[이코노미스트] The conclusion of the things you want to know by Wonkyung Cho (24) The future of Apple cars and autonomous vehicles

Collaboration with Hyundai Motor Company and Apple to increase brand value and secure market share for autonomous vehicles

Korea makes 8 million vehicles per year. 4 million are made overseas and 4 million are made domestically. Of the 4 million domestically produced, 3 million are sold for export and 1 million are sold domestically. Will this structure continue? With rumors that Apple is cooperating with the Hyundai Motor Group, I wonder if the employment size is already decreasing. The Georgia plant of Kia Motors is the major production base of Hyundai Motor Group, which makes 400,000 vehicles per year. In terms of its location in the southeastern part of the United States, it can cover large-scale markets from North America and Central and South America. This is why Apple, which proposed cooperation with Hyundai Motor Group, mentioned the Georgia plant as one of the candidates. Even if the Hyundai Motor Group is confirmed to be a joint venture with Apple, it is difficult to insist on Korean production. This is because there are many variables, such as the union problem.

Traditional companies are increasingly aware of competition and cooperation with IT companies. Consider whether Google is a search engine company or a manufacturing company that makes driverless cars. Many companies have followed too traditional industry standards and are out of date. These companies have something in common. Insensitive to brand innovation. The only way to live is where their management has stepped in. I don’t see the future. Businesses should not settle down in the past. Companies prosper only when they give way to people who give opinions on new fields. Whether the relationship between technology and traditional industries eats and eats, or whether it is a win-win partnership, is a matter for the management of the company.

In any case, companies must first be aware of such ecosystem changes. Global tech companies have always been driving innovation in change. When it comes to the automobile industry, the era of referring only to physical devices called automobiles has passed. As a means of transportation, no one knows what revolutionary changes will be brought about by fusion of modern IT technology. The reason why Google is interested in self-driving cars equipped with artificial intelligence is an old story. Every year, people around the world were worried about people dying in traffic accidents, so the plans to pay attention to driverless cars moved people’s hearts. Google thinks of driverless cars as innovations in human leaps, not as cars. Someone may think of a driverless car, lamenting the fate of humans who drive in a congested situation. Who would like the traffic hell of repeated rush hours? Some people are asked to imagine how many hundred Egyptian pyramids could be built with the money spent on commuting in the United States. That makes sense when you consider the time, energy, and opportunity cost of human labor wasted in traffic jams. So one could say this.

“We have to pierce a blood vessel in a blocked city. Blood flows through the blood vessels in our bodies, but why is the city so clogged up? There are 60,000 miles of blood vessels in our body. It is 2.5 times the circumference of the Earth. Our blood vessels aren’t just under the skin. It flows through the body. It flows through a three-dimensional space. For transportation, the underground and the sky are also used, but the ground is the most used. So, it is not an exaggeration to use a two-dimensional space. You can also think of creating a three-dimensional network of transportation like blood vessels. Flying in the sky or building a smart city or something. But a more fundamental problem is inventing the driverless car. If you have a driverless car with artificial intelligence, you may not need traffic lights, speed limit issues, or lanes. The transportation network is connected by an intelligent network and you just need to pass the road. Immerse yourself in meditation while listening to music on an unobstructed road.”

An autonomous vehicle refers to a vehicle that goes to a destination on its own even if the driver does not operate the steering wheel, accelerator pedal, or brake. It is a system that can detect road conditions, detect various dangerous situations, and operate autonomously. There is a technology that comes to mind when it comes to self-driving cars. It is a driverless car technology. This is a concept included in self-driving car technology, and it is the last step.

To realize an autonomous vehicle, various technologies are required. Representatively, highway driving support technology that automatically maintains the distance between cars, lane departure warning system technology, lane maintenance support system technology, rear side warning system technology, advanced smart cruise control technology, and automatic emergency braking system technology are required. With these technologies, various sensors attached to the vehicle detect nearby obstacles and collect the information. After that, it goes through several process processes through the central processing unit, and after making a decision, the vehicle is controlled and driven. In order for an autonomous vehicle to leave the factory and drive officially on the street, several stages of testing and adjustment are required. As well as road driving tests, the performance of sensors, software, and cameras must be continuously upgraded so that they can properly cope with various situations. In the standard classification made by the American Society of Automotive Engineers, it is divided into 0-5 levels, but only 3, 4, and 5 levels are specified in Korean law. Stage 3 is a partially autonomous driving system, Stage 4 is a conditional fully autonomous driving system, and Stage 5 is a fully autonomous driving system.

Let’s take a look at each of the five American-style autonomous driving. In the first stage, the driver controls safety-sensitive functions such as brakes, speed control, and steering, but the vehicle has functions to assist with lane departure prevention or parking. In simple terms, think of it as a step where you can take your feet off and control the cruise in some cases. In the second step, the vehicle recognizes the vehicle, provides automatic steering, and maintains a distance from the vehicle in front of the vehicle. Until stage 2, the driver must control the steering wheel and pedals and take responsibility for safety. Stages 1 and 2 have been applied to a large part of the currently released cars. It seems that step 2 can be thought of as a step where you can take your hands off in some cases. Stage 3 is a limited autonomous driving stage, where the car controls all safety functions and monitors traffic in a specific traffic environment, and sends signals when occupant control is required. In fact, it can be seen that autonomous driving starts from step 3. Step 3 can be viewed as a step where you can take your eyes off in some cases. Step 4 is fully autonomous driving, and the occupants only need to enter the purpose. Step 4 can be viewed as the step of removing the brain. Stage 5 is a self-driving car that moves by itself without a person riding it.

The key to the development of autonomous vehicles for zero traffic accidents is the development of active safety technology. Automakers that have researched and analyzed types of traffic accidents focus on the fact that traffic accidents due to negligence in driving account for more than 90%. Even if the driver is unable to cope with an emergency situation due to carelessness, an emphasis has been placed on developing a state-of-the-art driver assistance system that prevents the car from colliding with pedestrians or other vehicles. As a result, the Advanced Driver Assistance System (ADAS) emerged. ADAS is based on a camera that accurately recognizes dangerous situations around the vehicle, multi-purpose sensors, and computer network algorithm technology that accurately analyzes emergency situations. If the stereo camera mounted on the windshield of the car, the camera mounted on the side mirror, the ultrasonic sensors mounted on the front and rear bumpers, and the long and short range radar accurately recognize the movement of objects and identify that the vehicle computer network is in an emergency, safety is ensured. It prevents traffic accidents by giving a caution warning to a dangerous driver or by emergency braking the car itself. All cameras and sensors are intertwined and intertwined like a spider web, exchanging and analyzing a lot of information, and actively responding to dangerous situations.

After all, the key to ADAS is to fuse all the sensors together. This is a sophisticated safety device that first predicts situations that the driver cannot predict. ADAS technology is evolving with advances in the precision of cameras, sensors and controls, that is, mechanical performance. Looking at the technology to which ADAS is applied, not only the car itself drives while maintaining the distance and lane of the vehicle in front, but the camera reads and recognizes the traffic sign to reduce the speed to the regulated speed, or interlocks with the navigation map to speed before entering an intersection or corner. Lower the Based on the cloud server, it can be advanced enough to recognize and prepare for dangers in the navigation path in advance. This technology that prevents accidents by communicating potential hazards to drivers in advance is developed in connection with connected car technology that enables data communication between all cars in the future, and even collisions that occur at intersections or alley corners where other vehicles are not visible. Will make it disappear.

No matter how advanced the technology is, traffic accidents are likely to occur at any time. If driverless vehicles become common, who will be legally responsible for the accident? Let’s look at the criminal law issue.

There is a legal system that can be punished as a’hit and run’ if a person causes a driving accident and leaves the site without taking appropriate measures. However, it is realistically difficult to punish if a car that has not been on board continues to drive after an accident. When a person has an accident, he or she can argue for’fault’ or’intentional’, but they cannot judge these requirements against machines. Let’s say that Google’s driverless car accidentally accidentally accidentally caused itself during a test run. There was no damage to human life, but various debates over the incident occurred. In the current legal system, the person sitting in the driver’s seat must be held accountable anyway. This is because even if a car runs on the road with an autonomous driving system, the legal driver is still human. Insurance payments are also applied on the same basis.

However, there is a possibility that manufacturers will be responsible for future technological changes. Product liability issues may arise. But it’s not that simple. The reality is that it is difficult to prove a mistake as long as the company has most of the important information. According to the actual case of sudden vehicle accident, there were several lawsuits against an automobile company, but there were many cases of losing because they could not prove product defects.

The’discovery system’, which the Supreme Court is promoting in relation to the issue of proof, also attracted attention. Discovery refers to the ability to first investigate evidence that can be used as trial data before litigation. The purpose of this is to ensure the right to secure evidence of individual plaintiffs when filing a lawsuit for damages against medical institutions, companies, or state institutions. The trial proceeds in earnest from the end of Discovery. This system is being implemented in the U.S. and U.K. to overcome an unfair structure in terms of’information accessibility’ because individuals cannot secure evidence against large corporations.

When this system is introduced, various corporate data can be submitted to the court upon order of the court. This makes it easier to prove product defects. In any case, various discussions on responsibility and compensation issues are expected. Depending on the situation, the artificial intelligence system of a driverless vehicle can be interpreted as a driver. In order to recognize an AI computer as a driver, other drivers must be able to fully understand the ability to cope with various situations and crises. This may be a more difficult process than technology development. It is necessary to ensure that the mixed vehicles of each type and section of the road drive and crossover, maintain the gap with the vehicle in front, change speed, and change lanes safely. To do this, advanced systems such as provision of traffic signs and information that can be recognized by humans and machines, traffic management and operation, and entrance/exit and intersection control must be conducted in parallel. To this end, it is necessary to find an efficient way to establish an information-oriented road based on digital infrastructure, such as a precision map that can secure super connectivity between vehicles and between vehicles and roads, and accurately measure the location of vehicles.

The moral part should also be discussed. Are driverless cars set to sacrifice one to avoid five people ethical? It is the time when research on ethical, legal, and institutional standards and social consensus are needed to keep pace with the development of driverless vehicles. Tools such as washing machines and vacuum cleaners have freed humans from labor. Driverless cars will also free humans from the labor of driving. We will have more freedom.

But freedom always comes with responsibility. In order to enjoy the technology of’self-driving car’, we need to think carefully about what we are responsible for. Currently, self-driving cars are made on the premise that other cars will drive normally, but it may be controversial whether it is technically and legally acceptable to create artificial intelligence in preparation for’anti-rule driving’. For example, it is necessary to discuss whether the current legal system allows driverless vehicles to move in response to interruptions or speeding by other drivers.

Apple’s automobile business plan was first unveiled through the’Titan Project’ in 2014. It was initially known as an electric vehicle project. It started secretly with over 1000 employees, but in 2016, hundreds of employees were laid off due to various internal problems. Apple, which used to make electric vehicles, turned to creating a fully autonomous system. It was argued that the company is trying to enter the automotive field again by acquiring the autonomous driving startup Drive.ai in 2019 and the AI ​​software startup Xnor.ai in 2020.

There was news that Apple is aiming to launch a self-driving electric vehicle in 2024, but it was argued that the so-called Apple car development would be difficult to commercialize until 2028. There are many talks about which business Apple will go into. While it is expected to secure an edge over competitors with the advantages of high maturity and a broad service ecosystem, it is said that if Apple car dominates the autonomous vehicle market, Apple’s sales will surge and the stock price will rise in the long term.

On January 8, there was a report of possible cooperation between Hyundai Motor Company and Apple through the domestic media. On the 11th, practical negotiations between Hyundai Motor Company and Apple were in progress, and the possibility of mass production in 2024 was raised. In response, Hyundai Motor Company and Hyundai Mobis announced that “a number of companies have been asked to cooperate with the autonomous electric vehicle, but there is no set”. Nevertheless, the discussion between Hyundai Motor Company and Apple seems likely to be true. Looking at Hyundai Motor’s share price rise, the market is in an atmosphere of acknowledging the value of cooperation. First of all, it can be considered as reaffirming the possibility of next-generation mobility. The Hyundai Motor Group is an automobile group that is actively proposing and promoting next-generation mobility strategies (eco-friendly vehicles/autonomous driving/UAM, etc.) within global OEMs.

However, it cannot be denied that the market’s doubts about the possibility also persisted. It can be judged that it has been recognized for its business performance and competitiveness based on the possibility of cooperation with global companies including Apple. Next, it is evaluated that it has secured vehicle software competitiveness. Although it continues to secure competitiveness in vehicle hardware including electric vehicles through vertical integration of the value chain, the need for securing software technologies including autonomous driving technology has emerged. Hyundai Motor Company can expect to develop autonomous vehicle and platform technology through cooperation with Apple. Accordingly, Hyundai Motor’s brand value can increase and a significant portion of the market share can be secured. It seems likely that Hyundai Motor Group’s brand value will increase just by sharing the supply chain with Apple, a global tech eater and data company. If the Apple cars made by Hyundai Motors are mass-produced in 2025-27, Hyundai Motors will be able to secure a market share of 100,000-500,000 units.

Wouldn’t the domestic auto industry be forecast to move forward in the direction of choosing autonomous driving software with hardware becoming the strongest? Someone considers Tesla to be overvalued because of the lack of completeness in hardware, but autonomous driving. Since self-driving cars are energy-intensive, innovative technological improvements are required for solutions to energy problems and electric devices including motors and driving devices. It has been a long time since we saw that there is a need for an effort to establish a system for bidirectional information exchange between cars and transportation systems so that self-driving cars can be driven globally, forming a consensus among citizens who can accept self-driving cars, and reforming laws on compensation for damages. .

Now let’s go back to the real problems of Hyundai and Apple cars. Hyundai Motor Group will benefit from the market, but Hyundai Motor Company’s worries continue. As for automakers, the Hyundai Motor Group may fall out of fear that the ecosystem will erode the automobile industry as a tech dinosaur company with huge capital has exercised its monopoly power based on the platform. The industry’s gaze toward the Hyundai Motor Group, which has emerged as a strong partner of’Apple Car’, is mixed. For the Hyundai Motor Group, it is an opportunity to expand its dimensions and reduce costs, but it does not have only advantages.

Since Apple is aiming to take the initiative in self-driving cars in the future, it is possible to emerge as a potential competitor to the Hyundai Motor Group. Hyundai Motor Group is considering supplying an electric vehicle platform’E-GMP’ to several companies including Apple. E-GMP is a platform for electric vehicles developed by Hyundai Motor Group and is scheduled to be officially released this year.

Hyundai Motor Group was one of the few companies whose platform sharing was not known. If the picture that provides a platform for the’Apple Car’ is realized, it is a breathtaking for Hyundai Motor Group. The loss is as big as the benefit. Apple is developing a variety of future vehicle technologies, including artificial intelligence (AI) to be installed in autonomous vehicles, as well as vehicle operating systems (OS), semiconductors, and batteries. To a large extent, the area overlaps with the Hyundai Motor Group. If Apple takes the Hyundai Motor Group’s mass production know-how as a springboard and rises to the top of the finished car brand at once, it means that the Hyundai Motor Group has nurtured its competitors. In particular, driving data is likely to emerge as a sensitive issue in negotiations between the two companies. Various driving data collected by vehicles is an essential material used to develop autonomous driving technology. There is a possibility that the Hyundai Motor Group will share data with Apple and jointly develop future car technology. However, in this case, Hyundai Motor Group’s plan to acquire its own software competitiveness loses momentum as it is actually outsourcing. Until now, the Hyundai Motor Group has kept Apple and Google in check, stating that it plans to install its own vehicle operating system (OS) on all car models. According to a message from an automobile industry official, if it is true that Hyundai Motor Company cooperates with Apple, the key is on what conditions the deal will be made. In some cases, the loss can be greater than the benefit. I would say that it is difficult to say anything right now.

※ I am an international economy expert and currently the vice mayor of economy in Ulsan. He served as the head of the tax division of the OECD Policy Center of Korea, the Office of Foreign Economic Cooperation, and the International Finance Officer. By writing [한 권으로 읽는 디지털 혁명 4.0] [식탁 위의 경제학자들] [명작의 경제] [법정에 선 경제학자들] [나를 사랑하는 시간들] Etc.