![[부동산 2021] “I can’t conclude that it’s the second half of the platform… There is no decline without supply.”](https://image.chosun.com/sitedata/image/202101/03/2021010300755_0.jpg "[부동산 2021] “I can’t conclude that it’s the second half of the platform… There is no decline without supply.”")
Input 2021.01.04 06:00
“Seoul Gangnam will rise next year… End users will go to Nodo River and Geumgwan-gu”
“To capture the price of a house, we have to increase supply. Deregulation of maintenance business is a sign of price fluctuations”
“I can’t determine whether the real estate market is in the second half of the bull market. The main culprit for raising real estate prices is the shortage of supply, and the supply policy that should be promoted as the first priority is in progress at the end. Only when private maintenance projects are implemented, the real estate market is in progress. This will stabilize. If you try to work only in the public sector as you are now, there are limits.”
-What is the biggest obstacle to stabilizing home prices in Seoul?
“There is a shortage of supply. Low interest rates and a lot of circulating funds can be a factor in the rise of house prices, but they are not the main culprit. The government recently announced some supply measures, but it is not supplying the supply that end users want.”
If the private maintenance project is not activated this year, it is not easy to catch the price. I’m cautious to forecast, but for apartments in Seoul, the perceived increase rate will exceed 10%.”
-There is a prospect that Gangnam will climb the most among Seoul.
“I agree. Gangnam is’Seoul among Seoul’. Everyone wants to buy it because of its good educational environment and location. It is also an area where reconstructed apartments are concentrated in Daechi-dong and Apgujeong-dong, so they are bound to be interested. Is burdensome, but it is still possible for the rich, cash-rich people to buy.
The wide-range currency (M2) fund, which can be easily converted into cash, is also worth 3150 trillion won as of October. It is a tremendous amount of money that remains even after buying the KOSPI twice. Looking at this alone, Gangnam is bound to be a market where house prices do not drop.
Mid- and low-priced apartments worth 500 million to 900 million won in Seoul’s Nodo River (Nowon, Dobong, Gangbuk) and Geumgwan-gu (Geumcheon, Gwanak, Guro-gu) will continue to attract attention. This is because end users such as homeless people will find houses with an available amount in Seoul as there is no supply and the rent for rent increases due to the jeonse crisis. This year, it will be the biggest deal in apartments at this price point.”
-‘Nodogang’ and’Geumgwan-gu’ rose a lot last year.
“You can go up further. Mok-dong has 25,000 households from Complex 1 to Complex 14, but in Sanggye-dong there are 35,000 houses in complexes 1-16. How much will the price difference be when rebuilding the same way. I think it will be much narrower than now. For example, 84㎡ of exclusive area for Sanggye Jugong Complex 8, which is currently occupied, exceeds 1.5 billion. 84㎡ of Acro Riverheim in Heukseok-dong was sold for 2 billion, which is not very different.
In the blind spots of public transport, where prices have not risen much, for example, Bun-dong is bound to be noticed. The construction of the Northeast Line light railroad started in July last year, and it passed through Bun-dong. In addition to this, it is also worth paying attention to the large-scale apartment complexes in the area where the Western Line light rail passes.”
-How do you forecast the local market?
“As the preference for new apartments penetrates deep into local metropolitan cities, prices are expected to rise mainly in new complexes. Subscription competition is also expected to become fiercer. In particular, Sejong, where the entire town is a new apartment, is receiving demand from nearby Cheongju or Daejeon. Will absorb.
However, in rural areas, housing prices tend to rise, centered on jobs. In some areas, vacancy has been exhausted, but it is unlikely that there will be a big change in house prices unless the job problem is resolved. But, isn’t it difficult for investment demand to enter amid strong regulations for multi-homeowners?”
-In fact, the whole country is a regulated area. Will the demand for investment remain?
“Now, it has become a story in a novel that people in Seoul take a tour bus and sweep things out of non-regulated areas. After the July 10 measures, which intensively regulated multi-homed people, it became difficult for rental companies to invest in apartments. It is said that it is difficult to view foreigners who have recently flowed into unregulated areas as investors.
Nevertheless, the reason why foreigners are still buying is due to money problems such as price differences and loan restrictions. This is the result of end users moving from one place to another to find a home because the degree of loans in Seoul and Gyeonggi-do are different. Likewise in the provinces, the house prices in Busan are too high, so if you cross the Geoga Bridge, you can go to Changwon or Geoje, where you can go to work.”
-House prices have risen steeply for several years. Is it the second half of the upturn now?
“It cannot be concluded that this is the second half of the rise. Above all, there is no clear supply signal. Isn’t the reconstruction that has been approved for the current project is also being delayed. If the pre-sale price cap has not been implemented, Dunchon Jugong, which is a’mini new city level’ scale, is already in place. I would have sold it.
Easing the standards for reconstruction safety assessment, removing the ceiling on pre-sale prices, and adjusting the contributions could be signals to determine whether real estate prices will peak. This is because the supply will become active as construction companies rush into the maintenance business at that time.”
-Is there any other way other than supply?
“Even when I look back on the past, the supply of den to catch house prices was the best. Nothing has a price control function as much as the supply. This was the case in the Lee Myung-bak administration, when the Wirye New Town and Magok District were supplied. In the Kim Dae-jung administration, 80 loans were made when buying houses after the IMF crisis. The house price was revived when the percentage was released, and the Roh Moo-hyun government introduced and regulated the total debt repayment ratio (DTI), but the house price was not caught.
Looking back, the reason the price went up at that time was not because of loans, but because housing was not supplied during the IMF. Construction companies went bankrupt and went bankrupt. How would you supply them? As the economy revived without supply, only the price went up. As the price was not caught, the Roh Moo-hyun administration finally announced plans to supply Wirye New Town and Magok District, and the Lee Myung-bak and Park Geun-hye administrations enjoyed the fruits. In some way, it might be a little unfair.”
“Yes. Due to the low interest rate, chartered sales are being converted to monthly rent, and the rental market is not circulating as existing sales have been reduced by the second lease method. The amount of new apartment sales is not coming out because of the two-year mandatory residence requirement. He fell into’three used’.
The charter price is also inevitable to rise along with the trading price. Tenants prefer economical cheonsei over monthly rent, but the quantity is precious and they go to the market. Also, due to the introduction of the right to apply for renewal of the contract, the price may increase every time the four-year contract ends.
The anti-war trend is also likely to be very popular this year. It will increase as tenants and landlords find a compromise in the middle ground between cheonsei and monthly rent.”
-What strategies should homeless people plan in this situation?
“You can use the funding plan as a guide. We recommend buying bank money, parental money, my money, etc., if conditions are available. If the funding plan is not in place, aim for an offer. Considering additional points and competing in the general supply, rather than a newlywed couple or It is good to aim for a special supply of multiple children.
In general, subscription is a method of paying out funds in installments, so it has the advantage of being able to afford an intermediate payment loan for 2-3 years after winning. End-users who have enough funding are recommended to just buy. You won’t regret it. There is a possibility that only waiting for the subscription, but not until the day of death.”
-Is it only for Seoul?
“No. It applies to the metropolitan area. In particular, it is good to think about the purchase, focusing on areas where the metropolitan transportation network is connected. The metropolitan metropolitan express train (GTX), light rail, and Seoul subway are scheduled to be built or already pass. You have to think that today is the cheapest price for apartments in these areas. If you don’t admit today’s price while thinking about yesterday’s price, you will end up not being able to buy it.”
-There are more and more self-help buzzwords related to real estate, such as’thunderbolt’.
“Homeless people are in a situation where they have to sit still and take blood pressure medication. This is not the Three Kingdoms era, and it is not the era of hearing other people through rumors. We live in a world where real-time examples are shared online. Naturally, relatively relatively It’s a comparison. I have no choice but to feel the difference between the person who made my home and the person who didn’t.”
-What is the policy that you consider as the biggest mistake among the last year’s policies?
“It is a policy that strengthened various taxes such as possession tax, transfer tax, acquisition tax. It was excessively regulated. If blood is not circulated in the human body, it is necessary to open the retreat as if it is impossible to live, but the existing property is suffering from arteriosclerosis. In particular, the ownership tax is imposed. If it is raised sharply, the tenant will eventually suffer damage, which means that the end consumer will be able to pay the tax.
In addition, policies that do not consider end users are also disappointing. The loan policy is to help end-users to buy a house, but as the price of the house rises, the number of houses that can receive loans is constantly decreasing. Nevertheless, only the regulated areas are increasing. If it wasn’t designated as a regulated area, it could have been bought, but the price would only increase due to the tied up. It’s very sad.”
-If there are any indicators or figures that you should pay attention to this year.
“It is the flow of interest rates and liquidity, volume of transactions. Interest rates are unlikely to move for the time being. However, as real estate is an underlying area affected by market trends, you need to pay attention. The same goes for the flow of money. You have to look at whether you are going to real estate, staying in, etc. Real estate transaction volume is also an important indicator. You should look at the real estate market by referring to these things.”
-What is the topic of the real estate market this year?
“Supply will also become a hot topic. Interest will be focused on how the government plans to pre-subscribe to the 3rd new city and how to supply youth housing in the station area. In the case of the 3rd new city, it maximizes the dispersion effect of demand concentrated in Seoul. In order to do this, the wide-area transportation network or self-sufficiency function must be established, and the situation in the real estate market may change depending on how they are going.
Youth housing will also be a hot topic. Youth housing is a part that is also focused on in the personal YouTube channel’Go Junseok TV’. Most of the youth houses around the station area are owned by the private sector, and you can see how to attract them and whether they should be built only in the station area. Young people want to enter a house that acts as a residential ladder while living in a house-like house rather than a matchbox-like house. It is time to discuss whether or not to build a youth house with a forced choonhyang style.