[아침신문솎아보기] Presidential election D-365, the leading presidential election runners and challenges

The next presidential election remains one year. The morning newspapers on the 9th released a planning article related to the presidential election D-365.

Gyeonggi Gyeonggi Governor Lee Jae-myeong, who ran the first place in the recent presidential race, Lee Nak-yeon, Democratic Party representative who put down the Democratic Party chairperson today (9th), and the opposition leader Yoon Seok-yeol, former prosecutor general, who turned down the post of prosecutor general The most striking report among predicting the scenario is the JoongAng Ilbo report that also predicted the elect.

The JoongAng Ilbo conducted a predictive survey of 10 experts in public opinion polls and political consulting to see who would be the most likely to be elected in the presidential election to be held on March 9th next year. Nine out of 10 experts answered that Governor Lee has the highest probability of winning at the moment, and the other one predicted the likelihood of Governor Lee and Former President Yoon being elected as first place. No expert saw the highest likelihood of being elected by Lee Nak-yeon.

Specifically, out of the 9 people who predicted the Governor as No. 1, four were in the order of’Jae-myeong Lee> Seok-yeol Yoon> Nak-yeon Lee, and’Jae-myeong Lee> Nak-yeon Lee> Seok-yeol Yoon’ for three. The other two answered’Jae-myeong Lee> Seok-yeol Yoon = Nak-yeon Lee’. Currently, experts believe that the possibility of electing former President Yun is higher than that of Lee.

Among the people other than’Big 3′, 8 out of 10 selected Prime Minister Jeong Sye-gyun as a possible elected person. The newspaper reported that five experts selected former lawmaker Yoo Seung-min and the chairman of the Roh Moo-hyun group, and four were appointed by Gyeongnam Governor Kim Gyeong-soo and Jeju Governor Won Hee-ryong. However, experts presupposed that the presidential election remains for one year, and there is still liquidity as there is a heavy political schedule such as the re-election in May and the grand two-party convention.

The Dong-A Ilbo and the Hankook Ilbo examined whether the first place in the previous presidential election a year before the election was the final election. In the previous presidential election, the runner-up who ran first in the approval rating a year ago won the final victory in about half.

Former UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, who ranked first (26%) in the polls on June 7-9, 2016, a year before the last presidential election (19th generation), was unable to participate in the final presidential race. Ahn Cheol-soo, who received 31% in the polls on January 2-6, 2012, a year before the 18th presidential election, fought close to the margin of error with GNP candidate Park Geun-hye, who won 33%. He declared a non-run.

Grand National Party candidate Lee Hoi-chang (31.6%), who was first in the 16th presidential election a year ago, was not elected. In December 2001, a year before the presidential election, New Millennium Democratic Party candidate Roh Moo-hyun, who had an approval rating of only 1.6%, defeated the’popular theory of Lee Hoi-chang’.

On the other hand, there are also presidents who have been elected by maintaining the first place a year ago. Former President Lee Myung-bak, who was elected in the 17th presidential election, maintained the lead by widening the gap a year before the presidential election. Former President Kim Dae-jung, who was elected in the 15th presidential election, outperformed Park Chan-jong, who gained 19.6% of the time, gaining 19.9% ​​support in a public opinion poll in November 1996, a year before the presidential election. Candidate Chan-jong Park declared his final no-run.

The Kyunghyang Shinmun picked up the task of the times a year ahead of the presidential election. It is argued that if the task of the last presidential election was reforms such as redemption of redemption, in the next presidential election,’the right to life, the right to live, and the right to live’ are important due to Corona 19. In particular, it was analyzed that the welfare agenda was not omitted in the previous presidential elections, but the demand for welfare is more intensely erupted in this presidential election due to the corona situation.

Specifically, corona vaccination and the livelihood of self-employed people, the issue of tax increases for the expansion of basic income and welfare, which has emerged as a major presidential agenda, and the problems of housing and job instability, which are evaluated as not being properly resolved by the current government, have also emerged as major issues. Some voices want a strong leader to solve these challenges of the times, the newspaper said.

The Chosun Ilbo was wary of the prediction of the elect, emphasizing the current chaotic atmosphere. In terms of politics, “Woman, Lee Jae-myeong let’s slow down, candidate theory” and “Hey, 尹 anticipation, but the reader’s borders” in two articles, the negative factors for Governor Lee Jae-myeong, who received the highest support in the passport, Yoon Seok-yeol, who ranked first in the opposition. They emphasized concerns about the former president.

The Chosun Ilbo set subtitles such as “Jae-myeong Lee, who gave us the first place” and “Nak-yeon Lee, who stood at the crossroads of resurrection,” and learned that Governor Lee has put a brake on the uptrend due to the appearance of former President Yun, and that relationships with parenthood can also act as a risk. Emerged. In the opposition, while paying attention to the rising trend of former President Yun, he pointed out that it could be a “shining phenomenon,” and pointed out that he is not sure whether he will join the power of the people or go to the third zone.

Meanwhile, two columns were published in the Hankyoreh in the Hankyoreh with the message “Do not go to politics,” for former Prosecutor General Yoon, who is being evaluated as having quit the prosecutor general and has actually taken steps in politics.

In a column entitled, “President Yoon Seok-yeol, do not politicize,” Sung Han-yong, a senior reporter at the Political Department, said, “The current state of former President Yoon may be the heroes of special department prosecutors who threw themselves to defend the prosecution’s own right to investigate, or the prosecution to satisfy his political greed. He may be an unscrupulous man who sold the honor of the entire organization.” He mentioned the background of his politics and why he should not do politics.

Reporter Seong cited the first public opinion poll and the second investigation as the reason why the’political wind’ entered into the former president Yun. He said, “If you open up the polls, even those who are fine will turn your eyes.” “Professor Ahn Cheol-soo, who attended the 2011 youth concert, did this, and former Prime Minister Goh Gun and former UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon. Still, the two men, Go Geon and Ban Ki-moon, came to their senses and returned to their place.”

In addition, he said, “The prosecutor of the Special Ministry is a frame maker.” Explained. He also said, “There is a similarity to a politician who holds an election in that it breaks down the opponent by making a frame.”

Reporter Seong argued that the reason why former President Yun should not be in politics. First, he had no experience in economics and diplomacy, so “I can’t do (President) well.” He also emphasized that “cannot be done”. The recent public opinion poll analyzed that “if you believe it is real, you will surely regret it”, although it is only an anger of the anti-Moon Jae-in propensity voters.

Kim Nam-il, head of the Hankyoreh’s Digital Contents Department, also affirmed in a column titled “dog-like prosecution pediatric disease” that “Former President Yoon should not play politics.” He pointed out that “because the prosecution sergeant Yoon Seok-yeol, who made even the righteous investigations that junior prosecutors will do in the future, start from the default of political investigation and target investigation, is absurd, and prosecutors who try to ignore such a reality as they unite as an organization are strange.” did.

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