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[머니콕] Even into the new year, the domestic stock market continues to rise. KOSPI surpassed the 3000 line of the closing price on the 7th. It has been 13 years and 6 months since it exceeded the KOSPI 2000 in July 2007. Anticipation for the Corona 19 vaccine and the outlook for improving corporate profits are the background of the strong, but as the stock market is getting ahead of the real economy recovery, concerns about the market overheating are growing.
In the first ever KOSPI 3,000 era, what are some of the thoughts of large-scale wealthy people in Gangnam, the center of Korea’s wealth? To Kim Hyun-seop, Deputy Director of the Dogok Star PB Center, KB Kookmin Bank, where Maeil Economy’s’Moneycock’ is in charge of the asset management of large wealthy people in Gangnam, Seoul, the recent trends of the Gangnam wealthy, this year’s stock and real estate market forecast, promising financial products, etc. I asked for information. PB Kim Hyun-seop, a certified financial planner, has been active as a representative PB of Kookmin Bank for over 10 years.
PB Kim told the atmosphere that even large-scale wealthy people in Gangnam, who had only been rolling their assets mainly on real estate or bank deposits, have recently turned to stock investment, and that interest in the stock market is still growing even after the KOSPI 3,000 breakthrough. He emphasized, “Because no one can assert market forecasts such as the possibility of short-term adjustment, it is most important to diversify investment assets and investment timing (timing).”
He added that Korea and China stock markets are promising by country this year, and that it is necessary to expand the portfolio to economic-sensitive industries such as steel, chemicals, shipbuilding, and transportation rather than focusing on the growth stocks of electricity and electronics (IT). As promising products, high dividend stock exchange funds (ETF), eco-friendly New Deal Fund, and Gold Bar Trust were recommended.
The following is the full text of the interview.
Q. How many VVIP customer assets are you currently managing?
A. Individual customers’ assets are about 170 billion won. There are many customers with financial assets of more than 3 billion won, and their total personal assets are over 10 billion won.
Q. I am curious about the forecast for this year by major asset. First, what about the stock market.
A. The economic recovery is expected to continue in 2021 on the back of economic stimulus measures and low interest rates. However, as the issuance of government bonds will increase to respond to Corona 19, even a slight increase in interest rates will be expected, reducing the attractiveness of bond investment. Until now, growth stocks centered on the US and big tech have been focused on the outlook for economic recovery, but now it is necessary to diversify the portfolio into an economically sensitive industry that can see profit improvement while the price burden is relatively low. Above all, it is convincing that the eco-friendly industry will become a mega trend and take over the growth of big tech.
Among the emerging economies, we recommend Korea and China, who have financial resources and will benefit from the growing global trade. At present, there is a feeling that the stock market is showing too much anticipation for the economic recovery due to the continued economic stimulus measures and the development of the Corona 19 vaccine. If the economy recovers, the stimulus measures will decrease, and accordingly, it would be unreasonable for the stock market in 2021 to expect a return as much as last year.
Let me tell you based on a recent example. The stock market in 2017 was very good, and based on this, most financial institutions had a good outlook for stock prices in early 2018. However, it ended in decline due to trade disputes between the US and China In early 2019, the trade dispute between the US and China was expected to continue, and it was expected to be unfavorable, but it rose sharply. In early 2020, the prospect was rosy, but in the first half of the year, it plunged to Corona 19. After all, diversification is more important than forecast-based investment, which diversifies investment assets and investment timing.
Q. The first intraday KOSPI exceeded 3000 on the 6th. I am curious about the trend of large asset prices.
A. There were quite a few customers who were not interested in investing in risky assets and only made time deposits, but nowadays, more and more customers are inquiring about fund or stock investment, and some have actually started investing. Since the interest rate for term deposits is less than 1% per year, there are many people who do not know well about the stocks, but buy representative Samsung Electronics stocks, whether it rises or falls, the dividend income is significantly higher than the term deposit interest rate.
Q. How about real estate? Perhaps there will be differentiation by region as well.
A. In terms of real estate, I would like to briefly mention the opinion of Park Hap-soo, head of the Kookmin Bank’s real estate team. The rental car market is unlikely to be good due to the decline in the rate of return due to the lower monthly rent. The trading market is expected to strengthen due to the liquidity effect as low interest rates and land compensation funds are released. I agree with this opinion.
Q. Please select three promising financial products this year in order.
A. This is the preferred dividend ETF (KB STAR high dividend ETF). Dividend stock has not risen compared to the rise in the big tech and untact sectors, and the gap is expected to increase as the gap narrows due to the economic stimulus and vaccine effects. It consists of 25% of Samsung Electronics, 8% of Hyundai Motors, and financial companies such as KB Financial Group, sensitive economies such as POSCO, and high dividend paying stocks such as SK Telecom. Apart from the stock price fluctuations, this ETF is expected to receive a dividend gain of about 3% per year. I think it is very attractive compared to the current 1-year term deposit rate.
Next, we recommend the New Deal Fund (KB Star Korea New Deal Fund). Despite the short-term surge, the eco-friendly sector is likely to become a megatrend. Although the surge in return can be a burden, the fund invests in high-growth industries, including eco-friendly, rechargeable batteries, IT, healthcare, and entertainment.
Finally, we recommend that you pay attention to spot gold investments.
Q. How about this year’s gold investment that bank customers are interested in?
A. Gold prices are expected to remain flat or rise as the dollar is expected to weaken and real interest rates are unlikely to rise. Investors worry a lot about the drop in the value of the currency as the money is released. The countermeasure to this would be real investment, but real estate is heavily regulated and the stock market is separate. Then, gold investment would be an alternative. KRX gold spot is transparent because it is the international gold price in dollars times the exchange rate. Most of all, gains from trading are non-taxable and gold is spot, but it does not pay 10% VAT.
In terms of asset diversification, there is also a lot of interest in the US dollar, which has recently plunged in exchange rates. Since the US dollar has a strong long-term bearish outlook, we recommend investing in gold with exchange rates rather than the dollar. There are a lot more institutions like Macquarie who see gold price declines, but they see gold prices rise. We recommend investing in the long term, looking at gold investment as a medium-to-long term of 3, 5, and 10 years compared to other investments.
Q. Please introduce the recent remarkable movements of VVIP customers.
A. There are many requests for tax inquiries related to real estate, especially on the method of tax reduction in general real estate tax. In the case of multi-homed people, there are some who are wondering whether to sell an apartment by the end of May this year (the median transfer tax rate increases from June), or whether to pay the acquisition tax and gift tax for a 12% gift. However, many asset owners have already given or sold their children.
As mentioned earlier, there seems to be an increasing number of conservative bank customers who are interested in equity investment. It seems that the stock market is so hot that I hear about the profits made here and there and ask questions. Not only the asset price, but also my college student’s nephew is investing in stock by collecting allowances from relatives and working part-time. My son also joined the military last month, and he made a stock account with the money he received from his relatives, bought stock, and joined the army. We talk about a lot of liquidity, but there is a lot of money released, but the interest rate is so low and the stock market is good, so it seems that the overall propensity to invest is significantly higher than before.
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