[장태민의 채권포커스] An uneasy look at Korean goods strengthened by the stock price plunge

[한국금융신문 장태민 기자]

The KOSPI index fell more than 100p during the intraday on the 29th, breaking below the 3,000 line.

The dollar/won soared more than 15 won the day before, and then started on a downtrend this day, but rose above the previous day’s closing price to 1,200 won.

Although the bond market has recognized a favorable stock price correction, there is also a potential doubt that something will change in the overall Korean product.

■ The stock index plummeted for 4 consecutive days in net purchase of KOSPI over 1 trillion won per day

The stock market started sharply in 2021 and then plummeted in the last week of January.

In particular, the index is missing in a situation where individual investors live without hesitation.

On January 26, individual investors recorded net purchases of 4.25 trillion won, the second largest ever. Individuals are net buying more than 1 trillion won per day for 4 consecutive days including this day.

On the other hand, institutions and foreigners are transferring stocks to individuals through profit-taking.

Shinhan Investment Corp.’s domestic stock team said, “Amidst the expansion of volatility centered on the Game Stop (GME), the US stock index has rebounded after the adjustment this week.” It is becoming.”

Shin Kumtu evaluated that “the influence of profit realization and portfolio weight adjustment continues”.

■ The dollar/won showed a rebound due to the surge in the previous day, but then rising pressure on risk-off

The dollar/won exchange rate recorded a surge of over 15 won the day before, then lowered the level while holding a breath and rebounded while watching the stock price plunge.

On the previous day, the won in the foreign exchange market fell sharply due to disappointment in the FOMC policy statement, a strong global dollar, and a plunge in the stock market.

The dollar/won exchange rate rose 15.20 won on the 28th to 1,119.60 won, showing that it has risen above the 1,115 won level for the first time since November 19 (1,115.63 won) last year.

The dollar/won also declined as the exchange rate surged the previous day, raising excessive awareness, and the stock price at the beginning of the market attempted to rebound to reflect the US market situation. .

The dollar/won has repeatedly fluctuated as demand for reverse remittances related to net selling of foreign stocks and monthly negotiations crossed, but the risk-off atmosphere increased and exceeded the 1,200 won level.

Shinhan Financial Investment Research Institute Kim Chan-hee said, “In the short term, we will show an upward advantage in the dollar/won exchange rate and resume the decline by the end of the first quarter.” Is highly likely to slow down.”

“The first quarter is traditionally a seasonal export season after the shopping season in developed countries.”

■ Gamestop presents anxiety in Asian stock markets

In the midst of overheating controversy in the domestic and overseas stock markets, the stock markets in Korea and the US both showed a lot of shaking.

In the US stock market, as in Korea, the stock heat of individual investors caused volatility in the market.

In particular, the surge in stock option trading has attracted great attention recently. Individuals’ investments were directed toward more risky.

As a result, Robin Hood, a free stock app, and interactive brokers severely restricted trading of stocks and options in some stocks, such as Gamestop.

On the 28th, Robin Hood said, “In consideration of recent volatility, we are blocking new purchases of Gamestop and AMC, while raising the margin of some securities.” did.

Recently, short selling by institutions and buying by individuals over the recent game stop have raised volatility in the stock market. In this situation, the announcement of Lobby Hood and others on the 28th served as a catalyst for a rebound in the stock index. Gamestop’s stock price recently surged 20 times compared to the end of last year, but on the 28th it plunged 44.29%. On the 28th, the stock index rebounded sharply as hedge funds, which suffered heavy losses from short selling along with the plunge in Gamestop stock prices, escaped margin call pressure.
But the situation wasn’t over.

The supply and demand in the US stock market is confusing, as the stock price of GameStop surges again in overtime trading. Issues related to game stop are also affecting Asian stock prices. Once again, a fight between individuals and institutions in the US market over GameStop is ready.

On the same day, the KOSPI index declined and expanded by nearly 3% due to the dilute effect of optimism related to the NovaVax vaccine, as well as the influence of the US stock trading platform Robin Hood’s announcement that it will resume buying transactions for gamestops. As the US stock index futures decline in the Asian market, the domestic stock market is also under pressure.

■ Bonds that are not significantly strong despite a sharp decline in stock prices

The position of bonds, a safe asset, is not stable amid the recent overheating of domestic and overseas stocks. The range is fluctuating considering potential supply and demand anxiety factors caused by the government’s strengthening fiscal policy.

In addition, although some of the bond markets appear favorable for a sharp decline in stock prices, there are concerns that risk-offs will spread across Korean products.

A dealer in a securities company said, “Despite the recent bad supply and demand, the bond market showed relatively calm fluctuations compared to the stocks and foreign exchange market movements.” He diagnosed.

“With the potential supply and demand burden and level merit, the room in which the domestic bond market can move is limited.”
The KOSPI index has surpassed 3,200 in a short period of time this year and has plummeted below the 3,000 line now.

The final bid rate for 3-year national treasury bills slightly exceeded 1% for two days on the 25th and 26th, and then came back to the familiar range of 0.9%. The 10-year national treasury has fluctuated in the mid-to-late 1.7% range, showing a more alert than short-term.

Reporter Chang Tae-min [email protected]