[월간중앙] The scenario of Chu Miae-Yun Seok-yeol, which will change the political game

Yoon Seok-yeol, who has been suspended from work, gets passport checks, increasing the likelihood of leading anti-moon solidarity
Choo Mi-ae, who completes prosecution reform, confides on the original crime of’impeachment of Roh Moo-hyun’ and proves leadership in presidency

Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-yeol, who had about seven months in office, was suspended. On December 16, the Prosecutor’s Disciplinary Committee of the Ministry of Justice decided to punish Yoon with a suspension of two months. It is the first time in constitutional history that the prosecutor general received severe punishment. The prosecution and disciplinary committee held a marathon meeting for more than 17 hours starting around 10:30 am on the 15th and past 4 am on the 16th. Jeong Han-joong, acting chairman of the disciplinary committee (Professor of Hankuk University of Foreign Studies Law School) said, “Based on evidence, four of the six charges were recognized and sentencing was decided.” Four people attended the prosecutor’s disciplinary committee, including Deputy Chairman Chung, Deputy Minister of Justice Yong-gu Lee, Anti-corruption Power Department head of Supreme Prosecutors’ Office Shin Seong-sik, and Professor Anjin of Chonnam National University Law School.

Under the Prosecutor’s Disciplinary Act, disciplinary action of more than a reduction in salary is recommended by the Minister of Justice and confirmed when the President reapproves. President Moon Jae-in, who received a disciplinary request from Minister Choo Mi-ae, reapproved the discipline. Prior to this, President Moon said at a state council meeting on the morning of the 15th when the disciplinary committee was held, “the prosecution has been criticized by the public for being a sanctuary that has no way to take responsibility for his own faults, even though he has an omnipresent authority.” Pointed out. When the disciplinary action was confirmed, Minister Chu expressed his appreciation, saying, “I have fulfilled the vocation of the prosecution reform.”

General Yoon protested. On the evening of the 15th, attorney Wan-gyu Lee, the legal representative of President Yoon’s side, said, “I made a lot of effort to get rid of my name, but regardless of our efforts, I think (the conclusion) has already been decided.” In the position announced on the 16th before going to work, President Yoon also said, “Illegal and unreasonable measures to oust the prosecutor general in terms of terms and conditions, with illegal procedures and insubstantial reasons.” President Yoon has announced that he will immediately take legal action if the presidential price falls. When Minister Chu had already excluded him from his duties, he filed a lawsuit for suspension of execution and cancellation, and a constitutional petition for the Prosecutor’s Disciplinary Act and an application for temporary injunction for suspension.

The unprecedented conflict between the Minister of Justice and the Prosecutor General was the biggest event that shook Korean society in 2020. Looking back on the series of trends, traces of Minister Chu’s decision to print President Yun are found everywhere. On January 9, 2020, Minister Chu instructed his policy adviser to “find disciplinary laws and regulations for the proper exercise of command and supervision”, and fired in earnest. After about 10 months of pressure, Minister Chu referred to the disciplinary committee, and the issues presented were largely divided into six.

First of all, meeting with the media company in November 2018 was defined as “inappropriate exchange with the person concerned in the case.” He said that there was a suspicion of illegal inspection of the court by ordering to make a report containing personal information of the court, such as the motherland case, and forward it to the anti-corruption force department. There is also a charge of interfering with the prosecution by instructing Han Dong-hoon to stop the supervision of the Supreme Prosecutors’ Office of the Research Fellow of the Legal Affairs and Training Institute, and to transfer the supervision of the case of former Prime Minister Han Myung-sook to the human rights supervisory office of the Central District Prosecutor’s Office. Attorney Han Dong-hoon leaked information related to the inspection to the outside, and it was said that he interfered with the inspection by refusing to comply with the request for in-person inspection four times. The best part is the point that he did not keep political neutrality. Minister Chu put it as a ground for disciplinary action, saying, “I made a remark that was interpreted as a declaration of political participation in the Supreme Prosecutor’s Office.” It is a logic that it can be interpreted as a declaration of politics since he did not say that he would not be politicized.

Minister Chu said at a briefing on the suspension and disciplinary claims of President Yoon at the Seoul High Prosecutor’s Office on November 24, 2020, “The charges of misconduct by the Prosecutor General confirmed as a result of the Ministry of Justice’s prosecution are very serious and serious.” I was reported to have been shocked beyond words.”

However, the situation that went back afterwards was quite far from the’unspeakable shock’ that Minister Chu received. A week later, the Ministry of Justice’s supervisory committee unanimously decided that the suspension of duties, the referral to the disciplinary committee, and the referral for investigation were all inappropriate. Originally, the Ministry of Justice’s Prosecutors’ Commission was an organization to receive advice when the Ministry of Justice inspects important matters such as the Prosecutor General. However, about a month before the supervisory commission opened, Minister Chu revised the Ministry of Justice’s directive, the Ministry of Justice’s Supervision Regulations, and changed the preliminary advisory provisions of the supervisory commission from mandatory to optional.

Minister Chu’s order to suspend his job also lost its strength as the Seoul Administrative Court accepted the application for temporary injunction to suspend the effect of the order to suspend his job, filed by President Yoon on December 1st. Controversy arose over the formation of the prosecution and disciplinary committee. Deputy Minister Lee Yong-gu, who was appointed as a successor after Deputy Minister of Justice Koki-yeong, who should serve as the chairman’s office on behalf of the prosecutor’s disciplinary committee chairman, voluntarily resigned, and Vice Minister Lee Yong-gu, who was appointed as a successor, was a key suspect in the suspicion of manipulating the evaluation of Wolseong nuclear power plant unit 1, which is being investigated by the prosecution until just before his appointment. He was acting as a defense for the former Minister of Industry. Sim Jae-cheol, the chief of the prosecutor’s office, was designated as an informant in the’Judge’s Inspection’ document, one of the reasons for disciplinary action, and he applied for evasion by himself and fell from the disciplinary committee. Shin Seong-sik, head of the anti-corruption force of the great prosecutor, is involved as a criminal suspect in the so-called “verbion collusion” case between Channel A and prosecutor Han Dong-hoon.

Despite various controversies, the prosecution and disciplinary committee’s deliberation proceeded at the speed of lightning. General Yoon’s request for evasion of members and postponement of the deadline was dismissed one after another. The decision made at the end of the marathon deliberation, which started after rejecting the request of President Yoon for only one day to write the opinion, was in vain in the light of the controversial process over the past year and the “very serious and grave mischief” of Minister Chu. Was.

‘Improper exchanges with media owners’ and violations of the duty to cooperate with the supervision of President Yoon himself were judged to be not at the level of disciplinary action. The reason for the leakage of information related to the investigation of the Channel A case and the reason for interfering with the prosecution in the case of former Prime Minister Han Myung-sook was decided without charges, saying there was insufficient evidence. The disciplinary grounds were deemed to be disciplinary reasons for preparing and distributing the analysis documents of the judiciary in major cases, interfering with the inspection of the Channel A case, interfering with the investigation of the Channel A case, and improper words and actions regarding political neutrality. After the deliberation, Vice Minister of Justice Lee Yong-gu said, “The committee thought and concluded a lot from various aspects and angles. “We did our best.”

In the beginning, there were many prospects of seeing the level of discipline of President Yoon as dismissal. Since the President only has the power to appoint the prosecutor general, reasonable disciplinary procedures are required to dismiss him. Since he has been preparing for the referral to the disciplinary committee for a long time, many see him as a procedure to build a justification for expelling him from his post. However, when he met the ambush of worsening public opinion, the plan was wrong.

As fatigue accumulates due to the prolonged Chu-Yun conflict, negative public opinion has risen in the overall prosecution reforms that the government has put in place. More than a year ago, in October 2019, public opinion in favor of the installation of airlift was 51.4%, ahead of the opposition (41.2%) (requested by Real Meter Research YTN). However, in a survey conducted by the same company on Dec. 14, right after handling the amendment to the airlift, 54.2% of respondents said that the amendment to the airlift was a’wrong thing’, and 39.6% of the respondents said’good work’. In addition, in December, the approval rating of President Moon collapsed at 40%, which was considered “concrete,” and fell to the lowest level after the inauguration of the regime.

A re-elected Democrat, A, explained: “Politically, there is more to lose than to gain by dismissing Yun Suk-yeol forcibly. In the by-election, he could get caught and threatened to re-create the next regime. Even with the level of honesty, you can fully control Yun.”

As Congressman A said, Mr. Yoon is an isolated employee even within the prosecution. The juniors of the Special Forces who shared life and death were scattered in a single job. The so-called’Chu Mi-ae line’ is located in the chief prosecutors’ staff who assists Yun and the main prosecutors’ office in charge of major cases. It ranks first in the presidential candidate preference survey, but it is impossible to seek help from public opinion directly because of its political neutrality obligation. In the end, it is the law and principle that Yoon will rely on, but as shown in the disciplinary process, the procedure and justification can be changed and packaged with the intention of power.

Nevertheless, the government and ruling party’s anxiety is perceived everywhere. First of all, if the court raises the hand of President Yun, the legitimacy of the disciplinary action as well as the purity of the prosecution reform are undermined. Passport’s efforts to make Yoon General Plant General are in vain. This is fatal to the regime. This is because even if 40% of the concrete supporters endure, the election, which is a 51v49 fight, is no different if the public sentiment turns around. It is for this reason that, although cautious, it is for this reason that the Democratic Party is concerned that Chu’s strong drive could be a self-defeating man.

The possibility of Yoon’s political activity also fuels the ruling party’s anxiety. The possibility of Yoon’s participation in politics in the passport is the number one target of caution, so that the reason for disciplinary action is that Yoon has not clearly stated his “political absence”. The reason why the passport suspects he was willing to politicize is not without ground. In fact, at a hearing on candidates for the Prosecutor General in July 2019, Yoon drew a line saying, “I have no politics, and I do not intend to do politics.” A year later, there is a clear difference from the fact that the national government said it was “hard to tell” about whether or not they were politically active.

In the political world, the possibility of President Yoon’s political activities is highly regarded. “It is not Yoon’s voluntary will, but this regime has driven him into a situation where he has no choice but to political.” Rep. Jang Je-won of the People’s Strength said, “I was driven to a path where there was no choice but to do politics,” and another congressman said, “If Yoon does not do politics in the future, he could be seriously injured.” It means that President Yoon’s life and death took place in politics.

“The reason President Moon Jae-in made his politics is not his will to power, but because he could not reject the request of the pro-North Korean forces. Likewise, President Yoon’s opinion that he should judge the regime and protect democracy will be the driving force behind his political will. In other words, it is a form that responds to the call of the times.” The power of the people This is the interpretation of Congressman Jung Jin Han.

However, there are many analyzes that the process will not be smooth even if Yoon decides to politicize. First of all, Yun is mentioned as the target of the 1st investigation of the Ministry of Public Affairs. Considering the appointment procedure, such as the Minister of Public Transport and the Prosecutor of the Airborne Department, the launching date is expected to be around February. According to the politicians, if Yun was held in an honest state until February, and then the Ministry of Public Affairs was launched and made him the first target of investigation, there were a number of things, such as keeping his feet as head of the plant at least until his retirement in July or suspending his duties again. You can gaze.

The way to prevent the possibility of counterattack by fundamentally blocking President Yoon’s run for president is also raising consensus in the passport. Open Democratic Party lawmaker Choi Kang-wook announced that he would propose an amendment to the Prosecutors’ Office Act and the Court Organization Act, which states that incumbent judges and prosecutors must resign one year before the election to run for public office. If the law is revised, President Yoon, whose term ends in July, will not be able to run for the March 2022 presidential election. Democratic Party lawmaker Lee Tan-hee, who was a former judge and resigned 14 months before the 21st general election, said, “The essence of this law is to ensure that there is no distrust of the public that’the judges politicize by trial’ and’the prosecutors politicize by investigation’.” He expressed his consent.

Even in this case, if Yun resigns before March, the challenge to the presidency becomes possible. Even if the term of office is filled, there is a way for Yoon to take on the role of’kingmaker’ by joining as a key member of the Banmun Solidarity instead of running directly. This is a scenario where the power of the people is more welcome. An outsider of the people’s strength said, “Next year’s presidential election cannot have a bigger justification than the regime judgment theory. Even if President Yoon does not necessarily join the people’s strength, if he strengthens conservative reconstruction and anti-moon solidarity, the ripple effect on central public sentiment will be considerable.” There seems to be little disagreement that the power of the’Big Tent’ of the opposition party in which Yoon Seok-yeol, who wears the image of a’martyr persecuted by the government’, will be considerable.

Minister Chu Mi-ae’s income is considerable. The Airborne Law was passed, and the government’s glances were removed. In the long run, he won the title of Minister of Justice, which marked the end of the periodic task of reforming the prosecution, which has been the aspiration of the democratic camp since the Kim Dae-jung administration. Chinyoung of the pro-moon gives meaning as’the motherland laid the foundation stone in Roh Moo-hyun’s dream, and Chu Miae laid the roof’. The main evaluation is that it was God’s choice to have the powerful female warrior’Chudark’ as the Minister of Justice.

By completing the reform of the prosecution, Minister Chu cleansed up the original sin that had participated in the impeachment of former President Roh Moo-hyun. In addition, it has proven strong driving force and breakthrough power that does not face left and right. The support of the pro-moon camp and the image of being a’strong leader’ have a different meaning from the time of the presidential election. At one time, some of the passport claims that the resignation must be accompanied by President Yoon went well. Unlike President Yoon, who is in a position to find a complicated exit strategy, Minister Chu’s exit is a’honorable flower path’, at least for the Democratic Party.

Of course, Yoon Seok-yeol’s theory of responsibility as the party who raised the ransom can hold his back when the political landscape changes in the future. In various opinion polls, the more Minister Chu hits Yoon, the more his approval ratings rose. Conversely, negative public opinion about the government spread. So, there was a saying that I couldn’t laugh about,’Chu Na-ding (Thank you if Chu Mi-ae comes out).

Nevertheless, in the political world, Minister Chu’s challenge to presidency is taken for granted. On November 16, Minister Chu attended the National Assembly Judiciary Committee and asked Jeon Ju-hye, a member of the People’s Power, who asked, “Is there any intention to run for the mayor of Seoul or the presidential election?” “Because I came here with the mission of reforming the prosecution as the Minister of Justice. I don’t have a political position until this is over.” However, as to the course after quitting the ministerial office, “That’s not known, until the prosecution reform is completed.”

Even within the Democratic Party, there is an atmosphere of positively looking at the scenario of Minister Chu’s challenge to presidential power. A re-elected lawmaker in the metropolitan area said, “If Minister Chu emerges aside from the competition in the main election, it is certain that it will be a factor in the success of the contest.” The current structure of the Democratic Party’s presidential power is formed by party leader Nak-yeon Lee and Gyeonggi Governor Lee Jae-myeong. The competitiveness of the candidates mentioned as Jacheontacheon such as Kim Bu-gyeom, Kim Doo-gwan, Lim Jong-seok, and Lee In-young is insignificant. His analysis is that the effect of the convention will be maximized if Minister Chu, who has established a publicly clear image, will maximize.

A policy officer within the Democratic Party of the inscriptions said, “There is a possibility that Choo will be the representative of the family members suffering from drought.” Minister Chu’s hometown is Daegu. Politically, he spent 25 years in Seoul (Gwangjin-gu) for the fifth term. He was recruited by former President Kim Dae-jung and entered the political world. Chin-no’s sediment was also thoroughly brushed this time. His analysis followed. “Minister Chu has the strengths of both CEO Nak-yeon Lee and Governor Lee Jae-myeong. It is a position that can secure scalability, which is one of the two’s weaknesses, and a foundation for support of family members. Even with the image of a strong leader, it is not pushed at all. I have this much spec, but who will refuse to challenge the president.”

Yu Gil-yong, monthly reporter [email protected]