![[부동산 2021] “The nationwide jeonse and sale all rise… Homeless people should think about living, multi-homed people should figure out their arms”](https://image.chosun.com/sitedata/image/202012/31/2020123101340_0.jpg "[부동산 2021] “The nationwide jeonse and sale all rise… Homeless people should think about living, multi-homed people should figure out their arms”")
Input 2020.12.31 21:00
“In 2021, jeonse and trading prices will rise nationwide while supporting each other”
“The worst real estate policy in 2020 is to strengthen the comprehensive real estate tax … to end the land transaction permit system in the new year”
“In short, home sales prices will rise nationwide in 2021. The main factors that will increase house prices are shortage of supply, liquidity in the market, low interest rates, buying sentiment of end-users such as renters, popularity of the pre-sale market, and inflation (inflation).
On the contrary, the factors that will come down are loan regulation, rising loan interest rates, fatigue from soaring prices, taxes, and the economic downturn. Increasing housing prices, such as supply and demand imbalances, are more dominant.”
In a recent interview with KB Kookmin Bank, Park Hap-soo, a senior real estate expert at KB Kookmin Bank, predicted that “the nationwide housing market will see a trend of rising sales and jeonse.” “It is time to think about selling and donating, considering the tax burden,” he said.
Regarding this, he pointed out, “In particular, Seoul is a structure that has no choice but to increase the price because’apartments’ are absolutely scarce,” and pointed out that the supply-demand imbalance in Seoul is the main cause of the housing market problem.
-Why is the house price rising while the population is decreasing?
“Although Seoul’s population is said to have decreased, the number of households, which is the actual unit of housing, has rather increased. Gyeonggi-do has increased both the population and the number of households. According to statistics in 2019, a total of 54,000 households increased in the metropolitan area alone.
There is also a structural problem in the Seoul housing market. Out of 2954,000 housing units, the ratio of multi-family housing units is close to 30%. The proportion of apartments in Seoul is about 58%, lower than the national average (62%). It is said that the quantity of apartments that should have been made by the redevelopment project remains the same.
In Gyeonggi Province, where a new city was established, the ratio of apartments is 69%, and Busan is 66%. The old city center is higher than that of Seoul as new cities such as Songdo and Cheongna, which are mainly villas, have been built. In addition, the houses in Seoul were very old. 45% of houses are more than 20 years old and 19% have been built more than 30 years. By simple calculation, about 550,000 households are over 30 years old.
However, the supply is insufficient. The number of occupants in Seoul in 2021 is less than in 2020. Even if you try to move to Gyeonggi-do, the amount of occupancy in Gyeonggi-do will also decrease from 2020, and Incheon will not change much for the next two years. In this situation, the supply shortage of new apartments has accumulated over the last 10 years, suppressing Seoul’s urban improvement projects. The result was an overheating of the subscription market and a surge in new apartment prices.”
-Wouldn’t there be a difference in house price movement depending on the region?
“I think it will rise nationwide. When housing prices rise, there is a phenomenon that leads to an increase in jeonse prices, and a phenomenon in which the rising jeonse prices support housing prices appears.
The sale price of Seoul super-high-end homes, which has risen a lot, will move from the strong bond in 2021, but the rise of mid- to low-priced apartments is highly likely to continue. With the rapid rise of house prices to Incheon and Gyeonggi, where there are many mid- to low-priced houses under 900 million won, 2021 will be the era of Gyeonggi-do and Incheon.
There is also a high possibility of rising fat. Looking at the housing price trend in November 2020, Busan Haeundae-gu and Suyeong-gu, which were designated as adjustment targets, and Pohang, Seongsan-gu and Uichang-gu, Changwon, and Daegu, where only Suseong-gu were regulated, were on the rise, and Ulsan began to rebound to V (V). In Daejeon, where the uptrend had slowed, the rate of increase in housing prices is on the rise, and Gwangju, which has been strong, is running short in the new year. Jeju also seems to have finished building up house prices.”
“You need to prepare for a house while keeping an eye on the status of the rental market according to the amendment of the lease law, such as the right to apply for contract renewal and the monthly limit system. You have to plan to purchase the product: “I will buy this complex, which is currently worth 1 billion won, if it comes out at 900 million won”.
In the pre-sale market, the low pre-sale price is attractive due to the pre-sale price limit. The 3rd new town should also be familiar with the terms of subscription and prepare for the period of residence in the relevant area in advance. You should not let go of your interest in general sales or auctions that come out as a quick sale.”
-1 if you are a homeowner.
“One homeowner should consider various tax-free benefits and set up a strategy to move to an area where future value will increase after 10 years. If you have lived in one house for more than 10 years, you will not have much additional benefits since the long-term special deduction for long-term holdings is not enough. If a house is not available, it is recommended to change to a new apartment by receiving the benefit from the transfer tax exemption for one household and one house.
It should be noted that from the new year, the special long-term deduction rate will be applied separately for each period of retention and period of residence. If temporary two-households are sold within three years (one year in the adjusted area), the acquisition tax rate is applied at 1.1~3.5%.
Recently, the importance of the residential environment among the criteria for choosing a housing such as education, transportation, residential environment, and convenience facilities has been on the rise. Houses along the banks of the Han River and Yongsan Park with good residential environments such as green areas and views of the Han River will continue to increase in value.”
-Multi-homed people.
“You have to decide whether to hold it based on whether you can afford the rising tax. Starting from June 1, 2021, the basic transfer tax rate (6~45%) is 20% points for 2 homeowners and 30% for 3 homeowners or more. In areas subject to adjustment, special deductions for long-term holdings cannot be received, and sales must be initiated around March.
Considering the transfer tax, it is a rule to sell houses with a small margin from the sale, but if you own a high-priced house, you should also check the estimated valuation tax. For apartments scheduled for reconstruction, it is decided whether or not to sell them based on the establishment of a cooperative and the reconstruction charge, and the speed of the project progress is important for houses that are scheduled for redevelopment. If it is redeveloped into an apartment complex, it is scarce.
If it is difficult to sell, it is worth considering after weighing the estimated tax amount for the sale and gift of direct existence. In the case of donations, it should be taken into account that the acquisition tax rate for houses of 300 million won or more in the adjusted area is 13.2~13.4%.
However, you have to be cautious about buying more.”
-What do you see as the biggest real estate failure in 2020?
“This is the July 10 measure, which doubled the total real estate tax rate. The tax rate in the range of 1.2 to 5 billion has been raised from 1.8% to 3.6%, which is unimaginable in most countries. If you paid 40 million won in 2020, this is a new year’s plan. If you include property tax, you have to pay close to 90 million won.
Is the goal of strengthening the taxation tax to secure tax revenue? If the policy goal is to stabilize housing prices, the effect is likely not to be seen. It is said to sell because it feels a burden to own a home, but since the middle of the capital gains tax for multi-homed people is maintained, there is no retreat. That is why donations increase and they do not appear for sale in the housing market.”
-Was there any good policy?
“It’s a difficult question. If you have a positive policy, it’s the 8·4 measure, which contains plans to expand the supply of housing in the metropolitan area. This is because it is a supply measure to the downtown area after the announcement of the 3rd new town development plan that supplies housing to the outskirts of Seoul. .
-The government is said to stabilize the housing market by supplying high-quality rental housing to the middle class.
“Providing rental housing for wanting to own a house is not a solution. Rather, it may infringe on private property rights or freedom of choice. Buying or renting a house is a matter of individual choice, and 60-70% of the people say ‘ “I have to have my own home.” Another important thing is that the apartment preference is over 80%.”
-If so, what countermeasures are needed?
“To stabilize the housing market, we need to supply apartments quickly, simultaneously and in large quantities.
In the short term, the heavy transfer tax for multi-homeowners should be deferred regardless of the holding period, so that the property can be put on the housing market. Why do you feel burdened with the transfer tax when the house price has risen? If I pay the transfer tax, will I be refunded the property tax or tax levied during the holding period? no. Considering the tax, loan interest, and inflation rate that have been paid so far, there is not much money left when selling a house while paying heavy transfer tax. If the tax is to be paid anyway, you choose a gift, and the property is locked.
Next, the volume of the 3rd new town should be increased to at least 300,000 households. The 3rd new town was planned as Namyangju Wangsuk, Incheon Gyeyang, Hanam Gyosan, Goyang Changneung, Bucheon Daejang, 5 places, and 173,000 houses.The 1st new cities, Bundang, Ilsan, Pyeongchon, Sanbon, and the Middle East, are 292,000. .
It is necessary to increase the floor area ratio of residential land in the third new city and convert to industrial map residential land that is 10% or more of the total urban area. The green area ratio should also be reduced. One-third of the city’s area is park area, which is excessive. Looking at the percentage of green space in the first new town, Bundang is 19% and Ilsan is 20%. Should the park area be converted to residential land, the housing market will not stabilize due to increased housing supply?
The second term Incheon Geomdan New City land compensation amount was 3 trillion won. Although it was 10 years ago, it supplied 75,000 households with 3 trillion won. The sale of the Yongsan Camp Kim site, the Yongsan Maintenance Center, the Seoul Medical Center in Samseong-dong, and the Seoul Regional Public Procurement Service in Banpo-dong can raise 6 to 7 trillion won. Even if the price of land has doubled now, the funds will be able to secure land to supply 100,000 households.
Seoul is planning to develop a low-density area and a station area, but the low-density area is an area where villas are concentrated. It is subject to redevelopment. The use of semi-industrial areas should also be limited to ancillary means. In Seongsu-dong and Munrae-dong, Seoul, land prices have increased and the area is small. Knowledge industry centers and apartments have also been newly built.”
-What are the policies that should not be implemented in 2021?
“I have already done all the regulations, but is there anything more to do… It will be about expanding the land transaction permission zone.
The land transaction permit system is a policy with only side effects. As Seoul regulated Cheongdam-dong, Samseong-dong, and Daechi-dong, apartment prices in Gaepo-dong and Dogok-dong increased. After catching Jamsil-dong, the price of Shincheon-dong Parkrio went up. It is a regulation that only end-users disappear, but there are already many other regulations that must meet the two-year residency requirement.
This regulation was enforced because of the favorable developments such as the Metropolitan Express Railway (GTX) and Hyundai Motor Group’s Global Business Center (GBC), in which the prices of neighboring houses might rise, and GBC alone is expected to be completed in 2026. Rather, there was only a balloon effect in which the prices of houses in the unspecified surrounding areas rose and the housing market was distorted.”