![[분석] Fear of a surge in interest rates from the US, all-round’post-storm’ in Korea](http://img.lb.inews24.com/facebookexternalhit/face/626x352/image_gisa/202102/1606119902529_1_152729.jpg "[분석] Fear of a surge in interest rates from the US, all-round’post-storm’ in Korea")
[아이뉴스24 김다운 기자] The surge in US Treasury yields is causing anxiety in financial markets around the world, fluctuating from the global stock market to the foreign exchange market. It is analyzed that domestic bond yields are also difficult to recover for the time being.
On the 25th (local time), the US 10-year Treasury bond rate soared to 1.6% during the intraday, plunging the US stock market, and the domestic financial market was swept away by a post-storm.
As of 2:47 pm on the 26th, the KOSPI index is down 3.35% from the previous day, and the KOSDAQ index is down 3.23%.
Domestic government bond yields also soared. According to the Korea Financial Investment Association, the 10-year Treasury bond yield as of the morning of the day was 1.956%, up 72bp (0.072%p) from the previous day, reaching 2%.
The value of the won has plummeted and the won/dollar exchange rate in the Seoul foreign exchange market is trading at 1222.90 won, up 1.36% (15.10 won) from the previous day.
In order to defend against the economic downturn caused by’Corona 19′, the US Federal Reserve has continued its ultra-low interest rate policy to provide funds to the market. However, the market interest rate is responding preemptively as the recent vaccine supply has eliminated the uncertainty of Corona 19 and the expectation of an economic recovery has risen. In addition, expectations of the new Biden administration’s stimulus measures also contributed to the rise in interest rates.
The rise in US Treasury yields continued, even though Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the US employment indicators are still sluggish and suggested that the Fed will maintain a zero-rate policy.
The rise in US interest rates is putting a burden on the asset market. The domestic market interest rate is also following the rise in US interest rates.
If the market interest rate rises, it may be reflected in the loan interest rate, increasing the burden on lenders. Fortunately, it is evaluated that the domestic lending rate is still stable.
Bank of Korea Governor Lee Ju-yeol held a meeting after a regular meeting of the Financial and Monetary Committee on the 25th and explained that “the long-term government bond interest rate has recently risen, but the short-term interest rate has stabilized and the overall loan interest rate rise is limited.”
It is explained that COPIX, which is the standard for mortgage loans, is showing a stable trend due to the effect of short-term interest rates, and corporate loan interest rates linked to bank bonds for less than one year or CD interest rates are not affected.
However, market experts predict that if the economy recovers from the economic downturn caused by Corona 19 and the mitigation measures are eased, inflation and interest rates may rise.
In the future, the variables of interest rate movement are expected to be the speed of vaccine supply, whether the BOK simply purchases KTBs, and whether the US Fed has additional easing policies.
Kyobo Securities analyst Baek Yoon-min said, “Despite the US Federal Reserve’s response, the market fear will not disappear easily.”
Shinhan Financial Investment Analyst Kim Myung-sil said, “It seems difficult for the time being to be sure that the market interest rate is stabilizing. “Until an additional easing policy signal comes out, factors related to supply and demand will act as a negative material for market interest rates.” .
Reporter Daun Kim [email protected]