[유력 후보 적합도 조사 추이] Park Hyung-jun, the undisputed leader… Lee Eon-ju and Kim Young-chun 2nd place

[유력 후보 적합도 조사 추이] Park Hyung-jun, the undisputed leader… Lee Eon-ju and Kim Young-chun 2nd place

Busan Mayor by-election D-100 Busan Ilbo-YTN Poll

Input: 2020-12-28 19:16:45Revision: 2020-12-28 19:17:40Posted: 2020-12-28 19:23:17 (p. 5)

‘Lecture 1, 2 of 2, 3 medicines’ and’triple bad news’.

This is a comprehensive result of various public opinion polls conducted by major media companies including the Busan Ilbo ahead of the Busan Mayor’s by-election in April next year.

In the survey on the overall suitability of the Busan mayor, Professor Park Hyung-joon of Dong-A University, who is a member of the People’s Power, is sticking to the’No. 1 in immovable’ position, and Kim Young-chun, the secretary-general of the National Assembly, who is scheduled to be reinstated by the Democratic Party, together with former lawmaker Lee Eon-ju, the People’s Power. Busan Mayor Byeon Seong-wan, former lawmaker Jin-bok Lee, and Democratic Party international spokesman Choi Ji-eun remain in the third place. The current ruling forces are suffering from a’triple bad news’ in which the people, public sentiment, and the future, which are the three main battlegrounds of the Busan mayor, are all vulnerable.

Results of the analysis of public opinion surveys of media companies including the original report

Candidate Park maintains stable first place outside the margin of error

2nd place candidate Lee-Kim changes every time

The ruling party, people, public sentiment, future’triple bad news’

Kim Young-chun, more than two times ahead of Byeon Seong-wan

This month, there are three public opinion polling institutions that have conducted a’conformity survey for the overall Busan market’ (refer to the election poll deliberation committee). The commonality of these polls is that Professor Park ranks first in the margins of error. He recorded 18.6% in the OhmyNews Real Meter survey (6-7 days), and then rose sharply to 29.7% in the Prime Economy and isoftbank survey (18-19 days). In this 〈Busan Ilbo〉, YTN, and real meter survey (22-23), it ranked first with 27.4%.

Former lawmaker Lee Eon-ju and secretary-general Kim Young-chun, who are in the second place, fall back and forth. In the OhmyNews survey, former lawmaker Lee (13.6%) slightly outpaced President Kim (12.3%), but in the prime economy survey, President Kim (19.1%) showed much higher approval rate than previous lawmaker (11.5%). Then, in this 〈Busan Ilbo〉 and YTN survey, former lawmaker Lee (13.0%) had a higher approval rating than President Kim (11.2%). The three people Jin-bok Lee, Seong-wan Byeon, and Ji-eun Choi have 4-6% approval ratings.

Prof. Hyung-Jun Park and Young-Chun Kim have a clear advantage in the investigation of the suitability of the opposition parties. In the 〈Busan Ilbo〉·YTN’s fitness survey, Professor Park (31.6%) outperformed Lee (16.8%) by 14.8% points (P), and Lee Jin-bok (6.1%) took third place. did. Professor Park rose 8 percentage points from the 23.6% of Real Meter’s survey on the 6th to 7th, while former lawmakers (15.6%) rose only 1.2 percentage points. Professor Park is also overwhelmingly high in the support of the people’s power.

In the Democratic Party’s fitness survey, President Kim (18.5%) outperformed Byeon (8.3%) more than twice. President Kim also has a high level of support among the Democratic Party supporters.

Accordingly, if the current trend of support continues and the election rules of the Democratic Party (50% of the rights party + 50% of the general public opinion poll) and the people’s power (20% of the party members + 80% of the general public opinion poll) are maintained, Prof. Hyung-Jun Park and Young-Chun Kim It is analyzed that there is a high possibility that the opposition parties will be elected as candidates for the Busan mayor.

It is also confirmed in common in various opinion polls that conditions are being created that are considerably disadvantageous to the current ruling powers. There is no strong’personality’ that can overturn the existing market trend in Busan, and Boul-kyung’s’public sentiment’ is also quite different. In addition, the future of the next presidential election is also unfolding against the current ruling powers.

In this 〈Busan Ilbo〉 and YTN survey, President Moon Jae-in’s approval rating for the Busan area was only 31.8%, and the negative evaluation was 65.0%, more than twice that. The degree of support for political parties in Busan is much lower than that of the people (36.6%) of the Democratic Party (23.0%).

In a survey conducted by YTN Real Meter on the 21st and 24th, President Moon’s support for the state administration was only 29.6%, and negative evaluation was close to 70% (68.2%). In a survey on the support of the Booulkyung party, the power of the people (43.1%) overwhelmed the Democratic Party (21.3%).

In OhmyNews Real Meter’s’Investigation of Preferred Groups for Next Presidential Election Runners’ (21-24), Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-yeol ranked first in Booulkyung with 26.4%, Nak-yeon Lee (16.9%), Democratic Party representative and Jae-myeong Lee (11.6%), Gyeonggi-do The governor lags behind General Yun by around 10%.

Reporter Kwon Ki-taek [email protected]

How did you investigate

This poll was commissioned by the Busan Ilbo and YTN to survey 1028 men and women over the age of 18 who lived in Busan for two days from 22-23 this month by Real Meter.

A parallel survey was conducted with a ratio of 70% of wireless virtual numbers and 30% of wired RDDs, and a phone interview using a structured questionnaire and an automatic response (ARS) were mixed at a 50-50 ratio. The results of the survey were weighted (rim weight) according to the proportion of the population by gender, age, and region based on the statistics on resident registration of the Ministry of Public Administration and Security last month. The response rate was 8.3%. The sample error is ±3.1% points (P) with a 95% confidence level. For other details, please refer to the website of the Central Election Survey Deliberation Committee. Reporter Min Ji-hyung oasis@