[이번주 증시] Volatility market likely to continue… US stimulus measures and interest rates rising

NH Investment & Securities presents 2950~3150 KOSPI
Passing the U.S. economic stimulus package to the House of Representatives is a positive factor
The burden of rising interest rates should be noted

[오피니언뉴스=이수민 기자] In the past week, the domestic stock market showed great volatility.

The KOSPI index, which started one week at the 3114 line on the 22nd, fell below the 3000 line based on the closing price on the 24th. After rebounding by 3.5% on the 25th, it plunged again by 2.8% on the 26th, ending the week at 3012.95, showing a wild jump. The decline rate of the KOSPI index on a weekly basis was 3.04%, and it turned downward again in one week.

Last week, individuals started buying for three consecutive trading days from the 22nd to the 24th. Individuals were struggling to increase the index by net buying 1.3884 billion won during this period. On the other hand, on the 26th, foreigners showed a record-high selling price of 2.81 trillion won. This is the largest in history, exceeding the foreign sales tax on November 20 of last year, exceeding 2,427.8 billion won.

Institutional investors repeatedly bought and sold, and on the 26th, they poured out more than 1 trillion won.

Experts predicted that the stock market will also experience greater volatility this week. As upside and downside factors are mixed, careful investment is cautioned this week.

The basis for predicting that the uptrend will continue is that, as the economic stimulus plan following the novel coronavirus infection (Corona 19) passes through the US House of Representatives, it is only approved by the Senate. The Democratic Party of the United States is planning to speed up the implementation of the stimulus plan before the end of the unemployment benefit benefits paid by March 14.

The domestic COVID-19 vaccine is also expected to lead the share price. The domestic vaccination started using the AstraZeneca vaccine from the 26th. The government plans to vaccinate more than 70% of the population by September and establish collective immunity by November.

On the other hand, the valuation burden on the stock market due to rising US interest rates is analyzed as a factor of decline. The rise in government bond yields is considered a bad factor in the stock market as it reduces the attractiveness of risky assets such as the stock market.

On the 26th (East US time), the 10-year Treasury bond yield exceeded 1.52% at the beginning of the market and then fell to around 1.41%. At the close of the market, the 10-year Treasury bond yield was 1.42%.

Long-term government bond yields continue to rise even after Jerome Powell, chairman of the Federal Reserve (Fed), nailed no rate hike unless employment and inflation hit the Fed targets.

If inflation is strong as a result of the US economic stimulus, it is interpreted that fears that the Fed will eventually reverse it are not subside.

NH Investment & Securities combined this and set the upper band of the KOSPI index from the 2950 line to 3150.

Meanwhile, the domestic stock market will be closed on the 1st. On the 2nd, the government announced an additional budget (additional supplement) including the 4th disaster support fund.

On the same day, the National Statistical Office announces the industrial activity trend for January this year. Industrial activity trend is the most comprehensive companion indicator that can diagnose Korea’s real economy situation.

Last month, the domestic market was weak due to the high intensity of the Corona 19 distance, but there is a forecast that the economic recovery will be detected as the export sector continues to be strong.

On the 4th of this year, the Bank of Korea will unveil the ‘4th quarter of 2020 and annual national income (provisional)’.

Reporter Lee Soo-min[email protected]
Copyright © Opinion News Unauthorized reproduction and redistribution prohibited