[재보선 D-3] Poll experts “So far, it is advantageous to Oh Se-hoon…”

Who will be the final winner of the Seoul Mayor’s by-election in the next three days?

On the 4th, after two days of pre-voting, Yonhap News interviewed four poll experts, and they agreed that “the winner cannot be determined by the pre-voting rate alone.”

Overall, it was interpreted that candidate Oh Se-hoon, the power of the people, is advantageous when considering the topography of public opinion polls that are counted outside the current margin of error.

However, there is a possibility that the’Shy Progress’, which felt a sense of crisis, will unite for the remaining three days, and an analysis that their movement will be the final variable has also come out.

◇ Real meter “It is impossible to judge whether it is good or bad based on prior turnout”

Bae Cheol-ho, a real meter expert, said, “With the preliminary turnout that does not know which class has voted, it is impossible to prematurely diagnose the defect.

After pre-voting, detailed analysis of the voters participating in the voting is not provided.

For this reason, it is an explanation that it is a hypothesis and meaningless to consider the pre-voting number itself.

He emphasized that “the three days after the pre-voting are blackout, literally, the’darkening period’.”

◇ R&Search “The early 20% pre-voting rate is’ambiguous’…it will not be possible to reverse the market trend”

However, Kim Mi-hyun, director of R&Search thought, “It is unlikely that the market will be overturned.”

Director Kim heard a pre-voting rate that was only in the early 20% on this basis.

He explained, “If the voter’s vote exceeds 25% in the pre-voting, which is highly likely to be voted by the passport support group, it can be considered a’total gathering’, but the figure at the beginning of 20% is somewhat ambiguous,” he explained.

◇ Insight K “It is important whether the final turnout exceeds 50%”

Bae Jong-chan, director of Insight K, agrees that it is also a favorable camp for the opposition, but for an accurate analysis, the final turnout should be weighed.

Director Bae said, “It is expected that more supporters of the people’s power will appear in the main vote on the 7th.” “I looked out.

◇ Korea Institute of Social Opinion “The final variable of gathering’Shhai Jinbo’ angry at Naegok-dong”

Meanwhile, Lee Kang-yoon, head of the Korea Social Opinion Research Institute, predicted that the criticism of Candidate Oh’s’honesty’ that the Democratic Party intensively raises could become a critical variable at the last minute and shake the plate in favor of the opposition.

“I won’t change the opinions of the innocent class, whose honesty issues are focused on the opposition, but it can provide an incentive to attract traditional passport supporters, that is,’Shai Progress. It will be a breakthrough,” he pointed out.

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