Candidate Park Young-sun first expands the base from the rabbit group. Because there are many people who are currently passive candidate Park Young-sun’s supporters whether to vote or not, or whether to respond to the polls themselves. This is because in the past elections, supporters of the 13 candidates tend to respond less to votes as well as polls.

So, for the first time, in the case of candidate Park Young-seon, it seems likely that he or she would go to every corner of the rabbit class, which was strong in the Democratic Party.

[앵커]

There are no policy pledges in Seoul or Busan, and elections in the form of negative war are in progress. In the case of Seoul right now, the son of an ecological bath house surrounding the Naegok-dong land is the core of the controversy.

It is said that the press conference was announced this morning and then canceled. What effect will the ecological bathhouse crisis have in relation to the Naegok-dong land?

[이택수]

So far, it hasn’t had a big impact. When I asked about the main issues of the Seoul Mayor’s election when conducting a public opinion poll, the land in Naegok-dong was listed in the lower part.

Voters picked this issue as less than 10%, but it seems that the issue has not changed until now. Because according to the polls released until the end, there was no big fluctuation in approval ratings even though there were continued attacks on Naegok-dong.

In addition, since it was not an election poll after that, the positive evaluation of President Moon Jae-in’s evaluation of the performance of state affairs was announced last Friday by Gallup Korea, but it did not rise and declined slightly to 32%.

So, looking at that part, the negatives related to Naegok-dong did not have a big impact on the polls. I think it may have some effect on the votes of the vote.

What this means is that the active supporters of the Oh Se-hoon supporters will somehow vote, but the passive supporters may be wondering whether to vote because of the negative.

In addition, negatives are always the way the thirteen candidates do so because there is a possibility that their son does a media interview, or if the mother or family member actively presents something and does not vote.

So, it’s a strategy that makes the other candidates less likely to go to the elections and polls than the party’s supporters, so it’s probably being done at that level, but it hasn’t had a big impact so far.

[앵커]

Anyway, the Democratic Party continues to say that Candidate Se-Hoon Oh is lying, and Candidate Se-Hoon Oh is saying that, but it is said to be a lie frame. What is this There was a lot of controversy over this, but it became fuzzy. How should this be interpreted?

[이택수]

If I thought that there was something decisive about a material decision, I think it probably didn’t come out at the time of pre-voting. First of all, it is reported that there was no rapport with candidate Park Young-sun.

It seems that not only the rabbit floor but also the swing boaters are starting to look a little skeptical. Of course, I’ll know only when the announcement of the material decision is made. First of all, it is reported that there is a possibility that Park Young-seon may resign until now. These parts are actually very bad news for Park Young-seon.

I thought this would be something that the other candidate would resign, but the report now reports the possibility of Park Young-sun’s resignation. So it was a little counterproductive. Of course, I will only know what the material decision is to be announced. I think it was a little counterproductive to the Democratic Party’s perspective until now.

[앵커]

Although elections are mainly focused on negatives, looking at the pledge, the youth pledge targeting 2030 is a little noticeable. Can you compare the difference in commitment between the two candidates?

[이택수]

In the case of Candidate Young-sun Park, there was a promise of 50 million won interest-free loan for startup funds. In addition, monthly rent support is expanded from the current one. Additional supply of 20,000 youth housing units, 40% discount on youth bus and subway fares. There was a promise like this.

In the case of Candidate Se-hoon Oh, the monthly rent support is expanded to 50,000. Establishment of youth employment academy, providing live lectures on employment and start-ups. I made these promises.

Looking at the results of the last poll by age group, candidate Oh Se-hoon is leading by a 15 percentage point gap in those in their 30s and 50s.

Then, if you are in your 20s, there is a 20% point gap similar to that of the whole. The swingboat age I mentioned earlier was not in my 40s, but in my 20s, and now I am in my 40s.

Originally, the Democratic Party’s strongest age group, in their 40s, got to a tighter level. If you’re in your 20s, the gap is bigger than in your 30s or 40s. So, for these classes, candidate Park Young-seon also made some aggressive pledges in the form of being pushed back a little. From the standpoint of Candidate Se-Hoon Oh, it is populism, and he makes these arguments.

First of all, these parts, where votes in their twenties and thirties are fluctuating, have not been detected, and the presidential approval ratings haven’t been mentioned earlier?

During the current blackout period, no opinion polls have been announced. So, if you look at the past elections, about 5% of the hidden 13 candidate votes and Park Young-seon’s votes are clearly hidden. Could it be expanded to 10% points, revealing the hidden mark?

This is one of the negative election strategies for today and tomorrow’s TV debate and during the remaining period to see how much these parts, especially in their 20s and 30s. I think the decision will depend on how much it will persuade the voters.

[앵커]

Okay. We looked at the candidates for the mayor of Seoul, but this time we will go to Busan. The pre-voting rate for the Busan mayoral election was 18.65%. However, as the ballots you signed up for now are being released online, this is also quite controversial.

[이택수]

That’s right. The paper signed by Candidate Hyung-Jun Park has been released. Candidate Hyung-Jun Park is already ahead of Seoul by nearly 20 percentage points. Because of some voters, Hyung-jun Park is bound to be embarrassed at the camp.

It is unlikely that this will have a major impact on the overall public opinion landscape. It looks like a little bit of an episode or incident. However, even if this was a signifier to candidate Kim Young-chun on the contrary, it doesn’t seem to have a big impact.

Anyway, the gap between such incidents and accidents is that large, but it is said that the support base is nervous as much as the hidden votes appear until the last minute and may end in a bitter ice. That’s why there seem to be incidents related to unreasonable ballots.

[앵커]

Like Seoul, Busan has a very intense negative offensive. For Candidate Hyung-Jun Park, starting with the L-City suspicion, I even came up with suspicion of preferential art work. These negatives. After all, how much influence and persuasion will you have in stimulating the public sentiment of Busan in Busan?

[이택수]

So far, it hasn’t had a big impact. In fact, this election continued to be led to a question of composition rather than an individual candidate’s pledge or morality. For example, if the nature of this election is the ruling party’s judge or the opposition party’s judge, it is said to be a ruling party judge at roughly 5:3.

In addition, President Moon Jae-in’s positive and negative evaluation is about 5:3 or 6:3, and the negative evaluation is high. That’s precisely because the candidates for the People’s Power are ahead of the Democratic Party candidates. Even if we continue to attack the morality of individual candidates, there has been no significant change in the current indicators.

So, in fact, shouldn’t we have campaigned on a different level? These opinions seem to be coming out inside the Democratic Party. Until now, the issues raised by the Democratic Party have not emerged as a major issue like the other issues in Seoul mentioned earlier.

In the beginning, Gadeokdo emerged as a very important issue, but a recent public opinion poll shows it is the fifth of all issues? So, in the end, real estate and LH are very subordinated, so in the end, the morality of individual candidates enough to shake the board because these parts shook the board. This is a problem that can be solved by the judiciary after the election. , After looking at these parts, the composition, and deciding the headline, I think this situation has not changed much so far.

[앵커]

The pre-voting in both Seoul and Busan is now finished. Then, the pre-voting rate showed a very high interest. Will that interest affect the future direct voting and the actual voting day? How do you view it?

[이택수]

This time, the pre-voting is the highest in all-time re-election pre-voting rates. It was 20.54% compared to 19.04% in March 2019, so it was about 1 percentage point higher than then.

In Seoul, 21.95% came out, but in the case of the 2020 general election, the pre-voting rate was 40.3% compared to the main vote. So, the figure multiplied by 1.5 times the pre-voting resulted in the final turnout of the main vote.

However, in the 2018 local election, the pre-voting rate was 33.5% compared to the main vote, and multiplying the pre-voting by 2 gave the final turnout.

In that sense, 54% is expected in 2020. As of 2018, it is expected to be 60%.
Then it seems to be between 54 and 60%. Anyway, it’s very high.

A very high turnout is expected, but if it is about 55%, the pre-voting is high and the main vote is now high, so it means that most of the people who responded to the public opinion polls voted. Since power is advanced, then, is it still a favorable market for the power of the people?

By the way, in the 2019 re-election in Changwon, the future united party candidate, who was an inferior candidate at the time, turned over the inferiority by 12 percentage points and stuck tightly. So, there is room for the thirteen candidates to catch up with 10-15% points.

But now that the gap has reached up to 20%, is it possible to reverse? It seems that there are more poll experts who are skeptical about these areas.

[앵커]

Anyway, the main voting is because this is a weekday. So, even if you made predictions based on historical data, wouldn’t this vote actually show that high participation rate as in the past?

[이택수]

That’s right. In the case of 2018, as I mentioned earlier, I said that I need to double it, but in 2020 it is 1.5 times. So anyway, the 2020 general election was the pre-voted by those who were going to vote.

So, shifting defenders in professional baseball is called shift, but because it could be some sort of turnout like shift, the voter turnout may appear smaller than expected in this main vote.

So, it can be just over 50%. The rough estimate is expected to be around the mid-50%.

[앵커]

First of all, you are predicting that it will pass 50%. Okay.

[앵커]

So far, I’ve been talking with Lee Taek-soo, CEO of Real Meter. I heard it well.

[이택수]

Thank you.