[월간중앙] The power of the people to overtake the ruling party approval ratings

Ahn Cheol-soo’s initial approval rating will eventually be absorbed by the big two parties, it is not a rush to unify.”
From’The Motherland Situation’ to’Chumiae and Yoon Seok-Yeol Conflict’ is a scene that cannot be seen in a normal country

Let’s turn the clock to May 22, about 8 months ago. On that day, the Mirae Integration Party, the predecessor of the people’s strength, confirmed the system of Kim Jong-in (81), the emergency response committee chairman. At that time, the approval rating of the Unified Party was 24.8% (Realmeter survey on May 25). It was the lowest since its inception. On the other hand, even in the midst of the’Yoon Mi-hyang controversy’, the approval ratings of President Moon Jae-in (62.3%) and the Democratic Party (42.5%) were flying high. The Unification Party was pushed to the Democratic Party in all regions except Daegu and Gyeongbuk.

Afterwards, Chairman Kim changed the party’s signboard to’the power of the people’ and opened the door to the middle class. He found the May 18 graveyard in Gwangju and knelt and apologized. Lee Myung-bak and Park Geun-hye apologized for the arrest of two former presidents. It preempted issues such as basic income. By avoiding extreme confrontation with the ruling party and reducing unfavorable feelings, the Moon Jae-in administration absorbed the approval ratings that fell due to a mistake. This means that the strategy was optimized for the power of the people, whose ability to make issues is weak.

In the system of Chairman Kim and Ho-young Joo, the power of the people deliberately avoided the line of extreme confrontation with the ruling party, unlike the former representatives of Hwang Gyo-an and Na Gyeong-won. When compared to boxing, he used the style of an out boxer, not an infighter. I shortened my talk and didn’t go out to the streets. Even when the two former presidents’ pardons were thrown out of the passports that were in crisis due to the decline in approval ratings, Chairman Kim showed a “nae-gong” that went beyond the forefront, saying, “If the president decides, the pardon is over.” After breaking away from the ideological debate like pro-bak versus bibak, female politicians who were imprinted with public welfare policies such as Congressman Yoon Hee-sook and Seocho-gu mayor Cho Eun-hee were spotlighted.

On January 14, 2021, in a Real Meter poll, the approval rating of the people’s power rose to 31.9%, overtaking the Democratic Party (30.7%). The support rate of political parties in Seoul was 34.7%, overtaking the Democratic Party (24.6%). However, Ahn Chul-soo, the representative of the National Assembly Party, is the first candidate to support the next Mayor of Seoul. If the power of the people is defeated by the Democratic Party in the Seoul Mayor’s by-election in April, the first opposition party virtually loses its reason for existence. However, if a single candidate for the opposition party is surrendered to Representative Ahn for a winning composition, the position of the 1st opposition party becomes extremely narrow. In this dilemma, what is the path that Chairman Kim designed? Chairman Kim, who met in the National Assembly’s representative office of the People’s Power on January 12, emphasized the’party’ that the 1st opposition party should walk through with a unique and resolute speech.

On December 15 last year, the public apologized for the guilt of the two former presidents. It was quite noisy, but as a result, the evaluation of’well done’ prevails.

“(President Park Geun-hye was impeached in March 2017), and it was something that had to be done right away. Divided into the advocates and opposition parties for impeachment, they only struggled with each other. Since we didn’t make any effort to stabilize the party, did we not have such a result at the general election in April? To seize new opportunities, we have no choice but to change. You have to figure out what the source of the crisis is. In the process of clearing up the mistakes of the past, I think it gave the public the perception that'(the power of the people) is now moving away from the old form’.”

On August 17, last year, he kneeled and apologized at the National 5·18 Democratic Cemetery in Gwangju.

“In the past, remarks that disparaged the May 18 Democratization Movement came from within the party. The democratization movement recognized by everyone is interpreted in a different direction, so the people are bound to frown. In order to resolve such negative perception, I had to make a fundamental apology.”

Party approval ratings have been rising since Chairman Kim came. However, the approval ratings for presidential election runners and mayor of Seoul have not been able to follow.

“We have not yet come up with a consensus candidate in our party. When the People’s Power Contest begins, the approval ratings of candidates will gradually increase.”

Although the number of candidates is large, it has not reached the approval rating of one candidate Ahn Chul-soo.

“As Candidate Ahn declares his run for the mayor of Seoul, it is as if he must be himself. No one (except Ahn Cheol-soo) said that’Candidate Ahn should be a single candidate for opposition.’ They compete with each other to make candidates. “I am the boss, so will I become a single candidate?”

Influential figures in the party, such as Oh Se-hoon and Jeong Jin-seok, discussed solidarity with Ahn. I heard that Chairman Kim was angry about this.

“Can Candidate Ahn come up with something so great? Who represents this party? He said,’Please, I don’t want you to talk about that.’

Isn’t it because of the desperate urgency that’unless you do not unify, you lose opposition’?

“So, haven’t I talked about it for a long time? After entering our party and holding the contest, or because the people say that the opposition should be unified, shouldn’t it be done after the candidate for our party is decided (until just before candidate registration in early March)? There are only two ways. Anything else is meaningless.”

After meeting with Candidate Ahn on the 6th, he said, “There is no future meeting.” Didn’t find the contact point?

“I said,’There are only two ways. If you decide to do one of the two, please contact me.’

Was there no reaction to Candidate Ahn?

“Yes. We meet only when we make up our minds. Is there any reason I can say more?”

‘If you analyze it in detail, the approval rating of Candidate Ahn Cheol-soo is meaningless,’ he said. What do you mean?

“Even in the past, there are seldom cases where a candidate whose initial approval rating was first a few months before the election is elected. There is no need to talk about the poll ratings when the elections haven’t even started in earnest.”

He said,’It is possible to win even if we go to the three-way composition.’

“can win. If Candidate Ahn says,’I will go to the election even if it is not unified’, there is no way we can stop it. Then, you will go to a three-way structure (Democratic Party candidate, People’s Strength candidate, Ahn Cheol-soo). If that happens, will the people tolerate it?”

During the 1995 Seoul Mayor’s election, the precedent of the 1st opposition candidate Cho Soon’s election in a three-way structure (divided opposition) comes to mind.

“At that time, the polls predicted that candidate Park Chan-jong would be elected. Candidate Ahn Chul-soo is not as high as Park Chan-jong at the time. It is only in the 20% range, and if you analyze the approval rate, the support of our party is also included. There are also Democratic supporters. When the election war takes place in earnest, the voters go to the party they support. Then (candidate Ahn) what is left?”

Democrats may come up with vaccines and disaster subsidies issues ahead of the election.

“I think that temptation won’t work. Voters are not low enough to depend on that aspect. Especially, Seoul voters have a high level of knowledge. There is a high (citizens) perception that the Moon Jae-in administration has had nothing to offer in the past four years.”

There is no need to rush to unify.

“Yes. It is my responsibility to make good candidates for our party. It is also my responsibility to elect that person. There is no need to think about anything else.”

Some predict that Chairman Kim will recruit a new businessperson like Lee Jae-woong, former CEO of Soka, as candidates.

“I have never thought about it like that.”

President Moon Jae-in presented a rosy economic outlook at his New Year’s address on the 11th.

“I think it’s just too optimistic to see the current situation, saying,’I can see the light at the end of the Corona 19 tunnel.’ It is too optimistic to expect that our economy, which is dependent on exports, will recover soon on its own (without the premise of a global economic rebound).”

Recently, Chairman Kim heard that he had handed out a report explaining’public good capitalism’ to first-time lawmakers. What is public good capitalism?

“It is a content that contains how to take American-style capitalism from the thought of US Republican Senator Marco Rubio’s idea that’If the gap between the rich and the poor grows, there will be a structure of conflict, resulting in poor social stability, and capitalism itself can shake.’

What is the difference from the’Corona 19 Profit Sharing System’, which Democratic Party President Lee Nak-yeon recently preached?

“The profit-sharing system that CEO Nak-yeon Lee talks about is that we will give away some of the profits of companies that benefited from the Corona 19 incident and give them to the so-called difficult people. It is important to know how to do it specifically. It doesn’t make sense to just say it.”

In his New Year’s speech, President Moon expressed his first remorse for real estate.

“I have issued a real estate policy twenty-four times, but have never been successful. The people expect that house prices will rise this year as well. So, I have no choice but to admit I was wrong.”

If the transfer tax is cut, the multi-homed sale can come out, so that it can be supplied in the short term.

“(This government) has raised the transfer tax to catch speculation. That’s why it’s a self-contradictory story now (seeing that Deputy Prime Minister Hong Nam-ki might lower the transfer tax). Not only the transfer tax, but also the ownership tax (property tax + comprehensive real estate tax) is a problem. You have to think about how to rationally adjust all of these things to stabilize so-called house prices. The higher the tax, the higher the house price.”

On January 13th, Chairman Kim Bidae held a press conference for real estate normalization measures in the National Assembly. ▷Activation of reconstruction and redevelopment projects ▷Expansion of supply by securing urban housing sites ▷During and abolishing the transfer tax ▷Revision of the official price calculation system ▷Improvement of financial regulations such as DTI (total debt repayment ratio) and LTV (collateral recognition ratio) was the main focus.

With a lot of money released, market liquidity surged. Stocks and coins surged. Household loans continue to increase as they invest in debt. Concerns about this are rising.

“To overcome Corona 19, interest rates were lowered to near zero. Isn’t it a global phenomenon to loosen a lot of money? The same is true of Korea. Human psychology has no choice but to worry that if the currency expands in this way, inflation will come someday. Therefore, the phenomenon of investing in real estate and stocks to protect the value of one’s own assets arises. However, the recent stock boom in Korea poses a high risk to me. Regardless of the real economy, the phenomenon of blindly investing and owed investment by the younger generation took place. Stocks should be monitored very carefully, as there is a risk that if the stocks rise too excessively, they will someday sink into a burst.”

Isn’t it close to an irresistible situation?

“Since (government) has released the money (market participants) there is no other way (asset growth) other than taking credit from banks and investing in stocks. As the economic conditions are not easy, we continue to use monetary easing policies, and these are combined to create a phenomenon.”

In the midst of this, national debt continues to increase.

“Is it because I wanted to increase the national debt? I can’t help it, so I keep going in that direction.”

At the moment when the 3rd disaster subsidy execution has not even started, opinions about preparing to provide the national disaster subsidy are already leaking out of the passport.

“This government has no predictive power. Even when the budget was deliberated in November of last year, the issue of the 3rd disaster subsidy was inevitably addressed as Corona 19 continued. However, I said (at the power of the people),’Since you will have no choice but to pay the 3rd disaster subsidy later, secure a disaster subsidy budget in the field of dealing with this budget. Then, wasn’t it that those who didn’t even care about it at first (government ruling party) decided to do it later and only secured 3 trillion won. That money didn’t work, so I brought in reserves. It is now a matter of survival for self-employed and small business owners whose economic situation has become extremely difficult for a year due to Corona 19. I have no choice but to apply intensively to these people. However, President Moon said in his New Year’s speech that the economy is returning to the situation before Corona 19, and the ruling party is experiencing a contradictory situation when talking about the 4th disaster subsidy (for all citizens).”

Even if additional support is provided, do you think selective payment is more appropriate than full payment?

“Of course. There is no significant change in income for employees of companies with active production, public servants, and bankers. But self-employed and small business owners are not. Even so, the polarization is happening with Corona 19. Disaster subsidies should be provided to those who have suffered a disaster. Is the Korean financial resources abundant enough to apply to those who do not?”

One of the reasons for the recent decline in the Moon government approval rating is quarantine. I thought I was doing well, but it seems that people’s distrust is accumulating in quarantine, vaccine purchase, and economy.

“The biggest flaw for this government is its ability to predict. It’s a bread shop. Experts have warned enough about how long the Corona 19 incident will last. However, they said that they would be okay with only K quarantine. Then I couldn’t get a vaccine.”

Some pointed out that it was a matter of prioritizing the management of approval ratings.

“The people are wise. They have high judgment skills and have excellent access to information. Pfizer and Modena vaccines are effective and are used worldwide, but AstraZeneca is only used in the UK. The people are bound to distrust that they will bring in such a vaccine and inoculate it.”

Regarding the so-called prosecution reform, Chairman Kim criticized’the Democratic Party is ignorant of the separation of powers.’

“This government was launched with an emphasis on justice and fairness. However, from’the Motherland Situation’ to’Chumiae and Yoon Seok-Yeol Conflict’ are scenes that cannot be seen in normal countries. The people know this well. And judges make decisions according to the law and conscience. I think the people are right when they say that they should impeach the judge because they have a ruling they don’t want.”

The Democratic Party advocates’democratic control of elected powers’.

“It’s a compelling sound. The president also leads the country according to the law, not at random. You might think that you can do it completely because you have over 180 seats in the parliament, but there will be nothing but regret.”

Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-yeol was described as a’passporter’.

“Isn’t that a passport person? This is the prosecutor general.”

Won’t Yunn’t do politics in the end?

“I do not know. It’s your own job.”

Until the by-election of the Mayor of Seoul and the Mayor of Busan in April, Chairman Kim will lead the people’s strength. If he wins the election for the mayor of Seoul, the rehabilitation of independent lawmaker Hong Joon-pyo is likely to become even more difficult.

“I am no longer the person in this party after the by-election. It doesn’t matter where this party will go after April.”

Why do you pretend you’re not the one to be?

“Even when I first came as chairman of the party’s extravagant chairman, I thought that if this party, which suffered a tremendous defeat in the general election and was in crisis, became too small, it would hinder the development of democracy in the Republic of Korea, so’creating an environment in which this party can properly hold the next presidential election. And I will quit.’

In the power of the people, it is possible to request that the non-delegation chairperson be held until the 2022 presidential election.

“I don’t think that will happen.”

I know that the first elected lawmakers are friendly to the Kim regime.

“I am so tired.”

Democratic Party lawmaker Yun Gun-young revealed the possibility of North Korean Labor Party general secretary Kim Jong-un visiting Seoul.

“This is a hope. Looking at Kim Jong-un’s recent behavior, will you return to Seoul?”

Why did Congressman Yoon say this?

“As I begged, I asked for a return, but Kim Jong-un said that inter-Korean relations (April 27, 2018) had returned to before the Panmunjom Declaration.”

Chairman Kim has been put into the party on the verge of falling as a relief pitcher and revived. What is the secret?

“I’m not sure what the identity is (to the big two parties in Korea). I just make my own judgments and produce results. In politics, the most important thing is how to accurately read the changes of the people. That is the driving force behind election victory. A political party cannot succeed unless it penetrates the public sentiment.”

Then, what is the spirit of the times at this point?

“New generations hate inequality, injustice, injustice, and undemocratic things the most. I think the next president will have a hard time without a firm conviction in that area.”

Although it has been shown to be advantageous to the opposition right now, the election for the mayor of Seoul is very uncertain.

“Just because I’m leading the people’s power doesn’t mean I’m saying this. Objectively, the Seoul Mayor’s election will have a big impact on how the Moon Jae-in administration has been. Nor is the economic policy successful. Housing policy is a complete failure. Only the tax burden was burdened by the people. No foreign policy was successful either. All of these values ​​of fairness and justice, which they boasted, have passed away. A representative case is Cho Kook, former Minister of Justice. He says he is a socialist and says,’Don’t try to be a dragon, but live as crayfish, crucian carp, or frog.’ If I make such a contradictory voice, will the people accept it?”

After all, is the April by-election a judgment against the Moon government?

“I see it as a referee.”

Will the opposition party even win the 2022 presidential election only by winning the Seoul Mayor’s election?

“Of course. If the power of the people wins the election of the mayor of Seoul, the political landscape will change completely. Do not go in this state. Moreover, the term of office of the President.”

-Written by Kim Young-joon, Monthly Central Reporter [email protected] / Photo Kim Kyung-bin, Monthly Central Reporter [email protected] / Transcript Summary: Choi Hyun-mok, Monthly Central Reporter [email protected]