[재보선 D-3] The last-minute showdown between the parties… Will the final turnout be the highest?

With the pre-voting rate for the 4·7 re-election at an all-time high, attention is focused on whether the final turnout rate combined with the main vote will set a new record.

According to the Central Election Commission on the 4th, the turnout for pre-voting held on the last 2-3 days was 20.54%.

Considering that the most recent re-election of April 3 in 2019 was 14.37% in advance and 48.0% in overall vote, this is a very high number.

As the pre-voting rate is higher than expected, there is also a forecast that the final turnout for this re-election will be at the level of the 2018 local elections (60.2%).

This high turnout is analyzed because the Korean Land and Housing Corporation (LH) incident ignited the judgment theory, and also the sentiment of checks by the supporters of the passport against unilateral distraction.

Lee Kang-yoon, head of the Korea Social Opinion Research Institute, said, “Amid the situation where the government judgment theory prevailed in the wake of the LH incident, supporters of passports are also appearing at the polling place to express their disappointment with the unilateral trend of public opinion polls and Candidate Se-hoon Oh’s’change of words’. “They analyzed the reason for the high turnout, saying, “The situation is desperate for both.

If this trend continues until the day of the main vote, there is a possibility that the final turnout will also hit the highest.

The re-election, which recorded the highest turnout in history, was 61.4% of the re-election held on October 29, 2014.

However, since this election was a’mini-election’ with 247 electors, it is difficult to compare it simply with this election, which elects the mayors of Seoul and Busan.

A survey of 806 people over the age of 18 residing in Seoul on the 30th to 31st of last month, just before the public opinion poll was banned by Real Meter commissioned by Newsis. Note) As a result, 95.2% of respondents said they would vote in this election. Among them, 84.0% of respondents said that they will vote by all means.

3.7% of respondents said they would not vote.

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