[시황] Bitcoin once approached $42,000, Ether pending contracts increased by 85% this year

Daniel Cawrey

CoinDesk 20 Bitcoin Price Index (BPI)
CoinDesk 20 Bitcoin Price Index (BPI)

Bitcoin recorded the reported price again. The price continues to rise as the demand from investors looking for bitcoin with a fixed supply has seldom decreased. Meanwhile, the Ether futures market also recorded unprecedented volume as investors turned to Ether, the second largest cryptocurrency based on market cap.

  • As of 1 p.m. today, bitcoins traded for about $39,813 each. It rose by 3.51% in 24 hours.
  • Bitcoin ran between $37,546 and $40,1962 in 24 hours.
  • Bitcoin traded at a price lower than the 10-hour moving average line and higher than the 50-hour moving average line. From a technical analysis standpoint, this is a sign that there may be no big fluctuations for the time being.
Bitcoin trading chart on Bitstamp from January 5th to the present.  Source = Trading View
Bitcoin trading chart on Bitstamp from January 5th to the present. Source = Trading View

The headline story is that Bitcoin has already updated its highest price for the third day. Around midnight today, Bitcoin reached a record high of $41962. The bitcoin price, which soon fell below $40,000, is trading at $39876 at 1pm.

“The price of bitcoin continues to rise as the demand for bitcoin with a fixed supply volume remains very high,” said Joel Ezerton, COO of Bitflyer’s US branch. “I don’t think about selling bitcoins because I expect it to go up.”

According to data company Glassnode, the number of bitcoins currently in circulation is 18,594,037. Compared to the enormous demand, it has established itself as a very rare asset. Chad Steinglass, head of trading at derivatives investment firm CrossTower, explained that more people want to have bitcoin in the long run, which will lead to higher prices.

“Both institutional and individual investors are eagerly buying bitcoin. Especially those who buy bitcoin now are those who want to hold bitcoin for a long time. The more bitcoins that can be traded in the market, the fewer and the more the actual supply will run. The price has no choice but to increase.”

Bitcoin currency volume (orange) and Bitcoin price over the past 5 years.  It is the half-life of two times, indicated by the dotted line.  Source = Glass Node
Bitcoin currency volume (orange) and Bitcoin price over the past 5 years. It is the half-life of two times, indicated by the dotted line. Source = Glass Node

BitFlyer’s Ezerton said, “As there was an atmosphere that I shouldn’t have the bitcoin that everyone else does, the demand has grown even more,” he said. “Cryptocarry transaction ( Crypto carry trade) is also actively taking place,” he explained.

The three stablecoins with the largest trading volume (USDT), US Dollar Coin (USDC), and Dai (DAI) have a combined market cap of $28 billion. According to CoinGecko, tether is by far the largest proportion of these, and 22,916.992,958 tethers worth $1 per token have been issued so far.

Last year's Tether market cap (= supply) Source = Coin Gecko
Last year’s Tether market cap (= supply) Source = Coin Gecko

“Looking back over the past year, the reason for buying bitcoin was so full and overflowing. The macroeconomic cycle, the Corona 19 pandemic, the US presidential election, and the anxiety that everyone had.

In the short term, I think the price of bitcoin may fall by 15% from now. However, the story of Bitcoin going to $100,000 this year is now recognized as a possible scenario.”-Henrik Kugelberg, OTC Bitcoin Trader

The Bitcoin derivatives market is also very active. Jason Lau, chief operating officer of the San Francisco-based exchange OKCoin, said on the 7th that close to $1 billion in derivatives transactions took place in one day.

“Most of the transactions were long-position liquidation (betting on rising bitcoin prices). It was the third highest volume day since last November.”

BitMEX also liquidated more than $100 million in Bitcoin derivatives over the past three days. Of these, $65 million worth of transactions was a derivative product purchase, and $42 million worth of derivatives was sold, which was the same concept as a margin call in the general market.

Bitcoin derivatives liquidation at BitMEX over the past 3 days.  Source = Skew
Bitcoin derivatives liquidation at BitMEX over the past 3 days. Source = Skew

In the options market, traders were rushing to commodities with a strike price of only $36,000, said Dennis Binokurov, head of research at Bequent.

Bitcoin option products by strike price.  Source = Skew
Bitcoin option products by strike price. Source = Skew

“Among the products due at the end of January, the reason why many orders are concentrated on products with a strike price of 36,000 dollars is due to the characteristics and risks of the option product itself.

In other words, it is a phenomenon that occurred purely according to the physiology of the option market, regardless of the characteristics of the underlying asset of Bitcoin. It will be interesting to see if the options market will differentiate between the inherent risks of bitcoin and the risks of the options market itself.”-Denis Binokurov

Ether futures open agreements, up to $3.7 billion

As of 1 p.m. this day, the Ethereum price was trading at 4.39% or $1213 in 24 hours.

On the 1st, the size of the Ether futures open agreement (OI) at major derivatives exchanges was about $2 billion. As of the 7th, outstanding contracts reached $3.7 billion, an 85% increase from that time. More than 20% of the total was open on Binance, with uncleared futures contracts on Binance worth $820 million.

Ether futures open contracts on major exchanges last month.  Source = Skew
Ether futures open contracts on major exchanges last month. Source = Skew

Brian Mossov, CEO of investment firm Ether Capital, points out that Ether has not yet reached its all-time high of $1400.

“Compared to Bitcoin, the investment interest in Ether was clearly much more withered. With the Chicago Commercial Exchange (CME) nearing the launch of the Ether futures contract, there is a possibility that investors who are already familiar with cryptocurrency will actively buy Ether.” -Brian Mosov

Stock market

  • Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index rose 2.36%: Oki Electronics announced a 9.6% increase.
  • Europe’s FTSE100 index rose 0.24%: Joe Biden’s new administration’s stimulus package continues to be expected to benefit the global economy.
  • U.S. S&P500 index up 0.55%: Market indicators continue to be bad, but expectations continue for new government stimulus measures. Analysis that the job index was also better than what was worried.

Goods

  • Western Texas heavy oil rose 3% to $52.48.
  • Gold fell 3.4% to $1848.

Government bonds

  • The 10-year Treasury bond yield rose 2.5% to 1.110%.

This story originally appeared on CoinDesk, the global leader in blockchain news and publisher of the Bitcoin Price Index. view BPI.
· Translated by NewsPeppermint.

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