[설 이후 부동산] ① The rising metropolitan area “I can’t see a reason to get off”

Input 2021.02.10 13:20

[편집자주] With the panic buying of real-demand homeless people, housing prices continue to rise nationwide. The government even announced the 25th real estate plan, with the aim of supplying 830,000 households nationwide. How will the real estate market flow when the New Year holidays are over and the spring moving season comes? I predicted the flow of real estate in Seoul, the metropolitan area, and local areas.

Most experts predicted that even after the Lunar New Year holiday, the housing market in Seoul, Gyeonggi, and Incheon will continue to rise. This is because the market atmosphere is unlikely to change as the 2·4 countermeasures do not include supply measures that can be immediately visible.

The Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport and the Seoul Metropolitan Government are in a position to speed up supply by establishing a council for the 2·4 supply countermeasures, but real estate experts predict that it will not be easy to resolve conflicts with land owners. They believe that as the expectation that it will be difficult to supply 300,000 households to Seoul in a short period of time has solidified, the buying trend of homeless end-users will not decline.

According to the real estate industry on the 10th, the momentum of the real estate market in Seoul is not expected to decline even after the Lunar New Year. This is because the environment in which it is difficult for the buying and selling demand of homeless end-users to decline continues. Experts believe that the jeonse crisis will continue as the supply of new housing in Seoul decreases this year.

◇ “There is no reason for housing prices in Seoul to fall”

According to the Korea Real Estate Agency, the rate of increase in apartment prices in Seoul in the first week of February, which was announced on the day the 2-4 real estate measures were announced, recorded 0.10%, which is 0.01 percentage points (p) higher than the fourth week of January (0.09%). This is the highest in seven months.

Experts in the real estate market analyzed that the demand for my home has not declined even though the government has made a notice that the government is releasing a previous-class policy. As the 2·4 countermeasures did not include specific supply plans, it was predicted that the demand for my house will continue due to anxiety.

Professor Shim Gyo-eon of Konkuk University’s Department of Real Estate said, “The government has come up with a number of plans, but most of them are supplied after 3 to 5 years,” he said. “It is difficult to expect a short-term effect of dampening the rise in house prices.”

The decline in supply of apartments in Seoul this year is also fueling anxiety. According to the Institute of Land, Infrastructure and Transport, 53,000 households were supplied to Seoul as new homes in 2020, but only 39,000 households are expected to be supplied in 2021 and 2022 on average. KB Kookmin Bank’s senior real estate expert committee member Park Won-gap said, “There are many end-users who have anxiety about the decrease in the supply of new housing. If it is judged that the 2·4 supply measures are not likely to be immediately visible, the anxiety will inevitably lead to a buying trend.” Said.

The government announced that it will apply fast track to the third new city in the metropolitan area, such as establishing a district plan and performing land compensation simultaneously, and there is an expectation that about 50 trillion won in land compensation costs will be released on the market. . When the land compensation fee is released, many return to the real estate market. It means that demand is going up. In the end, in terms of supply and demand, it is difficult to find the reason why the house price will fall, and there are only many reasons to rise.

◇ “Reduced occupancy and charter difficulties will continue”

Experts predicted that the jeonse would also continue. In particular, the jeonse crisis is highly likely to intensify as Lee-Chul approaches after the Lunar New Year holiday.

As a result of totaling the amount of real estate 114 houses expected to move in for two months from February to March, 33522 households will move in this year in the metropolitan area. This is less than in 2019 (45,826 households) and 2020 (35,079 households). The amount of new apartment occupancy plays a big role in supplying the charter. This is because many landlords put their homes on the rental market in order to pay the balance in jeonse.

Yeo Kyung-hee, senior researcher at Real Estate 114, said, “If the number of occupants is large, the rented price may stabilize, but it has decreased. In addition, in the case of regulated areas, the number of real estate owners, the landlords of new apartments, is increasing in order to meet the two-year real residence requirement “I am concerned that the supply is small.”

Young-jin Ham, head of Jikbang’s Big Data Lab, predicted, “The jeonse atmosphere will continue in that jeonse tenants who cannot renew their contracts will have to seek cheonsei at the level of 200~300 million won.”

◇ “Gyeonggi·Incheon house price rise is no different.”

According to the Korea Real Estate Agency, house prices in Gyeonggi-do have already risen 1.1% in January. In the first week of February when measures to supply real estate were announced, the rate of increase in house prices in Gyeonggi Province also reached 0.47%. The weekly increase rate for the second consecutive week hit an all-time high. Incheon (0.31%), although its uptrend slowed down compared to the previous week (0.35%), but continued a high rise.

Real estate experts analyze that this is because end-users who could not withstand the rising prices of houses in Seoul turned their attention to Gyeonggi-Incheon, where commuting to Seoul is possible. In the vicinity of the metropolitan metropolitan express train (GTX), demand is increasing. According to the Korea Real Estate Agency, Yangju (1.05%), Uijeongbu (0.79%), and Goyang (0.76%), which have good GTX traffic conditions, saw a significant increase.

Young-jin Ham, head of Jikbang Big Data Lab, said, “This year in Gyeonggi-Incheon, sales reports are coming out mainly for mid- to low-priced apartments. If the transaction volume is high even after the Lunar New Year holiday, then the prices of houses in Gyeonggi-Incheon will have to increase this year.”

It seems likely that the cheonsei difficulties will continue. In the case of Gyeonggi-Incheon, as pre-subscription for the 3rd new city is in progress from this year, demand for waiting for subscription is expected to support the jeonse price. As the 2·4 countermeasures came out, expectations for new housing designation increased, and the new public housing general lottery system eased the subscription threshold.

Expert Commissioner Park Won-gap said, “With the 2·4 countermeasures, the demand for waiting for subscription will inevitably increase, so it is difficult to find a factor that will lower the jeonse price.”