[박현영의 워싱턴 살롱] “Balanced diplomacy between the US and China, Korea, the time to choose will come”

Balanced diplomacy between the US and China

Balanced diplomacy between the US and China

The first high-level talks between the US and China since the inauguration of the Joe Biden administration will be held in Anchorage, Alaska on the 18th (local time). From the US side, Secretary of State Tony Blingen and White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan will attend, and from the Chinese side, Yang Jietz, a political officer in charge of diplomatic affairs at the Communist Party, and Wang Yi, a member of the diplomatic affairs department and head of foreign affairs, will attend.

New establishment of US-China relations in the Biden Era
Korea’s willingness to join Quad is key
China should not engage in North Korean nuclear program without compensation

This talk is the starting point for the trajectory of US-China relations over the next four years. In order to find out the relationship between the two countries in Biden’s era and their impact on Korea, I interviewed with video last month with Win-Sun, co-director of the East Asia Program at Washington Think Tank Stimson Center.

He is of Chinese descent and is one of the leading US-China relations experts in Washington. He predicted that Korea’s pursuit of balanced diplomacy between the United States and China will certainly have advantages, but the point of choice will come. The following is one question and one answer.

Win-Sun Stimson Center, co-director of East Asia Program. [사진 윈 선]

Win-Sun Stimson Center, co-director of East Asia Program. [사진 윈 선]

The reason why President Biden succeeds former President Donald Trump as much as Chinese policy is?
While Trump’s Chinese policy may be an aggressive and hardened approach, there is a bipartisan consensus in the United States. Although Trump may have pursued a certain style, the nature of the policy has received widespread support. China has not changed before and after the US regime change. It means that China has not given Biden the motivation to change.

He hasn’t even withdrawn the high tariffs that Trump has imposed.
When dealing with tariffs, you need to be prepared to answer all questions related to trade policy with China. How to deal with unfair trade practices? What is your position on semiconductor regulation? The trade dispute between the US and China is complex and widespread. I think it is prudent to maintain tariffs until a full trade policy is in place.

US Secretary of State Tony Blincoln. [AFP=연합뉴스]

US Secretary of State Tony Blincoln. [AFP=연합뉴스]

Prior to the first talks with China, the Biden administration worked diligently. It coordinated closely with not only Asia but also European countries. Biden’s principle of public diplomacy is to “strengthen the alliance to check China together”.

A senior U.S. administration official said, “In fact, all countries in Asia, Europe, and many other countries have extensively confirmed their views on Asia and China.” “He explained.

Jake Sullivan, U.S. White House National Security Advisor. [EPA=연합뉴스]

Jake Sullivan, U.S. White House National Security Advisor. [EPA=연합뉴스]

The diplomacy of the “China pressure” by the United States began on the 12th at the Quad summit, a consultative group of the U.S., Japan, Australia, and India to check China. At the first quad summit, “President Biden discussed the challenge posed by China with other leaders,” National Security Adviser Sullivan said.

“Free, open and democratic values”, announced in a joint statement by the Quad Leaders, is a diplomatic term with criticism that China rejects freedom and openness. For example, “free and open voyage” is the logic of “freedom of navigation” by the United States toward China, which intends to make the South China Sea territorial.

Do you think the US has plans to recruit Korea by expanding the quad to’Quad Plus’?
Strengthening alliances and partners is a priority for Biden’s policy. The Indo-Pacific Strategy and Quads are a good framework to put this into practice. More countries will be added to the quad. I think the more important question is whether Korea is willing to join Quad. The policy community should ask the South Korean government if it is willing to join the US-led solidarity targeting China and take either side.

Will the Biden administration press the same as the Trump administration?
Compared to Trump, Biden’s approach will be less coercive for allies and partners. But the point is that the time will come when Korea will have to choose between the US and China in Huawei (a Chinese communications equipment company), 5G (5G) mobile communications, and quads. The advantage of staying in the middle is neutrality and balanced diplomacy. But there will be limits. there is no answer. I think the location of South Korea, which is attached to North Korea and very close to the Chinese sphere of influence, has some implications.

  Yang Jietsu, a political officer in charge of diplomacy in the Communist Party of China. [AP=연합뉴스]

Yang Jietsu, a political officer in charge of diplomacy in the Communist Party of China. [AP=연합뉴스]

The Biden administration said it would cover all agendas between the two countries at high-level talks between the US and China. Specifically, he announced that he would clearly and directly emphasize concerns such as the violation of human rights of the Xinjiang Uighurs, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and economic boycotts against Australia.

Among these issues, Xinjiang, Hong Kong, and Taiwan have been regarded by China as interference in internal affairs. However, a high-ranking official in the US administration opened up the issue of cooperation between the United States and China, saying, “We will also open up the possibility of areas where policies can be adjusted or coordinated, such as problems related to climate change or proliferation.”

  Wang Yi is a member of the State Council and Minister of Foreign Affairs in China. [신화=연합뉴스]

Wang Yi is a member of the State Council and Minister of Foreign Affairs in China. [신화=연합뉴스]

Biden wants China to be more involved in the North Korean nuclear issue. Will China respond?
The Trump administration also initially wanted China’s involvement. In April 2017, Trump even publicly proposed that China would favor a trade agreement if China cooperates on the North Korean nuclear issue. When all US administrations look into the North Korean issue after its inauguration, they instinctively think that China should be pressured. However, the US has never achieved the desired results. This is because there is no incentive for China. I don’t think China will do more unless there are significant rewards that Biden can put on the negotiating table.

Could the denuclearized Korean peninsula be an incentive for China?
I think China also wants to denuclearize the Korean Peninsula. China has three goals for the Korean Peninsula. The first is stability, the second is peace, and the third is the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. The order is important. If denuclearization could only be achieved through instability, China would not support it. Denuclearization is a goal, but not the only one.

Washington = Correspondent Park Hyun-young [email protected]


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