[단독]”Operation rights were transferred within the term of the government, but the year of conversion was confirmed.”

The government changed the core goal of converting the wartime operational control (option). Multiple government sources said on the 24th that the government is in discussions with the United States focusing on “determining the year of conversion this year” by changing the original goal of “transition of opposition within the term of President Moon Jae-in (May next year)”.

Prior to the transition of OPCON, the ROK-US military authorities are undergoing a three-step verification to evaluate whether the ROK military has the ability to exercise OPCON. Accordingly, the first phase (basic operational capabilityㆍIOC) verification was completed in 2019, and the second phase (complete operational capabilityㆍFOC) was planned to be completed last year. However, the second stage verification has been postponed to this year as the joint training could not be held properly due to the aftermath of the novel coronavirus infection (Corona 19).

One source familiar with the OPCON transition plan said, “To complete the transition within the term of President Moon Jae-in (May next year), both phases 2 and 3 (full mission capability, FMC) must be completed this year. The verification cannot be done in the same year,” he said. “So, even after completing the second stage of verification this year, the transition within the term of office is impossible.” Due to these circumstances, the government changed the direction of negotiations with the US to’determine the transition year’ this year. This time, it is interpreted as a plan to nail the year of OPCON transition to prevent the next government from changing the transition plan.
One source said, “Unlike the Lee Myung-bak and Park Geun-hye administrations that delayed or abolished the turnover in 2012 set by the Roh Moo-hyun administration, the government’s intention is to ensure that no matter what regime enters, the roadmap agreed upon by the ROK-US is not changed. In order to save power, we plan to finalize the transition year with the United States after completing only the second stage of verification.”

The specific transition year is set by the 53rd Korea-US Security Council (SCM) scheduled to be held this fall in Seoul. Another source who is bright in the practice between the ROK and US authorities said, “It is correct to complete the second phase verification by this summer at the latest in the process, and evaluate the ROK-US together and set the transition year in SCM.” “If the transition year is determined in consideration of supplementary matters, the final evaluation, the three-stage verification, is scheduled to be carried out in the year just before the transition,” he explained.

Therefore, passing the second stage verification this year is the key to confirming the transition year within the Moon Jae-in administration’s term. However, the trend of Corona 19 and the judgment of the new US administration by Joe Biden remain variables.

Currently, the ROK-US military authorities are not able to confirm the schedule of combined training for the first half of the year with two-step verification due to the re-proliferation of Corona 19 in the metropolitan area. The military authorities are coordinating with the U.S. military over a plan to open joint exercises for phase 2 verification from March 8 to 18.

The USFK has begun vaccination against Corona 19, but the ROK military has only planned vaccinations, so whether or not the ROK-US joint exercises remain variable. If the combined training is delayed to the second half of the year (August-September), it is difficult to report the evaluation of the second stage verification to the SCM. In this regard, a military official said, “Even if the training scale is reduced due to the quarantine problem, the plan to proceed with the second stage verification within this year will not change.”

It is unclear what position the US Biden administration will maintain on the OPCON transition. This is because unlike the Trump administration, which publicly discussed even the reduction of US troops in Korea, the Biden administration emphasizes the traditional military role of the United States. A former high-ranking official who had negotiated the ROK-US OPCON transition for several years at the time of the Barack Obama administration said, “President Biden and his staff are well-rounded people.” We will look closer,” he predicted.

During the Park Geun-hye administration, the opposition transition agreed by the two countries in 2014 consists of three conditions: ① securing core military capabilities of the ROK military, securing capabilities to respond to North Korean nuclear and missile threats, and satisfying a stable Korean Peninsula and regional security environment consistent with the transition of opposition rights. It is also a matter of how the Biden administration officials interpret this.

A former government official who wanted anonymity pointed out that “the ultimate means of dealing with North Korea’s nuclear weapons in particular is the US nuclear umbrella for now, but the US has doubts whether nuclear deterrence will be possible if the situation comes with a four-star general commanding the CFC.” did. He said, “The military should be faithful to military judgment, it is difficult to’assault forward’ to the goal set by the political power.”

Reporters Cheoljae Lee and Sangjin Kim [email protected]