[이슈분석] Industry’s’Hydrogen Fighting Battle’… Hyundai Motors “Dreately Invest”

The vision of next-generation eco-friendly cars collides…The new race for supremacy in the future car begins

Volkswagen “Understanding physically… the cost issue is also a stumbling block”

Hyundai Motor Company “Suitable for energy paradigm shift…constantly developing technology”

▲ Volkswagen and Hyundai

[에너지경제신문 여헌우·박성준 기자] ‘Dinosaurs’ in the global automobile market Hyundai Motor Company and Volkswagen are engaged in an over-the-counter battle over the vision of the next-generation eco-friendly hydrogen electric vehicle.

While Hyundai Motor Company is making bold investments in the relevant market, Volkswagen said that’Hydrogen cars have no future’.

There are two main issues facing the two companies: whether hydrogen vehicles can overcome the current technological limits and price barriers.

At the moment, it is an analysis that a new competitive structure over the hegemony of the future car is hidden inside, although it is a clash that is limited to the level of a premonition.

▲Hyundai Motor’s hydrogen electric car Nexo

Issues 1. Where are the limitations of hydrogen vehicle technology development?

The most important point at which Hyundai and Volkswagen’s opinions differ over the future of hydrogen cars is whether or not to overcome technological limitations. The principle of hydrogen cars is to store by-product hydrogen in a vehicle and use it as electricity when a power source is needed.

Unlike general electric vehicles that only need to move electricity from battery to motor to drive, hydrogen vehicles have to go through the steps of hydrogen tank → electrolysis → battery → motor. Until now, there is a problem in that energy loss occurs in this process and the efficiency of parts is deteriorated. Volkswagen argues that even if hydrogen vehicle technology develops while there is an alternative to electric vehicles with regard to the withdrawal of internal combustion locomotives, the competitiveness of Volkswagen will decline.

According to the British Financial Times (FT) on the 15th, the CEO of Herbert Des Volkswagen recently said, “You will not be able to see a car that uses hydrogen.” “It’s optimistic and won’t happen within at least 10 years.”

He cited the reason for this view that “if you look at the physical background, the validity is very low.”

On the other hand, Hyundai Motor Company believes that the use of hydrogen, energy itself, is high and can sufficiently exceed the limit. The company explained that the current hydrogen vehicle technology has achieved remarkable growth compared to when the first mass-production model was released in 2013.

Experts point out that it is necessary to understand the difference between a hydrogen car and an electric car in terms of’energy’ beyond the simple operation principle of a hydrogen car. It is said that it is difficult to explain the technological superiority simply based on the structure of electric vehicles and hydrogen vehicles.

Professor Ho-geun Lee of the Department of Automotive at Daedeok University said, “Electricity put in batteries or energy storage devices (ESS) loses over time, but hydrogen can be stored for up to 18 months without change.” Electric vehicles play a bigger role. Solar power and wind power are often discarded because they cannot get as much energy as they want, but if they are replaced with hydrogen, they can be easily stored.”

▲ An image of a hydrogen electric vehicle charging.

Issue 2. Hydrogen cars that are too expensive
Hyundai to see hydrogen car’light’ vs Volkswagen called’debt’

The fact that hydrogen cars will not have price competitiveness is another part that Hyundai and Volkswagen are confronting. It is argued that hydrogen cars have a complex vehicle design, so the absolute price is higher than that of electric cars, and that an astronomical amount of money is required for the construction of charging stations.

Bund Haid, an analyst at McKinsey, the world’s largest consulting firm, diagnosed, “To expand the size of the hydrogen car industry, the charging infrastructure needs to increase rapidly, but to do this, the number of hydrogen cars needs to be increased.”

The problem is that hydrogen cars are still more expensive than electric cars, and prices will not fall easily. According to FT, in order for the cost curve to fall, automakers must record more than 100,000 units of annual sales without subsidies, but the annual sales of hydrogen vehicles in Europe are only 100 units.

OilPrice.com said, “Fuel cell technology is expensive, and the cost has not fallen as much as the level recorded by battery technology for electric vehicles,” he said. “Therefore, electric vehicles are relatively cheaper.” Keith Malone of the California Hydrogen Fuel Cell Partnership also said, “The hydrogen car market is only in its infancy, and hydrogen cars are not cheap to rent or sell. The key challenge is to expand the charging network.”

In this regard, Hyundai Motors believes that hydrogen cars are so suitable for shifting the energy paradigm that they can sufficiently overcome the cost barrier. Hyundai Motors judges that in order to realize the vision of’carbon neutral’ globally, it has no choice but to use hydrogen energy and generate electricity using natural forces such as solar and wind power. It is clear that the technology of converting hydrogen into electricity and electricity into hydrogen will continue to evolve, which means there is no reason not to develop hydrogen cars.

It is also a point that Hyundai is paying attention to that it is making astronomical investments in the hydrogen economy at the national level, mainly in Asian countries such as Korea, China, and Japan. It is calculated that if a certain level of subsidies flows in to the construction of charging stations, it is easy to lay the groundwork for realizing the’economy of scale’.

In fact, hydrogen cars have the advantage that charging speed is faster than electric cars. Even if the charging station is installed, electric vehicles have to stay for about 15 minutes to 1 hour per vehicle, but hydrogen vehicles can be charged in about 5 minutes.

An industry official said, “It is a scale that can run hundreds of thousands of hydrogen electric vehicles by using only by-product hydrogen, etc., which are generated for free in Korea. Even if hydrogen vehicles create barriers to vehicle prices compared to electric vehicles, there is a possibility to offset this by lowering maintenance costs. “I looked out.

Experts analyze that it is difficult to simply compare the’economy of scale’ between hydrogen and electric vehicles based on the current competitive landscape.

Professor Lee said, “It is true that the electric vehicle market is bigger than hydrogen vehicles, but in that market almost all global automakers as well as startups such as Tesla are aggressively jumping into the market.” “Honda and others are still dominating. Even if the market is smaller, the pie for individual companies can be bigger.”

▲ Hydrogen electric vehicle image

Hyundai vs. Volkswagen, the beginning of the new race for supremacy in future cars

In the market, the paradigm struggle between Hyundai Motor Company and Volkswagen, which has been struggling at the level of a war, is likely to develop into a new competition over future car supremacy. It is expected that while companies that have invested preemptively, such as Hyundai Motors, are eagerly promoting the need for hydrogen cars, while Volkswagen, which has all-in on electric cars, will focus on reducing its value.

It is also read in the same vein that not only Volkswagen but also companies that have participated in the competition for the supremacy of electric vehicles pour out comments similar to those of Volkswagen.

According to FT, CEO Carlos Tabares Stellaantis recently expressed a negative view on hydrogen cars, saying, “The companies that have started developing hydrogen cars are those that are late to enter the electric car market.” Stellaantis is a finished car company that was merged by an Italian-American joint venture Fiat Chrysler (FCA) and a French automobile group PSA in January. Tesla’s CEO Elon Musk also said in 2016 that it was “very stupid” about hydrogen cars.

Volkswagen has announced its ambition to occupy 70% of the European electric vehicle market by 2030 by investing 30 billion euros (about 40 trillion won) in the actual electric vehicle field. In order to reduce costs for this, the company is pushing ahead with a reduction of up to 5,000 employees on the 14th (local time).

FT also reported that “Mercedes-Benz has also been investing in the hydrogen field for decades, but there was no result, so it quietly stopped the last car fuel cell project it was pursuing last year.”

On the other hand, some companies are looking for the vision of hydrogen cars from a similar perspective to Hyundai Motor Company. Renault of France said, “By at least 2030, hydrogen cars will not emerge as a viable option, but if fuel cell technology is activated on a small scale and locally, it will eventually lead to cost savings.”

Meanwhile, according to data from H2 Research, a specialized hydrogen market research institute, Hyundai Motor’s Nexo sales volume last year was 6781 units (domestic 5786 units, overseas 995 units), accounting for 75.1% of the global hydrogen car market.

Some say that China, the world’s major economy, should be paid attention. Considering that China has contributed greatly to the vitalization of the renewable energy and electric vehicle markets, it may someday emerge as the world’s largest hydrogen vehicle market.

Earlier, the Chinese government set a goal of supplying 1 million hydrogen cars by 2030, reduced subsidies for electric vehicles, and extended subsidies for hydrogen vehicles until 2022. The purchase tax (10%) on hydrogen vehicles will be exempted and compensation will also be provided to cities that meet the hydrogen vehicle penetration target.

In this regard, OilPrice.com emphasized, “If China does something, it will be helpful to take a closer look at it.”