[오늘의 투자전략] U.S. Treasury interest rates rise…foreigners pay attention

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On the 17th, stock market experts predicted that the fluctuation of the domestic stock market will increase as the interest rate rises in US Treasury bonds. In particular, it was recommended to pay attention to the supply and demand of foreigners.

◇ Il-Koo Kim, Researcher at Hanwha Investment & Securities = Inflation is the biggest risk factor in the future financial market. Once inflation starts, it is highly likely to develop into inflation that is not only one-off, but persists. In the bond market, long-term interest rates are rising as inflation is already reflected in prices.

There is a high possibility of’cost increase inflation’ due to circumstances on the supply side. The recent rise in raw material prices was not due to increased demand, but due to changes in cost and policy. The problem is when consumers resume consumption of services such as eating out and sightseeing through the supply of vaccines. When service consumption temporarily surges after the collective immunity effect, supply and demand imbalances will arise due to the supply cut in the meantime, which can lead to price hikes.

In the 3rd and 4th quarter of this year, rising raw material prices and service prices are expected to lead to a sudden increase in inflation. The Fed has already announced several times that it will tolerate inflation rates of more than 2%. It will not stabilize inflation by accelerating rate hikes. Depending on policy factors, the inflation rate is expected to increase after next year.

◇Sang-young Seo, Researcher at Kiwoom Securities = The previous day, the Korean stock market closed higher as stocks related to semiconductors and coupang continued to change. However, after the spread of inflation pressure, the process of digestion continued and showed a decline. U.S. Treasury yields have risen due to inflationary pressures and are affecting the U.S. stock market. In particular, as the US 10-year Treasury bond rate has risen more than 1.3%, the range of volatility is widening, which is expected to be a burden on the Korean stock market.

It is a burden that profit-taking sales were made mainly by pharmaceuticals, bios, and some technology stocks in the US stock market. Therefore, the process of digestion seems inevitable, mainly for the stocks that have risen so far. In terms of supply and demand, a rise in US Treasury yields can serve as an alternative for foreign investors, thus increasing the likelihood of selling on Korean stock markets. The possibility of spreading concerns is limited as the Fed continues to favor moderate monetary policy. Taking this into account, the direction of the index will be determined according to the foreign supply and demand trend after the Korean stock market starts to decline by around 0.5~1%. Inflation beneficiaries are expected to differentiate between technology stocks.